Katsina State

Rooftop solar in Safana, Katsina: what the roofs are worth

Safana has 91,720 buildings with a viable rooftop and 668 MWp of roof capacity. 16% run a generator, and together they spend ₦25.4bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

91,720

Usable roof area

3.02 km²

668 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦25.4bn/yr

22 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

7.9 yr

Median IRR 13% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Safana

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦25.4bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦22.8bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.18tn

NPV₦186bn

Median IRR13%

Median payback7.9 yr

Unlocked energy16.5 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity88.4 MWp

Capex₦95.2bn

Year-one energy value₦106bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.96tn

NPV₦863bn

Median IRR109%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Safana's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 88.4 MWp
Capital cost: ₦95.2bn
Year 1 savings: ₦106bn/yr
NPV: ₦863bn
Median IRR: 109%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Safana pays back quickly

Of the 91,298 buildings in Safana with a modelled payback, 38.9% pay back inside five years and 16.4% inside three.

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How much of Safana's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Safana consume 42.1 GWh/yr but want 58.6 GWh/yr. The 28% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Safana

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Safana actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 91,298 buildings with a modelled result out of 91,720 in Safana. 44,021 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years14,933 (16%)

Under 5 years35,494 (39%)

Under 7 years44,089 (48%)

Under 10 years56,381 (62%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%52,311 (57%)

Above 15%44,021 (48%)

Above 20%38,511 (42%)

Above 25%29,347 (32%)

CO₂ avoided

41.8 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

11.4 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

16.5 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

288k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Safana.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Safana

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	35,975	4,897	₦8.69bn	₦7.42bn	11%	8.6 yr
E	31,960	4,982	₦6.69bn	₦5.98bn	11%	9.1 yr
C	18,133	2,910	₦6.54bn	₦6.11bn	15%	7.1 yr
B	5,652	2,101	₦3.42bn	₦3.29bn	29%	3.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	91,048	14,336	₦18.4bn	₦17.7bn	13%	8.1 yr
Anchor	264	205	₦6.23bn	₦4.38bn	65%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	253	225	₦63.5m	₦63.5m	73%	1.4 yr
Commercial General	155	124	₦633m	₦627m	65%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	47,865	6,502	₦741m	₦741m	7%	14.6 yr
30 50m2	19,878	3,340	₦773m	₦773m	13%	8.1 yr
50 100m2	14,838	2,767	₦2.06bn	₦2.05bn	27%	3.9 yr
100 250m2	6,684	1,547	₦6.12bn	₦5.62bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	2,230	640	₦8.4bn	₦8.18bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	225	94	₦7.26bn	₦5.42bn	33%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	52,321	11,079	₦15bn	₦13.8bn	13%	7.4 yr
Unclassified	15,972	257	₦2.16bn	₦1.99bn	7%	15.6 yr
Rural	13,517	375	₦3.51bn	₦2.49bn	13%	7.9 yr
Dense Urban	9,910	3,179	₦4.67bn	₦4.53bn	27%	4.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	60,229	8,518	₦1.01bn	₦1.01bn	9%	13.6 yr
Residential Small	14,869	2,514	₦2.31bn	₦2.3bn	25%	4.1 yr
Residential Informal	10,039	2,110	₦2.57bn	₦2.57bn	27%	3.9 yr
Residential	5,911	1,194	₦12.5bn	₦11.8bn	31%	3.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	253	225	₦63.5m	₦63.5m	73%	1.4 yr
Institutional	131	93	₦5.64bn	₦3.8bn	61%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	81	68	₦178m	₦178m	95%	1.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	80	65	₦366m	₦360m	77%	1.4 yr
School	50	39	₦82m	₦82m	89%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	46	38	₦257m	₦255m	61%	1.6 yr
Clinic	31	26	₦338m	₦338m	59%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	91,720	14,890	₦25.4bn	₦22.8bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	91,376	14,620	₦18.8bn	₦18bn	13%	8.1 yr
Enterprise	264	205	₦6.23bn	₦4.38bn	65%	1.6 yr
SME High	80	65	₦366m	₦360m	77%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	56,670	8,022	₦949m	₦949m
3.0	11,924	2,638	₦16bn	₦14bn
2.0	11,718	2,201	₦2.47bn	₦2.38bn
1.0	8,510	1,300	₦704m	₦704m
4.0	2,894	726	₦5.15bn	₦4.67bn
5.0	4	3	₦92.4m	₦85.8m