Katsina State

Rooftop solar in Sandamu, Katsina: what the roofs are worth

Sandamu has 62,204 buildings with a viable rooftop and 426 MWp of roof capacity. 8% run a generator, and together they spend ₦14.5bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

62,204

Usable roof area

1.92 km²

426 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦14.5bn/yr

11.5 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

9.1 yr

Median IRR 11% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Sandamu

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦14.5bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦12.9bn

Lifetime cash saved₦682bn

NPV₦105bn

Median IRR11%

Median payback9.1 yr

Unlocked energy11.1 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity67.3 MWp

Capex₦72.4bn

Year-one energy value₦82.1bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.86tn

NPV₦673bn

Median IRR105%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Sandamu's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 67.3 MWp
Capital cost: ₦72.4bn
Year 1 savings: ₦82.1bn/yr
NPV: ₦673bn
Median IRR: 105%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Sandamu pays back quickly

Of the 61,729 buildings in Sandamu with a modelled payback, 32.7% pay back inside five years and 7.7% inside three.

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How much of Sandamu's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Sandamu consume 25.7 GWh/yr but want 36.7 GWh/yr. The 30% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Sandamu

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Sandamu actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 61,729 buildings with a modelled result out of 62,204 in Sandamu. 28,401 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years4,726 (8%)

Under 5 years20,194 (33%)

Under 7 years28,446 (46%)

Under 10 years33,897 (55%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%31,614 (51%)

Above 15%28,401 (46%)

Above 20%22,929 (37%)

Above 25%15,867 (26%)

CO₂ avoided

24.9 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

6.14 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

11.1 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

285k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Sandamu.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Sandamu

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	19,076	1,390	₦2.59bn	₦2.08bn	9%	13.4 yr
E	18,532	1,178	₦2.21bn	₦2.16bn	9%	9.9 yr
C	15,863	1,008	₦6.03bn	₦5.02bn	9%	13.6 yr
B	8,733	1,135	₦3.69bn	₦3.67bn	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	61,759	4,363	₦12bn	₦10.6bn	11%	9.1 yr
Anchor	201	145	₦1.1bn	₦1.08bn	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	123	100	₦1.37bn	₦1.13bn	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	84	77	₦66.6m	₦66.6m	59%	1.9 yr
Worship	35	26	₦11.2m	₦11.2m	65%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	1	0	₦94.7k	₦94.7k	31%	3.4 yr
Industrial	1	0	₦79.1k	₦79.1k	41%	2.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	36,744	2,118	₦320m	₦320m	7%	15.4 yr
30 50m2	12,089	977	₦336m	₦336m	15%	7.1 yr
50 100m2	7,324	716	₦918m	₦916m	31%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	4,272	607	₦5bn	₦4.16bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	1,654	267	₦5.72bn	₦5.18bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	121	26	₦2.22bn	₦2.02bn	33%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	34,307	2,761	₦5.32bn	₦4.87bn	7%	14.4 yr
Dense Urban	25,394	1,887	₦7.93bn	₦7.28bn	21%	5.1 yr
Unclassified	2,503	63	₦1.27bn	₦785m	5%	16.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	43,199	2,618	₦331m	₦331m	7%	14.4 yr
Residential Informal	7,467	490	₦1.46bn	₦1.46bn	29%	3.9 yr
Residential Small	6,448	726	₦996m	₦994m	31%	3.6 yr
Residential	4,645	529	₦9.19bn	₦7.85bn	33%	3.4 yr
Institutional	85	58	₦627m	₦617m	59%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	84	77	₦66.6m	₦66.6m	59%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	71	57	₦115m	₦115m	89%	1.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	52	51	₦1.24bn	₦1.01bn	61%	1.6 yr
School	43	36	₦72.5m	₦72.5m	87%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	42	27	₦374m	₦368m	57%	1.9 yr
Clinic	31	21	₦37.4m	₦37.4m	57%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	14	10	₦3.43m	₦3.43m	67%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	62,204	4,711	₦14.5bn	₦12.9bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	61,947	4,515	₦12.2bn	₦10.8bn	11%	9.1 yr
Enterprise	202	145	₦1.1bn	₦1.08bn	61%	1.6 yr
SME High	55	51	₦1.24bn	₦1.01bn	61%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	41,727	2,432	₦307m	₦307m
2.0	7,763	720	₦1.35bn	₦1.3bn
3.0	6,676	884	₦9.95bn	₦8.65bn
1.0	4,596	496	₦266m	₦266m
4.0	1,437	175	₦1.95bn	₦1.93bn
5.0	4	3	₦379m	₦172m
6.0	1	1	₦324m	₦302m