Nigeria rooftop solar data

Rooftop solar in Borno State: buildings, spend and payback

2,151,301 buildings in Borno State carry a viable rooftop. Together they spend ₦514bn a year on grid power and generator fuel, and 8% of them run a generator.

Viable buildings

2,151,301

Usable roof area

64.6 km²

14.3 GWp of roof capacity

Current energy spend

₦514bn/yr

427 GWh/yr from generators

Median payback

6.9 yr

Median IRR 15% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Borno

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦514bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦440bn

Lifetime cash saved₦23tn

NPV₦3.54tn

Median IRR15%

Median payback6.9 yr

Unlocked energy336 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity1.6 GWp

Capex₦1.7tn

Year-one energy value₦1.64tn

Lifetime energy value₦76.5tn

NPV₦13.1tn

Median IRR93%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Borno State's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 1.6 GWp
Capital cost: ₦1.7tn
Year 1 savings: ₦1.64tn/yr
NPV: ₦13.1tn
Median IRR: 93%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Borno State pays back quickly

Of the 2,129,240 buildings in Borno State with a modelled payback, 33.8% pay back inside five years and 8.5% inside three.

Payback under 5 years

33.8%

Payback under 3 years

8.5%

IRR above 20%

37.5%

Under 3 years · 8%3 – 5 years · 25%5 – 7 years · 16%7 – 10 years · 12%Over 10 years · 38%

Coverage: 99% of buildings in Borno State produced a payback figure. Buildings with no viable scenario are excluded rather than counted as zero.

How much of Borno State's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Borno State consume 884 GWh/yr but want 1.22 TWh/yr. The 28% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Met today · 72%Suppressed · 28%

Energy wanted

1.22 TWh/yr

Energy consumed

884 GWh/yr

Unmet demand

336 GWh/yr

Modelled latent demand, not metered consumption. It is the load buildings would run given affordable, available supply.

How many rooftops in Borno State actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 2,129,240 buildings with a modelled result out of 2,151,301 in Borno State. 1,064,455 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years180,100 (8%)

Under 5 years720,705 (34%)

Under 7 years1,068,211 (50%)

Under 10 years1,316,428 (62%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%1,261,440 (59%)

Above 15%1,064,455 (49%)

Above 20%805,980 (37%)

Above 25%592,506 (28%)

Electricity billing bands in Borno State

Loading band economics…

What a delivered unit costs, by DisCo

Grid tariff plus the generator running that fills the gap, blended across every building the DisCo serves. Ranked most expensive first — the higher the all-in rate, the stronger the case for solar.

Loading the league table…

Ikeja and Eko are reported together as Lagos. Rates are modelled blends of billed grid energy and generator running, not published tariffs.

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Borno State.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Where the opportunity sits

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	488,399	33,967	₦71.3bn	₦69.3bn	21%	5.4 yr
C	449,862	43,431	₦145bn	₦128bn	17%	6.4 yr
D	439,294	21,739	₦107bn	₦76.7bn	5%	15.9 yr
A	400,287	52,683	₦96.4bn	₦94.5bn	23%	4.6 yr
E	373,459	18,001	₦94.9bn	₦71.3bn	5%	16.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	2,085,058	138,879	₦397bn	₦327bn	13%	7.4 yr
Commercial Retail	35,886	14,807	₦3.78bn	₦3.78bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial General	16,177	6,999	₦49.3bn	₦48.6bn	39%	2.9 yr
Worship	8,975	5,755	₦2.32bn	₦2.07bn	53%	2.1 yr
Anchor	4,489	3,019	₦57.1bn	₦54.6bn	57%	1.9 yr
Industrial	460	228	₦1.39bn	₦1.06bn	41%	2.6 yr
Hospitality	151	89	₦2.74bn	₦2.46bn	39%	2.6 yr
Filling Station	64	29	₦93m	₦92.9m	39%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	32	11	₦222m	₦222m	37%	2.9 yr
Productive Use	9	5	₦55m	₦55m	41%	2.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	1,276,977	71,148	₦13.2bn	₦12.9bn	7%	14.9 yr
30 50m2	389,032	31,450	₦19.9bn	₦18bn	21%	5.4 yr
50 100m2	330,813	31,839	₦69.1bn	₦60.4bn	29%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	129,827	24,780	₦162bn	₦130bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	23,630	9,967	₦179bn	₦152bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	1,022	637	₦71.3bn	₦66.7bn	49%	2.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	841,006	85,568	₦190bn	₦181bn	21%	5.1 yr
Unclassified	620,850	19,629	₦149bn	₦103bn	5%	16.6 yr
Dense Urban	251,673	26,164	₦58.2bn	₦53.9bn	19%	5.6 yr
Rural	242,701	13,822	₦37.5bn	₦29.6bn	7%	13.9 yr
Urban	195,071	24,638	₦80bn	₦72.4bn	15%	6.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	1,233,224	52,084	₦7.99bn	₦7.99bn	7%	14.6 yr
Residential Informal	333,190	34,071	₦45.4bn	₦45.2bn	25%	4.1 yr
Residential Small	248,127	28,871	₦76.8bn	₦65bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential Formal	163,070	1,381	₦2.83bn	₦2.78bn	19%	5.4 yr
Residential	107,223	22,465	₦264bn	₦206bn	31%	3.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	35,794	14,806	₦3.77bn	₦3.77bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial	7,647	3,138	₦25.6bn	₦25.2bn	39%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	5,711	1,948	₦16.7bn	₦16.6bn	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	5,064	3,390	₦37.5bn	₦35.7bn	55%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	3,178	1,998	₦403m	₦403m	51%	2.1 yr
Place Of Worship	2,842	1,847	₦257m	₦257m	51%	2.1 yr
Educational Facility	1,284	927	₦1.92bn	₦1.92bn	81%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	2,138,502	168,334	₦502bn	₦431bn
Farmland	9,173	316	₦2.94bn	₦1.88bn
Retail	2,016	459	₦2.71bn	₦2.67bn
Industrial	1,161	496	₦4.66bn	₦2.95bn
Commercial	303	206	₦1.55bn	₦1.55bn
Farmyard	141	9	₦118m	₦118m
Orchard	5	1	₦1.57m	₦1.57m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	2,133,038	161,517	₦411bn	₦340bn	15%	7.1 yr
SME High	13,622	5,185	₦44.8bn	₦44.1bn	39%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	4,641	3,119	₦58.2bn	₦55.4bn	57%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	1,182,998	53,066	₦7.62bn	₦7.62bn
2.0	308,288	39,411	₦83.8bn	₦68.2bn
3.0	263,116	38,408	₦304bn	₦251bn
4.0	204,255	11,970	₦62.7bn	₦62.1bn
1.0	186,054	24,799	₦23.3bn	₦18.7bn
5.0	5,777	1,733	₦15.3bn	₦15.1bn
6.0	813	434	₦17.3bn	₦16.9bn