Borno State

Rooftop solar in Bayo, Borno: what the roofs are worth

Bayo has 73,959 buildings with a viable rooftop and 306 MWp of roof capacity. 4% run a generator, and together they spend ₦4.7bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

73,959

Usable roof area

1.41 km²

306 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦4.7bn/yr

4.03 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

14.6 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Bayo

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦4.7bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦4.35bn

Lifetime cash saved₦238bn

NPV₦33bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback14.6 yr

Unlocked energy5.43 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity38.6 MWp

Capex₦42.5bn

Year-one energy value₦46bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.15tn

NPV₦373bn

Median IRR101%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Bayo's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 38.6 MWp
Capital cost: ₦42.5bn
Year 1 savings: ₦46bn/yr
NPV: ₦373bn
Median IRR: 101%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Bayo pays back quickly

Of the 73,613 buildings in Bayo with a modelled payback, 18.8% pay back inside five years and 3.8% inside three.

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How much of Bayo's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Bayo consume 10.5 GWh/yr but want 15.9 GWh/yr. The 34% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Bayo

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Bayo actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 73,613 buildings with a modelled result out of 73,959 in Bayo. 21,361 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years2,793 (4%)

Under 5 years13,810 (19%)

Under 7 years21,420 (29%)

Under 10 years28,301 (38%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%25,940 (35%)

Above 15%21,361 (29%)

Above 20%15,710 (21%)

Above 25%11,663 (16%)

CO₂ avoided

9.01 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

1.67 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

5.43 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

186k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Bayo.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Bayo

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	24,437	1,090	₦1.3bn	₦1.28bn	7%	15.9 yr
D	24,306	1,011	₦1.12bn	₦1.12bn	5%	15.9 yr
C	16,751	681	₦2.17bn	₦1.85bn	13%	7.6 yr
B	8,465	4	₦111m	₦111m	17%	5.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	73,045	2,006	₦2.74bn	₦2.69bn	7%	14.9 yr
Worship	462	395	₦47.9m	₦47.9m	57%	1.9 yr
Anchor	179	145	₦1.79bn	₦1.48bn	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	157	148	₦8.62m	₦8.62m	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	101	82	₦119m	₦119m	57%	1.9 yr
Industrial	15	10	₦4.58m	₦4.58m	63%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	52,165	1,639	₦301m	₦301m	5%	16.4 yr
30 50m2	13,651	565	₦443m	₦443m	13%	7.9 yr
50 100m2	6,954	367	₦826m	₦826m	31%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	1,025	153	₦665m	₦642m	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	149	50	₦1.23bn	₦1.13bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	15	12	₦1.24bn	₦1.01bn	67%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	40,810	1,594	₦1.79bn	₦1.77bn	5%	16.6 yr
Rural	18,011	202	₦354m	₦354m	9%	9.9 yr
Urban	8,872	989	₦2.48bn	₦2.15bn	19%	5.6 yr
Dense Urban	6,266	1	₦84.1m	₦84.1m	17%	6.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	54,529	930	₦183m	₦183m	5%	16.1 yr
Residential Small	10,030	517	₦1.1bn	₦1.1bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential	4,533	559	₦1.43bn	₦1.39bn	23%	4.9 yr
Residential Formal	3,953	0	₦18.8m	₦18.8m	13%	7.9 yr
Institutional	244	205	₦611m	₦611m	57%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	157	148	₦8.62m	₦8.62m	57%	1.9 yr
Place Of Worship	155	135	₦9.01m	₦9.01m	59%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	152	128	₦10.6m	₦10.6m	59%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	51	46	₦58.9m	₦58.9m	85%	1.1 yr
School	41	37	₦22.7m	₦22.7m	83%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	31	22	₦47.3m	₦47.3m	53%	1.9 yr
Clinic	26	18	₦49.7m	₦49.7m	51%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	73,763	2,786	₦4.7bn	₦4.35bn
Retail	196	0	₦3.34m	₦3.34m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	73,761	2,626	₦2.91bn	₦2.86bn	7%	14.6 yr
Enterprise	182	147	₦1.79bn	₦1.48bn	59%	1.9 yr
SME High	16	13	₦8.93m	₦8.93m	49%	2.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	54,671	1,047	₦188m	₦188m
2.0	8,325	738	₦913m	₦913m
1.0	4,891	687	₦432m	₦432m
3.0	3,054	313	₦3.15bn	₦2.8bn
4.0	3,018	1	₦20.4m	₦20.4m