Borno State

Rooftop solar in Jere, Borno: what the roofs are worth

Jere has 270,959 buildings with a viable rooftop and 2.22 GWp of roof capacity. 8% run a generator, and together they spend ₦65bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

270,959

Usable roof area

9.98 km²

2.22 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦65bn/yr

54.8 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

5.4 yr

Median IRR 19% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Jere

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦65bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦61.2bn

Lifetime cash saved₦3.25tn

NPV₦490bn

Median IRR19%

Median payback5.4 yr

Unlocked energy48.2 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity203 MWp

Capex₦213bn

Year-one energy value₦170bn

Lifetime energy value₦7.99tn

NPV₦1.33tn

Median IRR79%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Jere's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 203 MWp
Capital cost: ₦213bn
Year 1 savings: ₦170bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.33tn
Median IRR: 79%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Jere pays back quickly

Of the 265,615 buildings in Jere with a modelled payback, 43.4% pay back inside five years and 9.0% inside three.

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How much of Jere's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Jere consume 128 GWh/yr but want 176 GWh/yr. The 27% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Jere

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Jere actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 265,615 buildings with a modelled result out of 270,959 in Jere. 176,158 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years23,916 (9%)

Under 5 years115,384 (43%)

Under 7 years176,878 (67%)

Under 10 years220,077 (83%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%213,400 (79%)

Above 15%176,158 (65%)

Above 20%130,050 (48%)

Above 25%93,209 (34%)

CO₂ avoided

114 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

26.5 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

48.2 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

541k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Jere.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Jere

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	116,792	5,776	₦17.4bn	₦17.4bn	19%	5.6 yr
A	101,795	11,292	₦30.3bn	₦29bn	25%	4.4 yr
C	32,502	2,961	₦7.95bn	₦7.81bn	15%	7.1 yr
D	12,005	496	₦2.5bn	₦1.89bn	7%	15.6 yr
E	7,865	1,364	₦6.83bn	₦5.1bn	7%	14.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	263,323	20,077	₦41.8bn	₦39.5bn	19%	5.6 yr
Commercial Retail	4,703	828	₦366m	₦366m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial General	2,274	684	₦9.12bn	₦8.97bn	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	392	174	₦11.2bn	₦10.5bn	47%	2.4 yr
Worship	163	76	₦482m	₦234m	37%	2.9 yr
Industrial	59	24	₦66m	₦66m	41%	2.6 yr
Hospitality	22	17	₦1.88bn	₦1.61bn	43%	2.4 yr
Filling Station	15	6	₦7.6m	₦7.6m	37%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	6	2	₦1.64m	₦1.64m	37%	2.9 yr
Productive Use	2	1	₦103k	₦103k	37%	2.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	144,075	9,754	₦1.58bn	₦1.57bn	13%	7.4 yr
50 100m2	49,502	3,476	₦4.95bn	₦4.53bn	29%	3.6 yr
30 50m2	47,407	3,342	₦1.47bn	₦1.46bn	21%	5.1 yr
100 250m2	25,245	3,507	₦12.1bn	₦11.5bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	4,506	1,670	₦26.5bn	₦25.1bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	224	140	₦18.4bn	₦17.1bn	49%	2.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	224,205	16,167	₦44.7bn	₦43.8bn	21%	5.1 yr
Urban	20,932	3,996	₦10.7bn	₦9.53bn	13%	7.9 yr
Dense Urban	15,783	781	₦1.18bn	₦1.18bn	15%	6.9 yr
Unclassified	5,079	777	₦7.97bn	₦6.38bn	19%	5.9 yr
Rural	4,960	168	₦443m	₦385m	7%	14.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	131,804	8,624	₦1.16bn	₦1.16bn	15%	7.1 yr
Residential Informal	81,035	4,155	₦8.76bn	₦8.66bn	27%	3.9 yr
Residential Formal	21,562	2	₦293m	₦293m	19%	5.4 yr
Residential Small	18,465	3,475	₦4.62bn	₦4.16bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential	10,403	3,821	₦27bn	₦25.2bn	31%	3.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	4,702	827	₦365m	₦365m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial	1,541	430	₦6.25bn	₦6.13bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	570	183	₦1.23bn	₦1.23bn	39%	2.9 yr
Institutional	189	91	₦5.54bn	₦4.67bn	35%	3.1 yr
Hospital	90	41	₦1.58bn	₦1.52bn	33%	3.4 yr
Educational Facility	71	26	₦61.1m	₦61.1m	49%	2.1 yr
School	63	22	₦116m	₦116m	49%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	270,674	21,719	₦63bn	₦60.1bn
Industrial	177	165	₦2.02bn	₦1.13bn
Farmyard	91	0	₦3.07m	₦3.07m
Farmland	14	5	₦2.33m	₦2.33m
Orchard	3	0	₦4.28k	₦4.28k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	268,425	21,081	₦45bn	₦42.2bn	19%	5.6 yr
SME High	2,137	634	₦8.76bn	₦8.48bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	397	174	₦11.2bn	₦10.5bn	47%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	119,733	8,628	₦1.08bn	₦1.08bn
3.0	46,310	4,845	₦37.9bn	₦35.2bn
2.0	45,584	4,648	₦5.55bn	₦4.96bn
4.0	33,127	1,478	₦11.8bn	₦11.7bn
1.0	24,767	1,901	₦1.06bn	₦1.04bn
5.0	1,232	262	₦2.08bn	₦2bn
6.0	206	127	₦5.53bn	₦5.32bn