Borno State

Rooftop solar in Askira Uba, Borno: what the roofs are worth

Askira Uba has 106,024 buildings with a viable rooftop and 775 MWp of roof capacity. 5% run a generator, and together they spend ₦10bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

106,024

Usable roof area

3.51 km²

775 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦10bn/yr

8.66 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

7.9 yr

Median IRR 13% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Askira Uba

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦10bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦9.66bn

Lifetime cash saved₦521bn

NPV₦78bn

Median IRR13%

Median payback7.9 yr

Unlocked energy10 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity57.2 MWp

Capex₦62.4bn

Year-one energy value₦65bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.09tn

NPV₦532bn

Median IRR103%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Askira Uba's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 57.2 MWp
Capital cost: ₦62.4bn
Year 1 savings: ₦65bn/yr
NPV: ₦532bn
Median IRR: 103%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Askira Uba pays back quickly

Of the 104,678 buildings in Askira Uba with a modelled payback, 28.5% pay back inside five years and 5.1% inside three.

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How much of Askira Uba's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Askira Uba consume 17.7 GWh/yr but want 27.7 GWh/yr. The 36% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Askira Uba

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Askira Uba actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 104,678 buildings with a modelled result out of 106,024 in Askira Uba. 47,107 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years5,326 (5%)

Under 5 years29,798 (28%)

Under 7 years47,315 (45%)

Under 10 years64,806 (62%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%60,102 (57%)

Above 15%47,107 (44%)

Above 20%33,672 (32%)

Above 25%23,787 (22%)

CO₂ avoided

18.9 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

4.51 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

10 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

201k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Askira Uba.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Askira Uba

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	34,814	2,376	₦4.15bn	₦4.12bn	19%	5.9 yr
D	30,017	1,567	₦2.63bn	₦2.63bn	9%	13.6 yr
E	26,563	1,180	₦2.85bn	₦2.52bn	9%	13.1 yr
B	14,630	135	₦389m	₦388m	15%	6.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	104,721	4,201	₦7.32bn	₦6.98bn	13%	8.1 yr
Anchor	358	278	₦2.02bn	₦1.99bn	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	318	292	₦23.8m	₦23.8m	61%	1.6 yr
Worship	316	245	₦83.8m	₦83.8m	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	289	226	₦562m	₦562m	57%	1.9 yr
Industrial	22	16	₦20.3m	₦19.8m	67%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	51,338	1,854	₦368m	₦308m	7%	15.1 yr
30 50m2	24,830	1,000	₦380m	₦380m	13%	7.9 yr
50 100m2	22,188	1,122	₦1.05bn	₦1.04bn	25%	4.1 yr
100 250m2	6,631	911	₦2.86bn	₦2.71bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	1,000	346	₦3.87bn	₦3.73bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	37	25	₦1.51bn	₦1.5bn	67%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	31,225	921	₦3.18bn	₦2.84bn	7%	14.4 yr
Rural	30,389	919	₦716m	₦716m	11%	9.1 yr
Dense Urban	26,230	1,489	₦1.92bn	₦1.9bn	19%	5.9 yr
Urban	18,180	1,929	₦4.21bn	₦4.19bn	17%	6.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	58,291	1,515	₦289m	₦289m	7%	14.1 yr
Residential Small	24,305	1,354	₦1.18bn	₦1.17bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential	12,410	1,267	₦5.74bn	₦5.41bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Informal	7,467	65	₦102m	₦102m	17%	6.1 yr
Residential Formal	2,242	0	₦10.3m	₦10.3m	9%	8.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	318	292	₦23.8m	₦23.8m	61%	1.6 yr
Institutional	295	229	₦1.32bn	₦1.31bn	59%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	112	85	₦136m	₦136m	85%	1.1 yr
Worship Center	110	87	₦24.4m	₦24.4m	65%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	101	78	₦13.1m	₦13.1m	65%	1.6 yr
School	96	71	₦46.5m	₦46.5m	81%	1.4 yr
Commercial	70	65	₦244m	₦244m	45%	2.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	105,718	5,196	₦9.57bn	₦9.2bn
Retail	225	0	₦1.69m	₦1.69m
Industrial	74	56	₦441m	₦441m
Farmland	6	6	₦15.3m	₦15.3m
Farmyard	1	0	₦61.9k	₦61.9k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	105,562	4,890	₦7.72bn	₦7.38bn	13%	7.9 yr
Enterprise	377	293	₦2.04bn	₦2.01bn	61%	1.6 yr
SME High	85	75	₦271m	₦271m	55%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	58,033	1,547	₦290m	₦290m
2.0	21,634	1,290	₦1.48bn	₦1.41bn
3.0	12,721	1,475	₦7.49bn	₦7.19bn
1.0	10,923	913	₦347m	₦347m
4.0	2,709	29	₦278m	₦278m
5.0	4	4	₦141m	₦141m