Borno State

Rooftop solar in Magumeri, Borno: what the roofs are worth

Magumeri has 83,627 buildings with a viable rooftop and 275 MWp of roof capacity. 1% run a generator, and together they spend ₦2.59bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

83,627

Usable roof area

1.27 km²

275 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦2.59bn/yr

1.92 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

16.9 yr

Median IRR 5% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Magumeri

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦2.59bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦2.5bn

Lifetime cash saved₦149bn

NPV₦18.3bn

Median IRR5%

Median payback16.9 yr

Unlocked energy4.57 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity35.5 MWp

Capex₦39.7bn

Year-one energy value₦45.7bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.13tn

NPV₦374bn

Median IRR101%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Magumeri's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 35.5 MWp
Capital cost: ₦39.7bn
Year 1 savings: ₦45.7bn/yr
NPV: ₦374bn
Median IRR: 101%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Magumeri pays back quickly

Of the 83,349 buildings in Magumeri with a modelled payback, 8.3% pay back inside five years and 0.7% inside three.

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How much of Magumeri's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Magumeri consume 6.67 GWh/yr but want 11.2 GWh/yr. The 41% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Magumeri

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Magumeri actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 83,349 buildings with a modelled result out of 83,627 in Magumeri. 9,066 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years615 (1%)

Under 5 years6,957 (8%)

Under 7 years9,118 (11%)

Under 10 years13,349 (16%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%11,945 (14%)

Above 15%9,066 (11%)

Above 20%7,339 (9%)

Above 25%6,295 (8%)

CO₂ avoided

5.98 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

797622 litres/yr

Energy unlocked

4.57 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

215k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Magumeri.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Magumeri

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	39,474	130	₦1.02bn	₦1.02bn	5%	17.1 yr
E	29,751	77	₦579m	₦491m	5%	17.1 yr
C	9,304	138	₦582m	₦582m	5%	16.6 yr
B	5,098	244	₦406m	₦406m	15%	7.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	83,265	407	₦1.69bn	₦1.6bn	5%	16.9 yr
Worship	145	83	₦12.4m	₦12.4m	51%	2.1 yr
Anchor	97	52	₦843m	₦843m	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	68	38	₦38.9m	₦38.9m	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	40	0	₦307k	₦307k	23%	4.9 yr
Industrial	12	9	₦6.25m	₦6.25m	73%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	70,064	283	₦197m	₦164m	5%	17.4 yr
30 50m2	8,332	70	₦189m	₦177m	9%	13.4 yr
50 100m2	4,197	99	₦530m	₦530m	31%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	895	96	₦492m	₦449m	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	130	33	₦414m	₦414m	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	9	8	₦769m	₦769m	71%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	50,984	95	₦1.22bn	₦1.22bn	5%	17.4 yr
Dense Urban	13,518	348	₦531m	₦531m	7%	13.9 yr
Urban	9,983	67	₦397m	₦397m	5%	16.6 yr
Rural	9,142	79	₦440m	₦352m	5%	17.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	72,393	224	₦144m	₦144m	5%	17.4 yr
Residential Small	5,894	79	₦636m	₦636m	31%	3.4 yr
Residential	2,646	102	₦885m	₦797m	19%	5.6 yr
Residential Informal	2,332	2	₦25.3m	₦25.3m	19%	5.6 yr
Institutional	109	66	₦718m	₦718m	55%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	52	28	₦3.69m	₦3.69m	47%	2.1 yr
Place Of Worship	45	25	₦2.02m	₦2.02m	51%	2.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	40	0	₦307k	₦307k	23%	4.9 yr
Educational Facility	33	19	₦31.1m	₦31.1m	85%	1.1 yr
School	23	10	₦7.9m	₦7.9m	49%	2.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	15	8	₦36.2m	₦36.2m	55%	1.9 yr
Clinic	12	5	₦41.9m	₦41.9m	31%	3.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	83,625	589	₦2.59bn	₦2.5bn
Farmland	2	0	₦2.46k	₦2.46k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	83,519	529	₦1.74bn	₦1.65bn	5%	16.9 yr
Enterprise	107	59	₦848m	₦848m	59%	1.9 yr
SME High	1	1	₦356k	₦356k	59%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	72,443	247	₦145m	₦145m
2.0	5,288	135	₦643m	₦588m
1.0	3,886	93	₦305m	₦272m
3.0	1,820	112	₦1.48bn	₦1.48bn
4.0	190	2	₦15.7m	₦15.7m