Borno State

Rooftop solar in Gubio, Borno: what the roofs are worth

Gubio has 82,437 buildings with a viable rooftop and 224 MWp of roof capacity. 2% run a generator, and together they spend ₦5.19bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

82,437

Usable roof area

1.03 km²

224 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦5.19bn/yr

3.83 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

17.4 yr

Median IRR 5% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Gubio

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦5.19bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦4.16bn

Lifetime cash saved₦227bn

NPV₦31.7bn

Median IRR5%

Median payback17.4 yr

Unlocked energy4.42 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity25 MWp

Capex₦28.4bn

Year-one energy value₦31.7bn

Lifetime energy value₦1.46tn

NPV₦256bn

Median IRR101%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Gubio's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 25 MWp
Capital cost: ₦28.4bn
Year 1 savings: ₦31.7bn/yr
NPV: ₦256bn
Median IRR: 101%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Gubio pays back quickly

Of the 82,383 buildings in Gubio with a modelled payback, 10.2% pay back inside five years and 2.0% inside three.

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How much of Gubio's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Gubio consume 9.17 GWh/yr but want 13.6 GWh/yr. The 33% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Gubio

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Gubio actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 82,383 buildings with a modelled result out of 82,437 in Gubio. 11,011 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years1,633 (2%)

Under 5 years8,366 (10%)

Under 7 years11,027 (13%)

Under 10 years12,328 (15%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%11,981 (15%)

Above 15%11,011 (13%)

Above 20%9,058 (11%)

Above 25%7,340 (9%)

CO₂ avoided

8.6 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

1.91 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

4.42 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

171k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Gubio.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Gubio

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	31,865	122	₦899m	₦704m	5%	17.9 yr
D	30,907	89	₦2bn	₦1.16bn	5%	17.9 yr
C	13,506	1,186	₦1.92bn	₦1.92bn	5%	16.6 yr
B	6,159	612	₦372m	₦372m	23%	4.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	82,015	1,660	₦4.81bn	₦3.78bn	5%	17.6 yr
Worship	158	111	₦9.01m	₦9.01m	49%	2.1 yr
Commercial Retail	134	133	₦22.6m	₦22.6m	55%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	70	61	₦146m	₦146m	57%	1.9 yr
Anchor	55	40	₦191m	₦191m	55%	1.9 yr
Industrial	5	4	₦14.7m	₦14.7m	53%	1.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	73,983	944	₦218m	₦218m	5%	17.9 yr
30 50m2	4,812	411	₦309m	₦229m	17%	6.1 yr
50 100m2	2,877	416	₦761m	₦641m	31%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	647	192	₦2.61bn	₦1.89bn	33%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	111	43	₦1.14bn	₦1.03bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	7	3	₦151m	₦151m	33%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	56,888	182	₦2.1bn	₦1.54bn	5%	17.9 yr
Rural	14,860	50	₦256m	₦176m	5%	17.6 yr
Dense Urban	9,808	1,356	₦1.82bn	₦1.82bn	27%	4.1 yr
Urban	881	421	₦1.01bn	₦625m	31%	3.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	74,161	334	₦153m	₦153m	5%	17.9 yr
Residential Formal	2,529	965	₦185m	₦185m	31%	3.4 yr
Residential Small	2,415	181	₦780m	₦660m	31%	3.4 yr
Residential Informal	1,888	0	₦70.6m	₦70.6m	31%	3.6 yr
Residential	1,022	180	₦3.62bn	₦2.71bn	29%	3.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	134	133	₦22.6m	₦22.6m	55%	1.9 yr
Institutional	81	58	₦63.4m	₦63.4m	53%	2.1 yr
Worship Center	52	36	₦2.47m	₦2.47m	47%	2.1 yr
Place Of Worship	52	37	₦1.5m	₦1.5m	43%	2.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	34	33	₦62.6m	₦62.6m	57%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	22	16	₦50.6m	₦50.6m	87%	1.1 yr
School	13	8	₦4.86m	₦4.86m	79%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	82,263	1,984	₦5.17bn	₦4.15bn
Retail	102	25	₦14.4m	₦14.4m
Farmland	72	0	₦119k	₦119k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	82,341	1,929	₦4.9bn	₦3.87bn	5%	17.4 yr
Enterprise	58	44	₦206m	₦206m	55%	1.9 yr
SME High	38	36	₦87.2m	₦87.2m	57%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	74,209	376	₦154m	₦154m
2.0	2,802	262	₦2.17bn	₦1.42bn
3.0	2,202	502	₦2.25bn	₦2.05bn
4.0	1,703	623	₦248m	₦248m
1.0	1,519	244	₦336m	₦256m
5.0	2	2	₦36.9m	₦36.9m