Borno State

Rooftop solar in Shani, Borno: what the roofs are worth

Shani has 81,462 buildings with a viable rooftop and 331 MWp of roof capacity. 12% run a generator, and together they spend ₦12.8bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

81,462

Usable roof area

1.52 km²

331 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦12.8bn/yr

10.4 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

13.9 yr

Median IRR 9% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Shani

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦12.8bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦12.3bn

Lifetime cash saved₦655bn

NPV₦100bn

Median IRR9%

Median payback13.9 yr

Unlocked energy11.7 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity63.4 MWp

Capex₦67.8bn

Year-one energy value₦74.2bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.43tn

NPV₦599bn

Median IRR103%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Shani's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 63.4 MWp
Capital cost: ₦67.8bn
Year 1 savings: ₦74.2bn/yr
NPV: ₦599bn
Median IRR: 103%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Shani pays back quickly

Of the 81,304 buildings in Shani with a modelled payback, 27.1% pay back inside five years and 13.2% inside three.

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How much of Shani's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Shani consume 22 GWh/yr but want 33.7 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Shani

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Shani actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 81,304 buildings with a modelled result out of 81,462 in Shani. 28,458 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years10,706 (13%)

Under 5 years22,045 (27%)

Under 7 years28,498 (35%)

Under 10 years35,789 (44%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%32,942 (40%)

Above 15%28,458 (35%)

Above 20%23,638 (29%)

Above 25%20,219 (25%)

CO₂ avoided

24 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

5.95 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

11.7 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

262k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Shani.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Shani

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	32,803	3,323	₦5.67bn	₦5.3bn	7%	14.9 yr
E	22,557	1,732	₦2.49bn	₦2.48bn	7%	15.1 yr
C	19,983	3,398	₦2.91bn	₦2.89bn	19%	5.9 yr
B	6,119	1,280	₦1.68bn	₦1.61bn	21%	5.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	76,251	6,350	₦10.3bn	₦9.86bn	7%	14.1 yr
Commercial Retail	3,446	2,014	₦398m	₦398m	45%	2.4 yr
Worship	868	809	₦190m	₦190m	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	641	334	₦543m	₦543m	39%	2.9 yr
Anchor	246	217	₦1.28bn	₦1.28bn	63%	1.6 yr
Industrial	10	9	₦7.5m	₦7.5m	73%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	60,307	5,532	₦942m	₦942m	7%	15.1 yr
30 50m2	12,775	2,179	₦1.37bn	₦1.37bn	21%	5.4 yr
50 100m2	6,710	1,415	₦3.58bn	₦3.4bn	31%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	1,449	491	₦3.14bn	₦2.86bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	208	105	₦2.54bn	₦2.54bn	43%	2.4 yr
Over 1000m2	13	11	₦1.17bn	₦1.17bn	67%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	43,099	2,269	₦5.54bn	₦5.39bn	7%	15.9 yr
Rural	16,607	2,021	₦1.78bn	₦1.73bn	9%	9.6 yr
Dense Urban	12,255	3,181	₦2.35bn	₦2.13bn	29%	3.6 yr
Urban	9,501	2,262	₦3.09bn	₦3.04bn	19%	5.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	59,454	3,391	₦414m	₦414m	7%	15.4 yr
Residential Small	11,456	1,846	₦4.35bn	₦4.16bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential	5,341	1,113	₦5.57bn	₦5.29bn	27%	4.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	3,446	2,014	₦398m	₦398m	45%	2.4 yr
Commercial	473	179	₦255m	₦255m	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	408	377	₦1.23bn	₦1.23bn	59%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	293	272	₦47.8m	₦47.8m	67%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	286	267	₦29.1m	₦29.1m	67%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	75	67	₦109m	₦109m	89%	1.1 yr
School	63	55	₦44.4m	₦44.4m	89%	1.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	46	46	₦131m	₦131m	73%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	38	35	₦76.3m	₦76.3m	59%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	81,462	9,733	₦12.8bn	₦12.3bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	80,691	9,286	₦11.1bn	₦10.6bn	7%	13.9 yr
SME High	519	225	₦386m	₦386m	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	252	222	₦1.29bn	₦1.29bn	63%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	59,720	3,631	₦431m	₦431m
2.0	10,100	2,128	₦4.01bn	₦3.67bn
1.0	7,457	2,965	₦1.98bn	₦1.89bn
3.0	3,842	950	₦6.09bn	₦6.06bn
5.0	272	38	₦194m	₦194m
4.0	66	21	₦38.9m	₦38.9m
6.0	5	0	₦12m	₦12m