Borno State

Rooftop solar in Biu, Borno: what the roofs are worth

Biu has 143,905 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.05 GWp of roof capacity. 7% run a generator, and together they spend ₦18.9bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

143,905

Usable roof area

4.74 km²

1.05 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦18.9bn/yr

15.7 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

6.9 yr

Median IRR 15% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Biu

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦18.9bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦18.2bn

Lifetime cash saved₦988bn

NPV₦145bn

Median IRR15%

Median payback6.9 yr

Unlocked energy17.6 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity86.5 MWp

Capex₦93bn

Year-one energy value₦87.2bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.13tn

NPV₦702bn

Median IRR95%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Biu's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 86.5 MWp
Capital cost: ₦93bn
Year 1 savings: ₦87.2bn/yr
NPV: ₦702bn
Median IRR: 95%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Biu pays back quickly

Of the 141,883 buildings in Biu with a modelled payback, 37.1% pay back inside five years and 8.1% inside three.

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How much of Biu's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Biu consume 38.1 GWh/yr but want 55.7 GWh/yr. The 32% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Biu

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Biu actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 141,883 buildings with a modelled result out of 143,905 in Biu. 72,000 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years11,524 (8%)

Under 5 years52,670 (37%)

Under 7 years72,185 (51%)

Under 10 years84,797 (60%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%81,390 (57%)

Above 15%72,000 (50%)

Above 20%57,910 (40%)

Above 25%44,371 (31%)

CO₂ avoided

35.6 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

7.79 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

17.6 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

292k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Biu.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Biu

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	37,117	1,772	₦2.05bn	₦1.95bn	7%	15.6 yr
A	35,767	4,282	₦6.29bn	₦6.13bn	27%	4.1 yr
E	25,613	993	₦1.18bn	₦1.13bn	5%	16.4 yr
C	22,815	1,880	₦4.04bn	₦3.74bn	13%	7.1 yr
B	22,593	1,792	₦5.38bn	₦5.29bn	21%	4.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	139,970	8,574	₦12.6bn	₦12.2bn	13%	7.1 yr
Commercial Retail	2,510	1,435	₦288m	₦288m	49%	2.1 yr
Commercial General	935	382	₦1.96bn	₦1.93bn	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	295	201	₦3.97bn	₦3.76bn	57%	1.9 yr
Worship	147	114	₦39.9m	₦39.9m	61%	1.6 yr
Industrial	38	9	₦34.9m	₦34.9m	41%	2.6 yr
Hospitality	7	2	₦6.64m	₦6.64m	39%	2.9 yr
Filling Station	1	1	₦1.44m	₦1.44m	53%	2.1 yr
Mall Retail	1	1	₦4.26m	₦4.26m	63%	1.6 yr
Productive Use	1	0	₦247k	₦247k	41%	2.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	78,320	4,046	₦575m	₦572m	5%	15.9 yr
50 100m2	27,212	2,155	₦2.12bn	₦2.11bn	29%	3.6 yr
30 50m2	25,796	1,916	₦719m	₦719m	21%	5.4 yr
100 250m2	11,099	1,895	₦5.03bn	₦4.74bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	1,406	664	₦6.93bn	₦6.65bn	33%	3.1 yr
Over 1000m2	72	43	₦3.56bn	₦3.45bn	53%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	57,721	2,210	₦5.14bn	₦4.97bn	5%	16.6 yr
Urban Centre	47,938	5,774	₦9.77bn	₦9.53bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	16,985	837	₦503m	₦503m	9%	13.4 yr
Urban	12,133	1,744	₦2.92bn	₦2.92bn	21%	5.1 yr
Dense Urban	9,128	154	₦611m	₦322m	13%	6.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	75,072	3,069	₦419m	₦419m	7%	15.6 yr
Residential Small	23,492	2,580	₦2.16bn	₦2.15bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential Formal	19,354	156	₦355m	₦355m	19%	5.4 yr
Residential Informal	14,149	1,157	₦1.19bn	₦1.19bn	29%	3.9 yr
Residential	7,838	1,606	₦8.51bn	₦8.06bn	31%	3.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	2,509	1,434	₦288m	₦288m	49%	2.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	582	166	₦1.27bn	₦1.25bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial	220	133	₦467m	₦454m	47%	2.1 yr
Institutional	181	126	₦1.55bn	₦1.55bn	55%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	85	57	₦120m	₦120m	75%	1.4 yr
School	68	48	₦50.3m	₦50.3m	69%	1.4 yr
Worship Center	52	40	₦11.8m	₦11.8m	67%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	143,564	10,670	₦18.9bn	₦18.2bn
Farmland	205	1	₦11m	₦11m
Commercial	119	47	₦61.3m	₦61.3m
Retail	9	0	₦208k	₦208k
Industrial	6	0	₦114k	₦114k
Orchard	2	1	₦1.57m	₦1.57m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	142,786	10,211	₦13.2bn	₦12.7bn	15%	6.9 yr
SME High	807	303	₦1.75bn	₦1.72bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	312	205	₦3.99bn	₦3.77bn	57%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	72,727	3,022	₦391m	₦391m
4.0	22,151	537	₦2.61bn	₦2.58bn
3.0	20,442	3,314	₦12.5bn	₦11.9bn
2.0	17,697	1,865	₦1.81bn	₦1.8bn
1.0	10,826	1,928	₦746m	₦744m
5.0	50	44	₦395m	₦395m
6.0	12	9	₦469m	₦454m