Borno State

Rooftop solar in Maiduguri, Borno: what the roofs are worth

Maiduguri has 329,345 buildings with a viable rooftop and 3.5 GWp of roof capacity. 11% run a generator, and together they spend ₦59.9bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

329,345

Usable roof area

15.7 km²

3.5 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦59.9bn/yr

41.9 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.9 yr

Median IRR 21% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Maiduguri

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦59.9bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦59.3bn

Lifetime cash saved₦3.39tn

NPV₦468bn

Median IRR21%

Median payback4.9 yr

Unlocked energy74.3 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity250 MWp

Capex₦256bn

Year-one energy value₦164bn

Lifetime energy value₦7.7tn

NPV₦1.23tn

Median IRR71%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Maiduguri's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 250 MWp
Capital cost: ₦256bn
Year 1 savings: ₦164bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.23tn
Median IRR: 71%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Maiduguri pays back quickly

Of the 324,777 buildings in Maiduguri with a modelled payback, 50.6% pay back inside five years and 10.9% inside three.

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How much of Maiduguri's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Maiduguri consume 165 GWh/yr but want 239 GWh/yr. The 31% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Maiduguri

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Maiduguri actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 324,777 buildings with a modelled result out of 329,345 in Maiduguri. 253,660 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years35,557 (11%)

Under 5 years164,208 (51%)

Under 7 years254,636 (78%)

Under 10 years300,611 (93%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%295,052 (90%)

Above 15%253,660 (77%)

Above 20%187,723 (57%)

Above 25%122,618 (37%)

CO₂ avoided

128 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

17.8 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

74.3 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

442k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Maiduguri.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Maiduguri

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	242,936	32,568	₦55.4bn	₦54.9bn	23%	4.9 yr
B	81,077	3,755	₦4.12bn	₦4bn	21%	5.1 yr
C	4,426	514	₦329m	₦329m	19%	5.9 yr
E	544	17	₦6.99m	₦6.99m	7%	14.6 yr
D	362	91	₦24.1m	₦24.1m	9%	12.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	319,448	33,953	₦27.7bn	₦27.7bn	21%	5.1 yr
Commercial Retail	4,608	1,165	₦598m	₦598m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial General	4,106	1,367	₦17bn	₦16.9bn	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	644	245	₦13.2bn	₦12.8bn	47%	2.4 yr
Worship	238	85	₦187m	₦187m	37%	2.9 yr
Industrial	131	44	₦222m	₦221m	41%	2.6 yr
Hospitality	108	64	₦794m	₦784m	39%	2.6 yr
Filling Station	33	12	₦62.8m	₦62.8m	39%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	23	6	₦36.6m	₦36.5m	37%	2.9 yr
Productive Use	6	4	₦54.7m	₦54.7m	39%	2.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	131,425	14,113	₦1.9bn	₦1.89bn	17%	6.1 yr
50 100m2	77,670	6,713	₦3.82bn	₦3.82bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	69,467	5,760	₦1.65bn	₦1.65bn	21%	5.1 yr
100 250m2	41,664	6,855	₦12bn	₦11.9bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	8,796	3,321	₦24.9bn	₦24.7bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	323	183	₦15.7bn	₦15.3bn	43%	2.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	324,981	36,173	₦55.9bn	₦55.3bn	21%	4.9 yr
Unclassified	2,615	503	₦3.91bn	₦3.89bn	31%	3.6 yr
Urban	1,749	269	₦67.1m	₦67.1m	17%	6.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	169,826	23,066	₦22.5bn	₦22.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	104,747	7,683	₦1.2bn	₦1.2bn	19%	5.6 yr
Residential Formal	25,591	0	₦268m	₦268m	19%	5.6 yr
Residential Small	14,091	1,799	₦637m	₦635m	23%	4.6 yr
Residential	5,162	1,405	₦3.11bn	₦3.09bn	31%	3.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	4,607	1,167	₦623m	₦623m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	2,250	620	₦9.28bn	₦9.18bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial	1,298	539	₦6.19bn	₦6.17bn	39%	2.9 yr
Institutional	279	109	₦8.87bn	₦8.85bn	33%	3.1 yr
School	169	65	₦296m	₦296m	49%	2.1 yr
Unknown	167	43	₦213m	₦213m	33%	3.4 yr
Educational Facility	128	52	₦282m	₦282m	49%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	328,268	36,498	₦55.9bn	₦55.3bn
Industrial	617	50	₦37.6m	₦37.6m
Retail	247	235	₦2.49bn	₦2.49bn
Commercial	165	159	₦1.49bn	₦1.49bn
Farmland	46	1	₦652k	₦652k
Farmyard	2	2	₦244k	₦244k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	325,005	35,467	₦30.3bn	₦30.2bn	21%	5.1 yr
SME High	3,683	1,228	₦16.3bn	₦16.2bn	39%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	657	250	₦13.3bn	₦12.9bn	47%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	77,881	8,596	₦8.3bn	₦8.19bn
0.0	69,289	7,246	₦886m	₦886m
2.0	68,844	9,953	₦2.73bn	₦2.73bn
4.0	64,231	7,311	₦33.6bn	₦33.2bn
1.0	47,349	3,232	₦634m	₦634m
5.0	1,458	423	₦6.75bn	₦6.75bn
6.0	293	184	₦7.05bn	₦6.92bn