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    Borno State

    Rooftop solar in Konduga, Borno: what the roofs are worth

    Konduga has 99,017 buildings with a viable rooftop and 738 MWp of roof capacity. 13% run a generator, and together they spend ₦25.7bn a year on energy.

    Viable buildings

    99,017

    Usable roof area

    3.32 km²

    738 MWp roof capacity

    Energy spend

    ₦25.7bn/yr

    25 GWh/yr burned on generators

    Median payback

    7.9 yr

    Median IRR 13% (cash saved)

    The savings bracket for Konduga

    Approach B

    Cash saved

    What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

    Current energy spend₦25.7bn/yr
    Year-one cash saved₦25bn
    Lifetime cash saved₦1.31tn
    NPV₦200bn
    Median IRR13%
    Median payback7.9 yr
    Unlocked energy16.6 GWh/yr
    Approach A

    Energy value (upper bracket)

    What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

    Installed capacity73.7 MWp
    Capex₦74.4bn
    Year-one energy value₦62.9bn
    Lifetime energy value₦2.96tn
    NPV₦496bn
    Median IRR95%
    Median payback1.1 yr

    Three ways to size Konduga's rooftops

    Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

    Baseline: mixed
    Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

    Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

    System size
    73.7 MWp
    Capital cost
    ₦74.4bn
    Year 1 savings
    ₦62.9bn/yr
    NPV
    ₦496bn
    Median IRR
    95%
    Median payback
    1.1 yr

    The odds a rooftop in Konduga pays back quickly

    Of the 97,829 buildings in Konduga with a modelled payback, 28.4% pay back inside five years and 14.6% inside three.

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    How much of Konduga's demand actually gets met

    Buildings in Konduga consume 48.3 GWh/yr but want 64.9 GWh/yr. The 26% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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    Electricity billing bands in Konduga

    Loading band economics…

    How many rooftops in Konduga actually pay

    Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 97,829 buildings with a modelled result out of 99,017 in Konduga. 43,921 clear a positive NPV.

    Payback

    Under 3 years14,245 (15%)
    Under 5 years27,764 (28%)
    Under 7 years44,146 (45%)
    Under 10 years56,856 (58%)

    Return (IRR)

    Above 10%54,642 (55%)
    Above 15%43,921 (44%)
    Above 20%31,059 (31%)
    Above 25%23,627 (24%)
    CO₂ avoided

    43.4 kt/yr

    Fuel avoided

    10.7 million litres/yr

    Energy unlocked

    16.6 GWh/yr

    Demand that is suppressed today

    People served

    122k

    What hardware costs right now

    Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Konduga.

    Solar panels

    ₦250

    ₦/W

    Inverters

    ₦127,419

    ₦/kVA

    Batteries

    ₦177,500

    ₦/kWh

    Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

    Building mix in Konduga

    Electricity billing band

    SegmentBuildings With generator Spend ₦/yr Cash saved yr 1 (B) Median IRR Median payback
    B33,1026,972₦13.1bn₦13bn19%5.6 yr
    C29,8022,083₦4.77bn₦4.76bn13%8.1 yr
    D15,5272,157₦1.8bn₦1.41bn5%15.9 yr
    E14,458240₦2.55bn₦2.34bn5%16.6 yr
    A6,1281,144₦3.47bn₦3.47bn25%4.4 yr

    Load profile

    SegmentBuildings With generator Spend ₦/yr Cash saved yr 1 (B) Median IRR Median payback
    Residential91,8979,405₦11.7bn₦11bn11%8.9 yr
    Commercial Retail4,7481,981₦464m₦464m37%2.9 yr
    Commercial General1,629769₦7.43bn₦7.36bn39%2.6 yr
    Worship502264₦52.8m₦52.8m43%2.4 yr
    Anchor216165₦5.85bn₦5.83bn57%1.9 yr
    Industrial138₦15.8m₦15.8m67%1.6 yr
    Hospitality62₦52.6m₦52.6m39%2.6 yr
    Filling Station40₦4.11m₦4.11m39%2.9 yr
    Mall Retail22₦180m₦180m63%1.4 yr

    Roof size band

    SegmentBuildings With generator Spend ₦/yr Cash saved yr 1 (B) Median IRR Median payback
    Under 30m262,4144,840₦710m₦707m7%15.1 yr
    30 50m215,2412,138₦521m₦516m17%6.4 yr
    50 100m212,2432,020₦1.13bn₦1.13bn23%4.6 yr
    100 250m26,4931,893₦4.07bn₦3.82bn31%3.6 yr
    250 1000m22,5551,649₦12.8bn₦12.4bn67%1.6 yr
    Over 1000m27156₦6.49bn₦6.46bn59%1.9 yr

    Settlement type

    SegmentBuildings With generator Spend ₦/yr Cash saved yr 1 (B) Median IRR Median payback
    Urban Centre37,7007,533₦13bn₦12.9bn19%5.6 yr
    Dense Urban21,6472,313₦4.58bn₦4.53bn9%13.4 yr
    Urban18,3991,887₦6.33bn₦5.86bn11%8.6 yr
    Unclassified13,862645₦1.57bn₦1.48bn5%16.6 yr
    Rural7,409218₦196m₦196m7%15.9 yr

    Building type

    SegmentBuildings With generator Spend ₦/yr Cash saved yr 1 (B) Median IRR Median payback
    Shed59,1083,357₦522m₦522m7%15.1 yr
    Residential Small10,2732,092₦863m₦855m25%4.1 yr
    Residential Formal8,8150₦47.6m₦47.6m13%7.6 yr
    Residential7,5562,854₦9.94bn₦9.31bn31%3.6 yr
    Residential Informal6,1291,102₦288m₦288m23%4.9 yr
    Kiosk Shop4,7481,981₦464m₦464m37%2.9 yr
    Commercial1,230505₦4.73bn₦4.66bn39%2.9 yr
    Commercial Corridor290187₦2.36bn₦2.36bn39%2.6 yr
    Institutional252151₦2.69bn₦2.69bn51%2.1 yr
    Worship Center200104₦14.2m₦14.2m43%2.4 yr
    Place Of Worship14177₦13m₦13m43%2.4 yr
    Educational Facility5341₦98.5m₦98.5m81%1.4 yr

    Land use

    SegmentBuildings With generator Spend ₦/yr Cash saved yr 1 (B)
    (Unset)98,86612,540₦25.4bn₦24.6bn
    Farmland730₦322k₦322k
    Industrial4949₦237m₦237m
    Farmyard197₦111m₦111m
    Commercial100₦322k₦322k

    Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

    Lead segment

    SegmentBuildings With generator Spend ₦/yr Cash saved yr 1 (B) Median IRR Median payback
    Standard97,26711,731₦12.6bn₦11.9bn13%8.1 yr
    SME High1,529696₦7.3bn₦7.24bn39%2.9 yr
    Enterprise221169₦5.85bn₦5.84bn57%1.9 yr

    Demand tier

    SegmentBuildings With generator Spend ₦/yr Cash saved yr 1 (B)
    0.058,6923,394₦522m₦522m
    3.012,9553,809₦16bn₦15.4bn
    2.012,9023,402₦1.51bn₦1.42bn
    4.07,346529₦2.05bn₦2.05bn
    1.06,2211,094₦345m₦337m
    5.0741317₦2.01bn₦2.01bn
    6.016051₦3.3bn₦3.24bn

    Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

    Nearby LGAs in Borno

    Maiduguri329,345 buildingsJere270,959 buildingsBiu143,905 buildingsAskira Uba106,024 buildingsHawul98,080 buildingsGwoza85,955 buildingsMagumeri83,627 buildingsGubio82,437 buildingsShani81,462 buildingsMobbar77,593 buildingsBama75,703 buildingsBayo73,959 buildings