Borno State

Rooftop solar in Mobbar, Borno: what the roofs are worth

Mobbar has 77,593 buildings with a viable rooftop and 259 MWp of roof capacity. 2% run a generator, and together they spend ₦4.05bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

77,593

Usable roof area

1.19 km²

259 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦4.05bn/yr

3.05 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

17.1 yr

Median IRR 5% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Mobbar

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦4.05bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦3.52bn

Lifetime cash saved₦195bn

NPV₦26.7bn

Median IRR5%

Median payback17.1 yr

Unlocked energy4.96 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity31.6 MWp

Capex₦34.8bn

Year-one energy value₦37.5bn

Lifetime energy value₦1.75tn

NPV₦304bn

Median IRR101%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Mobbar's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 31.6 MWp
Capital cost: ₦34.8bn
Year 1 savings: ₦37.5bn/yr
NPV: ₦304bn
Median IRR: 101%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Mobbar pays back quickly

Of the 77,338 buildings in Mobbar with a modelled payback, 10.2% pay back inside five years and 2.5% inside three.

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How much of Mobbar's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Mobbar consume 8.72 GWh/yr but want 13.7 GWh/yr. The 36% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Mobbar

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Mobbar actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 77,338 buildings with a modelled result out of 77,593 in Mobbar. 11,358 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years1,896 (2%)

Under 5 years7,861 (10%)

Under 7 years11,412 (15%)

Under 10 years16,002 (21%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%14,494 (19%)

Above 15%11,358 (15%)

Above 20%8,586 (11%)

Above 25%6,918 (9%)

CO₂ avoided

7.74 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

1.35 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

4.96 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

146k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Mobbar.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Mobbar

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	28,650	125	₦1.01bn	₦710m	5%	17.9 yr
E	27,231	337	₦1.72bn	₦1.56bn	5%	17.6 yr
C	19,450	857	₦842m	₦842m	7%	13.9 yr
B	2,262	133	₦483m	₦407m	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	76,118	623	₦2.85bn	₦2.31bn	5%	17.4 yr
Commercial Retail	1,015	542	₦89.3m	₦89.3m	49%	2.1 yr
Commercial General	250	134	₦440m	₦440m	49%	2.1 yr
Worship	131	98	₦15.4m	₦15.4m	57%	1.9 yr
Anchor	66	49	₦658m	₦657m	61%	1.6 yr
Industrial	11	6	₦3.07m	₦3.07m	67%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	2	0	₦462k	₦462k	33%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	63,838	688	₦179m	₦179m	5%	17.9 yr
30 50m2	8,315	314	₦224m	₦224m	11%	9.4 yr
50 100m2	4,315	239	₦594m	₦522m	31%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	937	146	₦1.09bn	₦882m	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	164	52	₦1.27bn	₦1.01bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	24	13	₦698m	₦698m	41%	2.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	45,947	210	₦2.16bn	₦1.71bn	5%	18.1 yr
Rural	14,864	107	₦363m	₦363m	5%	17.1 yr
Dense Urban	10,259	698	₦865m	₦821m	19%	5.6 yr
Urban	6,523	437	₦669m	₦618m	9%	13.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	65,315	388	₦141m	₦141m	5%	17.6 yr
Residential Small	5,890	121	₦615m	₦581m	29%	3.6 yr
Residential	2,996	114	₦2.08bn	₦1.58bn	17%	5.9 yr
Residential Informal	1,917	0	₦13.3m	₦13.3m	15%	7.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,015	542	₦89.3m	₦89.3m	49%	2.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	192	92	₦204m	₦204m	39%	2.9 yr
Institutional	83	59	₦368m	₦368m	55%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	44	33	₦3.76m	₦3.76m	59%	1.9 yr
Place Of Worship	44	33	₦2.54m	₦2.54m	57%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	21	16	₦35.9m	₦35.9m	85%	1.1 yr
Commercial	18	13	₦165m	₦165m	49%	2.1 yr
School	13	9	₦12.4m	₦12.4m	75%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	77,282	1,319	₦3.97bn	₦3.47bn
Industrial	175	132	₦21.1m	₦21.1m
Farmland	122	0	₦470k	₦470k
Retail	14	1	₦62.1m	₦23.1m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	77,315	1,299	₦3.02bn	₦2.49bn	5%	17.4 yr
SME High	205	100	₦369m	₦369m	39%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	73	53	₦660m	₦659m	63%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	65,347	414	₦142m	₦142m
2.0	5,252	135	₦977m	₦759m
1.0	3,664	650	₦293m	₦293m
3.0	2,600	223	₦2.29bn	₦1.98bn
4.0	686	26	₦165m	₦165m
5.0	42	4	₦163m	₦163m
6.0	2	0	₦18.9m	₦18.9m