Borno State

Rooftop solar in Hawul, Borno: what the roofs are worth

Hawul has 98,080 buildings with a viable rooftop and 603 MWp of roof capacity. 4% run a generator, and together they spend ₦6.1bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

98,080

Usable roof area

2.74 km²

603 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦6.1bn/yr

4.36 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

9.9 yr

Median IRR 9% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Hawul

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦6.1bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦6bn

Lifetime cash saved₦338bn

NPV₦47.2bn

Median IRR9%

Median payback9.9 yr

Unlocked energy8.25 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity59.3 MWp

Capex₦64.8bn

Year-one energy value₦70.5bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.35tn

NPV₦579bn

Median IRR105%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Hawul's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 59.3 MWp
Capital cost: ₦64.8bn
Year 1 savings: ₦70.5bn/yr
NPV: ₦579bn
Median IRR: 105%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Hawul pays back quickly

Of the 96,230 buildings in Hawul with a modelled payback, 27.8% pay back inside five years and 4.7% inside three.

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How much of Hawul's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Hawul consume 13.4 GWh/yr but want 21.7 GWh/yr. The 38% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Hawul

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Hawul actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 96,230 buildings with a modelled result out of 98,080 in Hawul. 36,802 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years4,519 (5%)

Under 5 years26,797 (28%)

Under 7 years36,890 (38%)

Under 10 years48,887 (51%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%44,672 (46%)

Above 15%36,802 (38%)

Above 20%29,264 (30%)

Above 25%23,270 (24%)

CO₂ avoided

13.2 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

2.44 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

8.25 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

261k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Hawul.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Hawul

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	34,162	1,337	₦1.79bn	₦1.73bn	7%	14.1 yr
E	26,524	641	₦946m	₦925m	7%	14.4 yr
C	25,833	1,376	₦2.19bn	₦2.19bn	17%	6.1 yr
B	11,561	785	₦1.17bn	₦1.16bn	15%	6.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	96,199	3,116	₦4.82bn	₦4.73bn	9%	12.9 yr
Commercial Retail	514	166	₦44.2m	₦44.2m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial General	498	223	₦408m	₦408m	37%	2.9 yr
Worship	494	362	₦103m	₦103m	59%	1.9 yr
Anchor	359	264	₦704m	₦690m	63%	1.6 yr
Industrial	15	7	₦25.2m	₦25.2m	41%	2.6 yr
Filling Station	1	1	₦902k	₦902k	53%	2.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	54,136	1,567	₦293m	₦293m	7%	15.6 yr
30 50m2	20,271	785	₦575m	₦552m	11%	8.9 yr
50 100m2	18,648	953	₦1.51bn	₦1.51bn	29%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	4,589	677	₦1.85bn	₦1.8bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	431	153	₦1.62bn	₦1.6bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	5	4	₦255m	₦255m	79%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	39,488	721	₦1.62bn	₦1.53bn	7%	14.9 yr
Urban	24,706	2,106	₦2.47bn	₦2.47bn	15%	6.6 yr
Rural	21,248	500	₦714m	₦714m	9%	9.6 yr
Dense Urban	12,638	812	₦1.3bn	₦1.29bn	15%	6.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	59,592	1,185	₦242m	₦242m	7%	15.1 yr
Residential Small	24,135	1,311	₦1.9bn	₦1.87bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential	8,318	620	₦2.66bn	₦2.61bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Formal	4,150	0	₦14.3m	₦14.3m	7%	9.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	514	166	₦44.2m	₦44.2m	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	331	230	₦203m	₦203m	55%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	196	67	₦106m	₦106m	37%	2.9 yr
Worship Center	168	122	₦32.5m	₦32.5m	63%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	163	122	₦15.9m	₦15.9m	61%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	132	96	₦111m	₦111m	83%	1.4 yr
Commercial	125	41	₦148m	₦148m	37%	2.9 yr
School	115	87	₦70.9m	₦70.9m	81%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	97,929	4,139	₦6.1bn	₦6bn
Farmland	95	0	₦3.54m	₦3.54m
Retail	51	0	₦89.7k	₦89.7k
Farmyard	5	0	₦25.2k	₦25.2k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	97,391	3,763	₦5.13bn	₦5.05bn	9%	9.9 yr
Enterprise	367	267	₦714m	₦701m	61%	1.6 yr
SME High	322	109	₦256m	₦256m	37%	2.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	59,664	1,235	₦245m	₦245m
2.0	16,298	920	₦1.49bn	₦1.43bn
1.0	9,272	686	₦690m	₦685m
3.0	9,023	1,048	₦3.44bn	₦3.41bn
4.0	3,723	237	₦135m	₦135m
5.0	87	3	₦29.7m	₦29.7m
6.0	13	10	₦70.3m	₦70.3m