Borno State

Rooftop solar in Gwoza, Borno: what the roofs are worth

Gwoza has 85,955 buildings with a viable rooftop and 512 MWp of roof capacity. 10% run a generator, and together they spend ₦19bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

85,955

Usable roof area

2.33 km²

512 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦19bn/yr

14.3 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

6.1 yr

Median IRR 17% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Gwoza

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦19bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦17.1bn

Lifetime cash saved₦902bn

NPV₦141bn

Median IRR17%

Median payback6.1 yr

Unlocked energy16.5 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity80.1 MWp

Capex₦85.6bn

Year-one energy value₦90.6bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.23tn

NPV₦734bn

Median IRR95%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Gwoza's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 80.1 MWp
Capital cost: ₦85.6bn
Year 1 savings: ₦90.6bn/yr
NPV: ₦734bn
Median IRR: 95%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Gwoza pays back quickly

Of the 85,465 buildings in Gwoza with a modelled payback, 38.4% pay back inside five years and 11.8% inside three.

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How much of Gwoza's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Gwoza consume 31.8 GWh/yr but want 48.3 GWh/yr. The 34% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Gwoza

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Gwoza actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 85,465 buildings with a modelled result out of 85,955 in Gwoza. 46,690 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years10,052 (12%)

Under 5 years32,820 (38%)

Under 7 years46,829 (55%)

Under 10 years57,659 (67%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%54,966 (64%)

Above 15%46,690 (54%)

Above 20%36,230 (42%)

Above 25%28,217 (33%)

CO₂ avoided

34.1 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

8.52 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

16.5 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

380k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Gwoza.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Gwoza

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	35,837	3,601	₦7.86bn	₦6.88bn	19%	5.6 yr
B	22,266	1,490	₦2.54bn	₦2.53bn	23%	4.9 yr
D	13,952	1,409	₦5.11bn	₦4.57bn	7%	15.1 yr
E	13,900	1,842	₦3.44bn	₦3.07bn	7%	14.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	80,882	6,329	₦17.5bn	₦15.6bn	15%	6.6 yr
Commercial Retail	3,734	1,392	₦274m	₦274m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial General	882	283	₦685m	₦685m	37%	2.9 yr
Worship	286	212	₦72.9m	₦72.9m	57%	1.9 yr
Anchor	158	117	₦386m	₦386m	61%	1.6 yr
Industrial	12	8	₦6.6m	₦6.6m	65%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	1	1	₦762k	₦762k	43%	2.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	48,420	3,900	₦619m	₦618m	9%	13.1 yr
30 50m2	19,512	1,734	₦1.19bn	₦1.08bn	21%	5.1 yr
50 100m2	13,994	1,693	₦4.17bn	₦3.85bn	31%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	3,560	805	₦7.3bn	₦5.96bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	460	207	₦5.36bn	₦5.24bn	37%	2.9 yr
Over 1000m2	9	3	₦314m	₦314m	33%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	25,964	3,470	₦3.65bn	₦3.58bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	21,583	628	₦3.51bn	₦2.69bn	7%	14.9 yr
Dense Urban	21,387	1,840	₦3.58bn	₦3.33bn	19%	5.6 yr
Urban	11,851	2,088	₦7.64bn	₦6.89bn	11%	8.6 yr
Rural	5,170	316	₦575m	₦566m	7%	14.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	44,720	3,197	₦341m	₦341m	7%	13.9 yr
Residential Formal	17,244	0	₦225m	₦222m	21%	5.1 yr
Residential Small	13,382	1,643	₦4.85bn	₦4.43bn	31%	3.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	3,734	1,392	₦274m	₦274m	37%	2.9 yr
Residential	3,389	771	₦11.4bn	₦9.95bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential Informal	2,142	718	₦701m	₦689m	31%	3.6 yr
Commercial	522	189	₦494m	₦494m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	279	29	₦107m	₦107m	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	165	130	₦312m	₦312m	55%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	114	79	₦20.5m	₦20.5m	57%	1.9 yr
Place Of Worship	81	63	₦8.93m	₦8.93m	59%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	56	48	₦36.7m	₦36.7m	87%	1.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	79,846	8,243	₦18.9bn	₦17bn
Farmland	6,098	99	₦62.4m	₦62.4m
Industrial	9	0	₦4.59m	₦4.59m
Farmyard	2	0	₦29.1k	₦29.1k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	84,991	8,003	₦18bn	₦16.1bn	17%	6.4 yr
SME High	803	219	₦602m	₦602m	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	161	120	₦389m	₦389m	61%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	44,816	3,252	₦344m	₦344m
4.0	13,583	132	₦828m	₦826m
3.0	10,880	1,609	₦10.7bn	₦10.2bn
2.0	10,329	1,560	₦5.63bn	₦4.44bn
1.0	6,178	1,786	₦1.24bn	₦1.13bn
5.0	162	3	₦144m	₦144m
6.0	7	0	₦20.8m	₦20.8m