Borno State

Rooftop solar in Damboa, Borno: what the roofs are worth

Damboa has 66,534 buildings with a viable rooftop and 382 MWp of roof capacity. 3% run a generator, and together they spend ₦10.3bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

66,534

Usable roof area

1.74 km²

382 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦10.3bn/yr

7.41 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

7.6 yr

Median IRR 13% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Damboa

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦10.3bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦9.27bn

Lifetime cash saved₦498bn

NPV₦74.8bn

Median IRR13%

Median payback7.6 yr

Unlocked energy9.25 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity62.1 MWp

Capex₦67.4bn

Year-one energy value₦74.8bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.5tn

NPV₦610bn

Median IRR105%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Damboa's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 62.1 MWp
Capital cost: ₦67.4bn
Year 1 savings: ₦74.8bn/yr
NPV: ₦610bn
Median IRR: 105%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Damboa pays back quickly

Of the 66,319 buildings in Damboa with a modelled payback, 36.3% pay back inside five years and 2.9% inside three.

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How much of Damboa's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Damboa consume 18.7 GWh/yr but want 28 GWh/yr. The 33% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Damboa

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Damboa actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 66,319 buildings with a modelled result out of 66,534 in Damboa. 31,921 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years1,922 (3%)

Under 5 years24,049 (36%)

Under 7 years31,980 (48%)

Under 10 years40,531 (61%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%37,394 (56%)

Above 15%31,921 (48%)

Above 20%26,343 (40%)

Above 25%20,744 (31%)

CO₂ avoided

18.9 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

4.36 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

9.25 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

321k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Damboa.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Damboa

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	23,011	326	₦2.03bn	₦1.66bn	7%	13.9 yr
C	15,391	1,078	₦3.96bn	₦3.79bn	19%	5.9 yr
E	14,323	473	₦3.88bn	₦3.39bn	9%	13.6 yr
B	13,809	256	₦440m	₦437m	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	65,660	1,462	₦9.65bn	₦8.62bn	13%	7.9 yr
Worship	359	274	₦84m	₦84m	61%	1.6 yr
Anchor	184	121	₦386m	₦385m	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	181	166	₦19.9m	₦19.9m	49%	2.1 yr
Commercial General	130	100	₦154m	₦154m	53%	1.9 yr
Industrial	20	10	₦9.67m	₦9.67m	41%	1.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	35,793	750	₦224m	₦223m	7%	14.4 yr
30 50m2	17,675	511	₦510m	₦509m	17%	6.4 yr
50 100m2	10,653	427	₦1.65bn	₦1.49bn	31%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	2,112	354	₦4.52bn	₦3.84bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	287	88	₦3.19bn	₦3bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	14	3	₦209m	₦209m	33%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	25,986	1,138	₦5.06bn	₦4.72bn	23%	4.9 yr
Unclassified	14,591	236	₦1.49bn	₦1.19bn	7%	14.9 yr
Rural	14,154	336	₦1.75bn	₦1.58bn	9%	13.1 yr
Urban	10,216	415	₦1.97bn	₦1.75bn	9%	9.6 yr
Dense Urban	1,587	8	₦30m	₦30m	7%	14.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	39,503	672	₦165m	₦165m	7%	14.1 yr
Residential Small	10,555	321	₦1.94bn	₦1.78bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential Formal	7,472	0	₦136m	₦136m	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	4,387	303	₦7.14bn	₦6.27bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Informal	3,736	166	₦265m	₦265m	31%	3.6 yr
Institutional	205	150	₦282m	₦282m	57%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	181	166	₦19.9m	₦19.9m	49%	2.1 yr
Worship Center	129	95	₦16.2m	₦16.2m	65%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	111	90	₦10.6m	₦10.6m	65%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	72	53	₦86.6m	₦86.6m	83%	1.4 yr
School	39	27	₦28.4m	₦28.4m	79%	1.4 yr
Clinic	29	18	₦19.9m	₦19.7m	51%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	65,933	2,007	₦10.2bn	₦9.2bn
Retail	601	126	₦68m	₦68m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	66,303	1,972	₦9.88bn	₦8.85bn	13%	7.6 yr
Enterprise	193	128	₦392m	₦391m	57%	1.9 yr
SME High	38	33	₦25.8m	₦25.8m	51%	2.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	39,544	707	₦167m	₦167m
2.0	8,932	455	₦2.08bn	₦2bn
1.0	7,111	550	₦765m	₦681m
4.0	5,853	23	₦324m	₦324m
3.0	5,094	398	₦6.97bn	₦6.1bn