Borno State

Rooftop solar in Kwaya Kusar, Borno: what the roofs are worth

Kwaya Kusar has 56,346 buildings with a viable rooftop and 272 MWp of roof capacity. 7% run a generator, and together they spend ₦4.62bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

56,346

Usable roof area

1.24 km²

272 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦4.62bn/yr

3.6 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

9.4 yr

Median IRR 9% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Kwaya Kusar

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦4.62bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦4.55bn

Lifetime cash saved₦256bn

NPV₦36.6bn

Median IRR9%

Median payback9.4 yr

Unlocked energy6.25 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity33.8 MWp

Capex₦36.6bn

Year-one energy value₦38.1bn

Lifetime energy value₦1.79tn

NPV₦310bn

Median IRR99%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Kwaya Kusar's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 33.8 MWp
Capital cost: ₦36.6bn
Year 1 savings: ₦38.1bn/yr
NPV: ₦310bn
Median IRR: 99%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Kwaya Kusar pays back quickly

Of the 55,952 buildings in Kwaya Kusar with a modelled payback, 26.9% pay back inside five years and 7.6% inside three.

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How much of Kwaya Kusar's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Kwaya Kusar consume 9.8 GWh/yr but want 16.1 GWh/yr. The 39% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Kwaya Kusar

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Kwaya Kusar actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 55,952 buildings with a modelled result out of 56,346 in Kwaya Kusar. 24,426 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years4,231 (8%)

Under 5 years15,025 (27%)

Under 7 years24,482 (44%)

Under 10 years29,317 (52%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%28,058 (50%)

Above 15%24,426 (43%)

Above 20%17,068 (30%)

Above 25%13,252 (24%)

CO₂ avoided

9.83 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

1.87 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

6.25 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

143k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Kwaya Kusar.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Kwaya Kusar

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	15,689	804	₦1bn	₦992m	7%	15.9 yr
C	14,997	1,611	₦1.29bn	₦1.29bn	17%	6.1 yr
E	12,928	611	₦784m	₦720m	5%	16.9 yr
B	12,732	988	₦1.54bn	₦1.54bn	19%	5.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	54,146	2,444	₦3.38bn	₦3.3bn	9%	9.9 yr
Commercial Retail	1,059	781	₦147m	₦147m	63%	1.6 yr
Worship	500	328	₦72.6m	₦72.6m	55%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	487	352	₦608m	₦608m	65%	1.6 yr
Anchor	130	99	₦411m	₦411m	63%	1.6 yr
Industrial	23	9	₦5.09m	₦5.09m	39%	2.6 yr
Filling Station	1	1	₦894k	₦894k	57%	1.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	37,299	1,770	₦352m	₦288m	5%	15.9 yr
30 50m2	10,151	953	₦405m	₦405m	21%	5.4 yr
50 100m2	7,035	811	₦1.08bn	₦1.08bn	31%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	1,696	411	₦1.68bn	₦1.68bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	162	68	₦1.03bn	₦1.03bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	3	1	₦74.4m	₦74.4m	31%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	22,167	378	₦992m	₦929m	5%	17.1 yr
Urban	13,349	1,151	₦1.02bn	₦1.01bn	19%	5.9 yr
Rural	11,969	1,537	₦1.26bn	₦1.26bn	9%	9.6 yr
Dense Urban	8,861	948	₦1.35bn	₦1.35bn	19%	5.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	37,916	947	₦176m	₦176m	7%	15.6 yr
Residential Small	9,229	748	₦1.18bn	₦1.17bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential	3,994	749	₦2bn	₦1.94bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Formal	3,006	0	₦17.7m	₦17.7m	13%	7.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,059	781	₦147m	₦147m	63%	1.6 yr
Institutional	238	169	₦223m	₦223m	55%	1.9 yr
Commercial	215	133	₦359m	₦359m	65%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	166	106	₦10.8m	₦10.8m	53%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	165	108	₦14.9m	₦14.9m	55%	1.9 yr
Market	106	105	₦36.8m	₦36.8m	73%	1.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	97	59	₦109m	₦109m	59%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	43	34	₦77m	₦77m	85%	1.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	56,213	3,982	₦4.61bn	₦4.54bn
Retail	133	32	₦5.39m	₦5.39m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	55,900	3,720	₦3.74bn	₦3.67bn	9%	9.4 yr
SME High	313	193	₦469m	₦469m	65%	1.6 yr
Enterprise	133	101	₦414m	₦414m	63%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	38,059	1,029	₦180m	₦180m
2.0	6,735	909	₦1.13bn	₦1.13bn
1.0	5,218	1,344	₦595m	₦532m
3.0	4,030	704	₦2.47bn	₦2.47bn
4.0	2,300	25	₦166m	₦166m
5.0	4	3	₦71.2m	₦71.2m