Borno State

Rooftop solar in Guzamala, Borno: what the roofs are worth

Guzamala has 26,136 buildings with a viable rooftop and 85.4 MWp of roof capacity. 10% run a generator, and together they spend ₦2.36bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

26,136

Usable roof area

396,150 m²

85.4 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦2.36bn/yr

1.94 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

16.9 yr

Median IRR 5% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Guzamala

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦2.36bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦2.31bn

Lifetime cash saved₦123bn

NPV₦18.8bn

Median IRR5%

Median payback16.9 yr

Unlocked energy2.09 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity13.1 MWp

Capex₦14.5bn

Year-one energy value₦17.1bn

Lifetime energy value₦796bn

NPV₦140bn

Median IRR103%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Guzamala's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 13.1 MWp
Capital cost: ₦14.5bn
Year 1 savings: ₦17.1bn/yr
NPV: ₦140bn
Median IRR: 103%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Guzamala pays back quickly

Of the 26,129 buildings in Guzamala with a modelled payback, 17.5% pay back inside five years and 10.5% inside three.

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How much of Guzamala's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Guzamala consume 3.66 GWh/yr but want 5.75 GWh/yr. The 36% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Guzamala

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Guzamala actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 26,129 buildings with a modelled result out of 26,136 in Guzamala. 5,317 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years2,737 (10%)

Under 5 years4,584 (18%)

Under 7 years5,330 (20%)

Under 10 years6,236 (24%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%5,851 (22%)

Above 15%5,317 (20%)

Above 20%4,702 (18%)

Above 25%4,350 (17%)

CO₂ avoided

4.45 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

1.2 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

2.09 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

74.1k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Guzamala.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Guzamala

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	12,386	1,831	₦1.43bn	₦1.39bn	5%	16.4 yr
D	11,375	782	₦852m	₦851m	5%	17.1 yr
C	2,375	127	₦71.9m	₦71.9m	5%	17.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	24,320	1,652	₦2.08bn	₦2.04bn	5%	17.1 yr
Worship	1,696	971	₦68.5m	₦68.5m	43%	2.4 yr
Anchor	68	66	₦97.3m	₦97.3m	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	43	42	₦94.2m	₦94.2m	65%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	6	6	₦8.55m	₦8.55m	71%	1.4 yr
Industrial	2	2	₦8.66m	₦8.66m	71%	1.1 yr
Hospitality	1	1	₦91k	₦91k	61%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	21,619	1,566	₦217m	₦216m	5%	17.4 yr
30 50m2	2,685	548	₦234m	₦234m	11%	9.4 yr
50 100m2	1,464	440	₦464m	₦464m	31%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	335	168	₦962m	₦920m	53%	2.1 yr
250 1000m2	33	18	₦480m	₦480m	69%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	20,010	1,013	₦1.21bn	₦1.16bn	5%	17.4 yr
Rural	3,445	492	₦545m	₦545m	5%	15.9 yr
Dense Urban	2,630	1,235	₦604m	₦604m	31%	3.4 yr
Urban	51	0	₦1.88m	₦1.88m	9%	9.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	21,113	591	₦85m	₦85m	5%	17.4 yr
Residential Small	2,339	791	₦636m	₦636m	31%	3.4 yr
Residential	868	270	₦1.36bn	₦1.31bn	31%	3.4 yr
Worship Center	601	338	₦14.8m	₦14.8m	41%	2.6 yr
Institutional	595	352	₦118m	₦118m	51%	2.1 yr
Place Of Worship	530	310	₦14.4m	₦14.4m	41%	2.6 yr
Educational Facility	18	17	₦35.7m	₦35.7m	95%	1.1 yr
School	15	14	₦8.45m	₦8.45m	93%	1.1 yr
Clinic	13	13	₦20.8m	₦20.8m	61%	1.6 yr
Healthcare Facility	12	12	₦22.5m	₦22.5m	61%	1.6 yr
Hospital	10	10	₦9.81m	₦9.81m	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial	8	8	₦13.3m	₦13.3m	73%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	26,012	2,702	₦2.34bn	₦2.3bn
Farmland	86	0	₦976k	₦976k
Retail	38	38	₦16.4m	₦16.4m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	26,059	2,665	₦2.23bn	₦2.19bn	5%	16.9 yr
Enterprise	69	67	₦106m	₦106m	63%	1.6 yr
SME High	8	8	₦19.9m	₦19.9m	73%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	21,968	1,054	₦102m	₦102m
2.0	1,760	643	₦733m	₦733m
1.0	1,658	666	₦224m	₦222m
3.0	750	377	₦1.3bn	₦1.26bn