Borno State

Rooftop solar in Ngala, Borno: what the roofs are worth

Ngala has 59,860 buildings with a viable rooftop and 450 MWp of roof capacity. 19% run a generator, and together they spend ₦70.2bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

59,860

Usable roof area

2.03 km²

450 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦70.2bn/yr

57.6 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ngala

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦70.2bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦58bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.85tn

NPV₦473bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy23.8 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity108 MWp

Capex₦113bn

Year-one energy value₦112bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.18tn

NPV₦892bn

Median IRR91%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Ngala's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 108 MWp
Capital cost: ₦113bn
Year 1 savings: ₦112bn/yr
NPV: ₦892bn
Median IRR: 91%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ngala pays back quickly

Of the 59,770 buildings in Ngala with a modelled payback, 55.8% pay back inside five years and 22.4% inside three.

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How much of Ngala's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ngala consume 93.3 GWh/yr but want 117 GWh/yr. The 20% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ngala

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ngala actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 59,770 buildings with a modelled result out of 59,860 in Ngala. 48,081 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years13,375 (22%)

Under 5 years33,340 (56%)

Under 7 years48,190 (81%)

Under 10 years53,310 (89%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%52,385 (88%)

Above 15%48,081 (80%)

Above 20%36,884 (62%)

Above 25%29,334 (49%)

CO₂ avoided

99 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

32.7 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

23.8 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

346k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ngala.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ngala

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	30,947	7,640	₦41.7bn	₦36.2bn	23%	4.6 yr
B	21,272	2,410	₦11.9bn	₦10.9bn	27%	3.9 yr
D	4,106	471	₦4.45bn	₦2.86bn	7%	14.4 yr
E	3,535	713	₦12.1bn	₦8.06bn	11%	9.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	55,903	9,825	₦66.6bn	₦54.4bn	23%	4.9 yr
Commercial Retail	2,331	858	₦288m	₦288m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial General	1,468	418	₦1.57bn	₦1.57bn	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	90	75	₦1.71bn	₦1.7bn	61%	1.9 yr
Worship	56	49	₦22.1m	₦22.1m	63%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	9	8	₦15.2m	₦15.2m	57%	1.9 yr
Industrial	3	1	₦4.23m	₦4.23m	41%	2.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	32,300	4,130	₦1.48bn	₦1.42bn	19%	5.9 yr
30 50m2	11,575	2,369	₦2.75bn	₦2.53bn	25%	4.1 yr
50 100m2	10,130	2,714	₦13.2bn	₦12bn	31%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	5,077	1,665	₦28bn	₦23bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	745	332	₦21.3bn	₦16bn	39%	2.9 yr
Over 1000m2	33	24	₦3.45bn	₦3.07bn	53%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	45,494	8,058	₦47.5bn	₦41.5bn	25%	4.1 yr
Unclassified	9,397	1,757	₦12bn	₦7.74bn	17%	6.1 yr
Rural	3,103	690	₦2.53bn	₦1.92bn	19%	5.6 yr
Urban	1,446	679	₦7.17bn	₦5.98bn	31%	3.4 yr
Dense Urban	420	50	₦910m	₦883m	23%	4.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	26,964	4,189	₦598m	₦598m	17%	6.1 yr
Residential Small	12,454	3,347	₦16.1bn	₦14.4bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential Formal	7,649	164	₦634m	₦590m	27%	3.9 yr
Residential Informal	4,670	747	₦9.29bn	₦9.27bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential	4,148	1,377	₦39.9bn	₦29.5bn	31%	3.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	2,243	858	₦267m	₦267m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial	909	299	₦970m	₦970m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	522	90	₦502m	₦502m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Retail	88	0	₦21.1m	₦21.1m	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	65	58	₦1.66bn	₦1.64bn	55%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	22	21	₦36.4m	₦36.4m	85%	1.1 yr
Worship Center	22	19	₦11.4m	₦11.4m	67%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	58,877	11,207	₦69.9bn	₦57.8bn
Farmland	612	27	₦208m	₦193m
Retail	360	0	₦24.9m	₦24.9m
Commercial	9	0	₦2.62m	₦2.62m
Industrial	2	0	₦706k	₦706k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	58,243	10,765	₦66.9bn	₦54.8bn	23%	4.6 yr
SME High	1,528	396	₦1.51bn	₦1.51bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	89	73	₦1.71bn	₦1.7bn	61%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	26,971	4,195	₦598m	₦598m
4.0	10,778	449	₦5.86bn	₦5.81bn
3.0	9,612	3,008	₦50bn	₦39.6bn
2.0	8,312	2,665	₦10.1bn	₦9.11bn
1.0	3,101	611	₦2.35bn	₦1.68bn
5.0	1,021	277	₦823m	₦823m
6.0	65	29	₦393m	₦393m