Borno State

Rooftop solar in Monguno, Borno: what the roofs are worth

Monguno has 58,334 buildings with a viable rooftop and 296 MWp of roof capacity. 8% run a generator, and together they spend ₦18.9bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

58,334

Usable roof area

1.35 km²

296 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦18.9bn/yr

16.1 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

5.6 yr

Median IRR 19% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Monguno

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦18.9bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦14.7bn

Lifetime cash saved₦733bn

NPV₦117bn

Median IRR19%

Median payback5.6 yr

Unlocked energy4.77 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity28.7 MWp

Capex₦31.5bn

Year-one energy value₦31.7bn

Lifetime energy value₦1.47tn

NPV₦253bn

Median IRR79%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Monguno's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 28.7 MWp
Capital cost: ₦31.5bn
Year 1 savings: ₦31.7bn/yr
NPV: ₦253bn
Median IRR: 79%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Monguno pays back quickly

Of the 58,004 buildings in Monguno with a modelled payback, 38.5% pay back inside five years and 6.7% inside three.

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How much of Monguno's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Monguno consume 24.5 GWh/yr but want 29.3 GWh/yr. The 16% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Monguno

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Monguno actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 58,004 buildings with a modelled result out of 58,334 in Monguno. 38,595 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years3,914 (7%)

Under 5 years22,336 (39%)

Under 7 years38,868 (67%)

Under 10 years50,970 (88%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%49,393 (85%)

Above 15%38,595 (66%)

Above 20%26,666 (46%)

Above 25%15,433 (26%)

CO₂ avoided

24.3 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

8.2 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

4.77 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

154k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Monguno.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Monguno

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	38,686	2,656	₦2.31bn	₦2.31bn	19%	5.4 yr
C	12,349	145	₦5.11bn	₦3.68bn	15%	6.6 yr
A	4,567	1,307	₦270m	₦270m	25%	4.4 yr
D	1,781	503	₦8.46bn	₦7.47bn	9%	13.4 yr
E	951	47	₦2.72bn	₦956m	7%	15.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	58,161	4,570	₦17.4bn	₦13.5bn	19%	5.6 yr
Anchor	109	54	₦1.08bn	₦858m	47%	2.1 yr
Commercial General	53	27	₦365m	₦365m	37%	2.9 yr
Worship	9	5	₦3.46m	₦3.46m	45%	2.4 yr
Industrial	2	2	₦2.64m	₦2.64m	47%	1.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	38,735	1,955	₦389m	₦378m	15%	6.6 yr
30 50m2	10,674	995	₦364m	₦349m	23%	4.6 yr
50 100m2	6,682	1,011	₦2.21bn	₦1.32bn	31%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	1,920	543	₦7.93bn	₦5.11bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	309	145	₦6.42bn	₦6.1bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	14	9	₦1.57bn	₦1.42bn	41%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	52,589	3,717	₦6.02bn	₦5.3bn	19%	5.6 yr
Unclassified	2,615	206	₦5.74bn	₦2.99bn	7%	13.9 yr
Urban	1,978	317	₦328m	₦328m	17%	6.1 yr
Rural	724	52	₦1.29bn	₦638m	9%	9.6 yr
Dense Urban	428	366	₦5.51bn	₦5.42bn	87%	1.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	29,455	1,828	₦321m	₦321m	17%	6.6 yr
Residential Informal	15,174	2,101	₦1.07bn	₦1.07bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Formal	10,265	1	₦102m	₦102m	19%	5.9 yr
Residential	1,979	378	₦13.8bn	₦10.8bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Small	1,287	262	₦2.11bn	₦1.2bn	31%	3.4 yr
Institutional	56	29	₦1.06bn	₦913m	37%	2.4 yr
Educational Facility	29	20	₦75.5m	₦75.5m	91%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	28	12	₦264m	₦184m	33%	3.4 yr
Clinic	21	5	₦12.7m	₦12.3m	31%	3.4 yr
School	15	7	₦11.1m	₦11.1m	49%	2.1 yr
Hospital	14	8	₦28.7m	₦28.4m	43%	2.4 yr
Worship Center	4	3	₦1.12m	₦1.12m	49%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	58,334	4,658	₦18.9bn	₦14.7bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	58,223	4,602	₦17.8bn	₦13.8bn	19%	5.6 yr
Enterprise	107	54	₦1.08bn	₦856m	47%	2.1 yr
SME High	4	2	₦5.39m	₦4.95m	33%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	29,420	1,828	₦321m	₦321m
2.0	9,578	1,336	₦4.19bn	₦2.42bn
4.0	7,563	174	₦896m	₦896m
3.0	6,989	1,037	₦13bn	₦10.7bn
1.0	4,784	283	₦476m	₦357m