Borno State

Rooftop solar in Marte, Borno: what the roofs are worth

Marte has 10,361 buildings with a viable rooftop and 87.3 MWp of roof capacity. 35% run a generator, and together they spend ₦33.4bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

10,361

Usable roof area

395,106 m²

87.3 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦33.4bn/yr

31.1 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

3.9 yr

Median IRR 27% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Marte

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦33.4bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦24.4bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.15tn

NPV₦199bn

Median IRR27%

Median payback3.9 yr

Unlocked energy7.61 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity39.9 MWp

Capex₦42.2bn

Year-one energy value₦51.2bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.31tn

NPV₦412bn

Median IRR115%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Marte's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 39.9 MWp
Capital cost: ₦42.2bn
Year 1 savings: ₦51.2bn/yr
NPV: ₦412bn
Median IRR: 115%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Marte pays back quickly

Of the 10,346 buildings in Marte with a modelled payback, 51.2% pay back inside five years and 34.8% inside three.

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How much of Marte's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Marte consume 39.3 GWh/yr but want 46.9 GWh/yr. The 16% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Marte

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Marte actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 10,346 buildings with a modelled result out of 10,361 in Marte. 6,003 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years3,598 (35%)

Under 5 years5,297 (51%)

Under 7 years6,004 (58%)

Under 10 years7,398 (72%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%6,871 (66%)

Above 15%6,003 (58%)

Above 20%5,490 (53%)

Above 25%5,201 (50%)

CO₂ avoided

38.9 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

14 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

7.61 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

172k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Marte.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Marte

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	4,729	2,224	₦12.7bn	₦10.1bn	31%	3.4 yr
D	2,992	714	₦13.9bn	₦9.33bn	9%	9.4 yr
E	2,640	660	₦6.75bn	₦4.99bn	11%	8.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	10,098	3,347	₦28.6bn	₦20.4bn	21%	5.1 yr
Worship	152	141	₦336m	₦336m	65%	1.6 yr
Anchor	71	70	₦3.33bn	₦2.87bn	81%	1.4 yr
Commercial General	32	32	₦214m	₦214m	63%	1.6 yr
Industrial	8	8	₦867m	₦534m	79%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	5,044	1,346	₦254m	₦252m	9%	13.1 yr
30 50m2	2,515	809	₦964m	₦732m	13%	8.1 yr
50 100m2	1,867	824	₦4.74bn	₦3.76bn	33%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	774	493	₦11bn	₦8.12bn	77%	1.4 yr
250 1000m2	139	107	₦11.4bn	₦7.59bn	97%	1.1 yr
Over 1000m2	22	19	₦5.01bn	₦3.94bn	81%	1.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Dense Urban	3,927	2,210	₦9.09bn	₦6.97bn	55%	1.9 yr
Unclassified	3,662	496	₦12.5bn	₦7.31bn	9%	13.1 yr
Rural	2,064	488	₦4.46bn	₦3.67bn	31%	3.6 yr
Urban	708	404	₦7.34bn	₦6.44bn	63%	1.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	6,606	1,693	₦184m	₦184m	9%	9.6 yr
Residential Small	2,437	1,063	₦5.95bn	₦4.74bn	33%	3.4 yr
Residential	1,055	591	₦22.5bn	₦15.5bn	67%	1.6 yr
Institutional	96	94	₦3.58bn	₦3.11bn	63%	1.6 yr
Worship Center	54	47	₦13.3m	₦13.3m	69%	1.4 yr
Place Of Worship	46	44	₦7.23m	₦7.23m	69%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	18	17	₦45.3m	₦45.3m	93%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	12	12	₦110m	₦110m	61%	1.6 yr
School	12	12	₦22m	₦22m	95%	1.1 yr
Clinic	7	7	₦17m	₦17m	61%	1.6 yr
Hospital	6	6	₦84.6m	₦84.6m	65%	1.6 yr
Industrial Site	5	5	₦17.1m	₦17.1m	79%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	9,510	3,413	₦31.4bn	₦22.7bn
Farmland	813	156	₦1.46bn	₦1.22bn
Industrial	29	29	₦523m	₦496m
Retail	9	0	₦1.46m	₦1.46m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	10,283	3,521	₦29.2bn	₦21bn	23%	4.6 yr
Enterprise	78	77	₦4.2bn	₦3.4bn	81%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	6,622	1,707	₦185m	₦185m
2.0	1,507	749	₦6.47bn	₦4.56bn
3.0	1,327	796	₦25.4bn	₦18.7bn
1.0	904	345	₦1.24bn	₦895m
4.0	1	1	₦36.6m	₦36.6m