Borno State

Rooftop solar in Kukawa, Borno: what the roofs are worth

Kukawa has 25,220 buildings with a viable rooftop and 175 MWp of roof capacity. 20% run a generator, and together they spend ₦46.7bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

25,220

Usable roof area

792,107 m²

175 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦46.7bn/yr

41 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

5.9 yr

Median IRR 19% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Kukawa

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦46.7bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦36.2bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.75tn

NPV₦296bn

Median IRR19%

Median payback5.9 yr

Unlocked energy11 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity61.3 MWp

Capex₦65.1bn

Year-one energy value₦75.6bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.48tn

NPV₦613bn

Median IRR105%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Kukawa's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 61.3 MWp
Capital cost: ₦65.1bn
Year 1 savings: ₦75.6bn/yr
NPV: ₦613bn
Median IRR: 105%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Kukawa pays back quickly

Of the 25,171 buildings in Kukawa with a modelled payback, 43.3% pay back inside five years and 20.4% inside three.

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How much of Kukawa's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Kukawa consume 55 GWh/yr but want 66 GWh/yr. The 17% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Kukawa

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Kukawa actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 25,171 buildings with a modelled result out of 25,220 in Kukawa. 13,420 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years5,128 (20%)

Under 5 years10,894 (43%)

Under 7 years13,427 (53%)

Under 10 years15,108 (60%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%14,540 (58%)

Above 15%13,420 (53%)

Above 20%11,827 (47%)

Above 25%10,048 (40%)

CO₂ avoided

58.8 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

21.1 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

11 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

245k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Kukawa.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Kukawa

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	10,963	3,671	₦16.7bn	₦14.8bn	31%	3.4 yr
D	6,606	822	₦13bn	₦9.35bn	5%	16.1 yr
E	4,502	602	₦16.7bn	₦11.8bn	5%	16.9 yr
B	3,149	26	₦435m	₦297m	23%	4.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	23,790	3,717	₦43.7bn	₦33.3bn	15%	6.6 yr
Commercial Retail	912	910	₦225m	₦225m	53%	2.1 yr
Commercial General	401	397	₦633m	₦474m	51%	2.1 yr
Anchor	69	61	₦2.13bn	₦2.11bn	69%	1.6 yr
Worship	39	31	₦54.4m	₦54.4m	59%	1.9 yr
Industrial	8	5	₦29.2m	₦29.2m	55%	1.9 yr
Hospitality	1	0	₦42.5k	₦42.5k	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	14,296	2,089	₦383m	₦383m	7%	15.9 yr
30 50m2	4,869	1,108	₦1.01bn	₦937m	23%	4.9 yr
50 100m2	4,339	1,048	₦6.51bn	₦5.07bn	31%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	1,417	657	₦19.6bn	₦14.5bn	33%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	277	201	₦16.4bn	₦12.7bn	91%	1.1 yr
Over 1000m2	22	18	₦2.83bn	₦2.65bn	81%	1.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	17,830	1,542	₦31.7bn	₦22.6bn	9%	9.9 yr
Dense Urban	5,618	2,951	₦11.9bn	₦11bn	49%	2.1 yr
Urban	1,360	614	₦2.74bn	₦2.39bn	31%	3.4 yr
Rural	412	14	₦336m	₦182m	5%	16.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	15,595	1,742	₦217m	₦217m	7%	15.4 yr
Residential Small	4,653	1,146	₦7.1bn	₦5.63bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential Formal	2,056	0	₦50.7m	₦50.7m	23%	4.6 yr
Residential	1,485	829	₦36.3bn	₦27.4bn	77%	1.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	912	910	₦225m	₦225m	53%	2.1 yr
Market	213	213	₦32.2m	₦32.2m	49%	2.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	156	156	₦218m	₦218m	53%	1.9 yr
Institutional	58	48	₦2.32bn	₦2.14bn	59%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	17	16	₦95.8m	₦95.8m	87%	1.1 yr
Clinic	14	11	₦91.5m	₦89.5m	59%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	13	11	₦1.53m	₦1.53m	59%	1.9 yr
School	13	13	₦21.5m	₦21.5m	81%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	25,212	5,121	₦46.7bn	₦36.2bn
Farmland	8	0	₦16.8k	₦16.8k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	24,992	4,901	₦44.4bn	₦33.8bn	19%	5.9 yr
SME High	156	156	₦218m	₦218m	53%	1.9 yr
Enterprise	72	64	₦2.15bn	₦2.14bn	69%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	15,599	1,745	₦218m	₦218m
2.0	2,969	996	₦12bn	₦8.72bn
3.0	2,635	1,069	₦31.9bn	₦25bn
1.0	2,499	1,297	₦2.47bn	₦2.11bn
4.0	1,516	14	₦116m	₦116m
5.0	2	0	₦652k	₦652k