Borno State

Rooftop solar in Abadam, Borno: what the roofs are worth

Abadam has 24,465 buildings with a viable rooftop and 116 MWp of roof capacity. 6% run a generator, and together they spend ₦6.86bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

24,465

Usable roof area

530,297 m²

116 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦6.86bn/yr

5.56 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

14.9 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Abadam

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦6.86bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦5.52bn

Lifetime cash saved₦277bn

NPV₦45.3bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback14.9 yr

Unlocked energy4.38 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity26.4 MWp

Capex₦28.6bn

Year-one energy value₦36bn

Lifetime energy value₦1.65tn

NPV₦294bn

Median IRR109%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Abadam's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 26.4 MWp
Capital cost: ₦28.6bn
Year 1 savings: ₦36bn/yr
NPV: ₦294bn
Median IRR: 109%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Abadam pays back quickly

Of the 24,457 buildings in Abadam with a modelled payback, 21.1% pay back inside five years and 5.8% inside three.

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How much of Abadam's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Abadam consume 9.6 GWh/yr but want 14 GWh/yr. The 31% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Abadam

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Abadam actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 24,457 buildings with a modelled result out of 24,465 in Abadam. 5,728 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years1,423 (6%)

Under 5 years5,152 (21%)

Under 7 years5,736 (23%)

Under 10 years7,971 (33%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%6,905 (28%)

Above 15%5,728 (23%)

Above 20%5,297 (22%)

Above 25%4,789 (20%)

CO₂ avoided

10.4 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

2.98 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

4.38 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

160k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Abadam.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Abadam

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	10,732	581	₦1.29bn	₦1.25bn	7%	14.4 yr
D	10,433	390	₦4.44bn	₦3.51bn	7%	15.1 yr
C	3,300	451	₦1.13bn	₦749m	7%	15.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	24,336	1,300	₦6.56bn	₦5.22bn	7%	14.9 yr
Worship	60	57	₦12m	₦12m	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	41	38	₦74.5m	₦74.5m	69%	1.6 yr
Anchor	16	16	₦204m	₦204m	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	6	6	₦806k	₦806k	67%	1.6 yr
Industrial	6	5	₦6.18m	₦6.18m	75%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	16,604	547	₦86.2m	₦86.2m	5%	16.4 yr
30 50m2	4,450	344	₦314m	₦313m	9%	9.4 yr
50 100m2	2,620	323	₦1.37bn	₦1.32bn	31%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	713	174	₦3.24bn	₦2.41bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	75	31	₦1.63bn	₦1.17bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	3	3	₦217m	₦217m	73%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	17,389	697	₦5.21bn	₦4.24bn	7%	15.9 yr
Rural	5,477	342	₦1.27bn	₦902m	9%	9.9 yr
Urban	1,599	383	₦378m	₦377m	23%	4.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	18,719	719	₦87.3m	₦87.3m	5%	15.9 yr
Residential Small	3,535	403	₦1.66bn	₦1.61bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential	2,082	178	₦4.82bn	₦3.52bn	23%	4.9 yr
Institutional	40	37	₦218m	₦218m	59%	1.9 yr
Place Of Worship	23	22	₦2.07m	₦2.07m	63%	1.6 yr
Worship Center	16	15	₦1.26m	₦1.26m	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	15	15	₦31.7m	₦31.7m	71%	1.4 yr
Market	7	6	₦11.1m	₦11.1m	69%	1.6 yr
Industrial Site	6	5	₦6.18m	₦6.18m	75%	1.4 yr
Clinic	6	6	₦8.28m	₦8.28m	59%	1.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	6	6	₦806k	₦806k	67%	1.6 yr
Healthcare Facility	5	5	₦7.09m	₦7.09m	59%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	24,283	1,420	₦6.83bn	₦5.49bn
Farmland	162	0	₦6.08m	₦6.08m
Farmyard	18	0	₦592k	₦592k
Retail	2	2	₦22.4m	₦22.4m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	24,428	1,386	₦6.62bn	₦5.27bn	7%	14.9 yr
Enterprise	22	21	₦210m	₦210m	63%	1.6 yr
SME High	15	15	₦31.7m	₦31.7m	71%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	18,731	730	₦87.8m	₦87.8m
2.0	2,839	309	₦2.1bn	₦1.93bn
1.0	1,874	190	₦573m	₦569m
3.0	1,013	185	₦4.07bn	₦2.9bn
4.0	8	8	₦26.3m	₦26.3m