Borno State

Rooftop solar in Chibok, Borno: what the roofs are worth

Chibok has 46,758 buildings with a viable rooftop and 286 MWp of roof capacity. 6% run a generator, and together they spend ₦4.73bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

46,758

Usable roof area

1.3 km²

286 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦4.73bn/yr

3.64 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

8.4 yr

Median IRR 11% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Chibok

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦4.73bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦4.5bn

Lifetime cash saved₦244bn

NPV₦36.3bn

Median IRR11%

Median payback8.4 yr

Unlocked energy4.83 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity31.2 MWp

Capex₦34.2bn

Year-one energy value₦37.3bn

Lifetime energy value₦1.77tn

NPV₦307bn

Median IRR107%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Chibok's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 31.2 MWp
Capital cost: ₦34.2bn
Year 1 savings: ₦37.3bn/yr
NPV: ₦307bn
Median IRR: 107%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Chibok pays back quickly

Of the 46,663 buildings in Chibok with a modelled payback, 34.5% pay back inside five years and 5.6% inside three.

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How much of Chibok's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Chibok consume 8.52 GWh/yr but want 13.4 GWh/yr. The 36% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Chibok

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Chibok actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 46,663 buildings with a modelled result out of 46,758 in Chibok. 21,500 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years2,625 (6%)

Under 5 years16,083 (34%)

Under 7 years21,562 (46%)

Under 10 years26,923 (58%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%24,984 (53%)

Above 15%21,500 (46%)

Above 20%17,349 (37%)

Above 25%14,007 (30%)

CO₂ avoided

9.15 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

2.13 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

4.83 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

130k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Chibok.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Chibok

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	15,734	448	₦789m	₦789m	9%	13.6 yr
D	14,179	503	₦957m	₦774m	9%	13.6 yr
C	10,873	785	₦2.62bn	₦2.56bn	19%	5.6 yr
B	5,972	884	₦369m	₦369m	23%	4.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	46,249	2,150	₦4.07bn	₦3.83bn	11%	8.6 yr
Worship	259	240	₦88.2m	₦88.2m	63%	1.6 yr
Anchor	157	146	₦482m	₦482m	67%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	84	76	₦91.9m	₦91.9m	57%	1.9 yr
Industrial	9	8	₦3.41m	₦3.41m	69%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	24,754	1,036	₦189m	₦189m	7%	15.1 yr
30 50m2	10,439	484	₦251m	₦251m	17%	6.4 yr
50 100m2	9,777	654	₦748m	₦748m	31%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	1,572	343	₦1.4bn	₦1.31bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	204	96	₦1.67bn	₦1.53bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	12	7	₦475m	₦475m	39%	2.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Rural	17,368	608	₦1.04bn	₦946m	9%	13.4 yr
Dense Urban	13,414	1,352	₦1.37bn	₦1.36bn	21%	5.1 yr
Unclassified	9,429	186	₦863m	₦724m	7%	14.1 yr
Urban	6,547	474	₦1.46bn	₦1.46bn	9%	9.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	26,488	597	₦103m	₦103m	7%	14.6 yr
Residential Small	12,918	1,170	₦1.02bn	₦1.02bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential	4,086	383	₦2.92bn	₦2.69bn	21%	5.1 yr
Residential Formal	2,753	0	₦24.7m	₦24.7m	19%	5.9 yr
Institutional	165	152	₦404m	₦404m	57%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	90	83	₦17.3m	₦17.3m	67%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	84	78	₦9.58m	₦9.58m	65%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	53	50	₦58.8m	₦58.8m	85%	1.1 yr
School	39	36	₦23.5m	₦23.5m	87%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	26	24	₦48.1m	₦48.1m	57%	1.9 yr
Clinic	21	19	₦36.2m	₦36.2m	55%	1.9 yr
Hospital	15	14	₦61.9m	₦61.9m	43%	2.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	46,728	2,620	₦4.73bn	₦4.5bn
Retail	29	0	₦572k	₦572k
Farmyard	1	0	₦22.6k	₦22.6k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	46,593	2,467	₦4.25bn	₦4.01bn	11%	8.6 yr
Enterprise	162	150	₦479m	₦479m	69%	1.6 yr
SME High	3	3	₦4.48m	₦4.48m	55%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	26,519	627	₦105m	₦105m
2.0	8,234	773	₦1.08bn	₦985m
1.0	5,132	475	₦254m	₦254m
3.0	4,607	744	₦3.26bn	₦3.12bn
4.0	2,266	1	₦32.8m	₦32.8m