Borno State

Rooftop solar in Kala Balge, Borno: what the roofs are worth

Kala Balge has 8,466 buildings with a viable rooftop and 53.3 MWp of roof capacity. 5% run a generator, and together they spend ₦15.9bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

8,466

Usable roof area

243,799 m²

53.3 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦15.9bn/yr

13.8 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

6.9 yr

Median IRR 15% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Kala Balge

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦15.9bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦5.24bn

Lifetime cash saved₦248bn

NPV₦41.7bn

Median IRR15%

Median payback6.9 yr

Unlocked energy2.63 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity14.1 MWp

Capex₦15bn

Year-one energy value₦18.1bn

Lifetime energy value₦807bn

NPV₦144bn

Median IRR103%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Kala Balge's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 14.1 MWp
Capital cost: ₦15bn
Year 1 savings: ₦18.1bn/yr
NPV: ₦144bn
Median IRR: 103%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Kala Balge pays back quickly

Of the 8,434 buildings in Kala Balge with a modelled payback, 24.6% pay back inside five years and 5.4% inside three.

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How much of Kala Balge's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Kala Balge consume 18.7 GWh/yr but want 21.3 GWh/yr. The 12% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Kala Balge

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Kala Balge actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 8,434 buildings with a modelled result out of 8,466 in Kala Balge. 4,248 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years457 (5%)

Under 5 years2,073 (25%)

Under 7 years4,269 (51%)

Under 10 years5,585 (66%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%5,316 (63%)

Above 15%4,248 (50%)

Above 20%2,435 (29%)

Above 25%1,992 (24%)

CO₂ avoided

9.11 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

2.76 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

2.63 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

138k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Kala Balge.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Kala Balge

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	3,275	53	₦1.67bn	₦445m	17%	6.1 yr
D	2,065	234	₦11.2bn	₦3.54bn	7%	14.6 yr
E	1,652	113	₦2.89bn	₦1.02bn	7%	14.4 yr
B	1,474	56	₦237m	₦237m	19%	5.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	8,268	276	₦15.3bn	₦4.61bn	15%	7.1 yr
Worship	98	86	₦50.5m	₦50.5m	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	43	41	₦204m	₦168m	67%	1.6 yr
Anchor	27	23	₦402m	₦394m	69%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	27	27	₦12.7m	₦12.7m	73%	1.4 yr
Industrial	3	3	₦3.28m	₦3.28m	77%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	4,985	111	₦43.9m	₦43.9m	9%	9.4 yr
30 50m2	2,009	99	₦1.03bn	₦246m	17%	6.1 yr
50 100m2	999	105	₦2.67bn	₦1.14bn	31%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	379	102	₦4.68bn	₦1.87bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	86	35	₦6.8bn	₦1.44bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	8	4	₦726m	₦494m	33%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	7,144	387	₦15.7bn	₦5.06bn	15%	6.9 yr
Rural	1,322	69	₦236m	₦172m	9%	9.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	6,317	116	₦44m	₦44m	11%	9.1 yr
Residential Small	1,238	71	₦3.87bn	₦1.35bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential	713	89	₦11.4bn	₦3.21bn	31%	3.6 yr
Institutional	73	65	₦549m	₦506m	59%	1.9 yr
Place Of Worship	29	26	₦4.49m	₦4.49m	67%	1.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	27	27	₦12.7m	₦12.7m	73%	1.4 yr
Worship Center	23	20	₦3.46m	₦3.46m	65%	1.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	12	12	₦29.7m	₦29.7m	75%	1.4 yr
Educational Facility	8	8	₦25.6m	₦25.6m	93%	1.1 yr
School	7	5	₦10.2m	₦10.2m	87%	1.1 yr
Commercial	5	5	₦6.31m	₦6.31m	73%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	3	3	₦6.71m	₦6.71m	61%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	7,816	436	₦14.8bn	₦4.9bn
Farmland	650	20	₦1.15bn	₦339m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	8,420	414	₦15.5bn	₦4.8bn	15%	6.9 yr
Enterprise	29	25	₦405m	₦397m	77%	1.4 yr
SME High	17	17	₦36m	₦36m	73%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	6,328	124	₦44.5m	₦44.5m
1.0	863	102	₦2.21bn	₦524m
2.0	700	91	₦2.61bn	₦1.18bn
3.0	574	138	₦11.1bn	₦3.49bn
4.0	1	1	₦3.81m	₦3.81m