Borno State

Rooftop solar in Kaga, Borno: what the roofs are worth

Kaga has 50,225 buildings with a viable rooftop and 232 MWp of roof capacity. 6% run a generator, and together they spend ₦10.3bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

50,225

Usable roof area

1.06 km²

232 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦10.3bn/yr

8.67 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

15.4 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Kaga

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦10.3bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦9.27bn

Lifetime cash saved₦477bn

NPV₦75.7bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback15.4 yr

Unlocked energy6.11 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity32.2 MWp

Capex₦34.9bn

Year-one energy value₦38.2bn

Lifetime energy value₦1.78tn

NPV₦310bn

Median IRR101%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Kaga's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 32.2 MWp
Capital cost: ₦34.9bn
Year 1 savings: ₦38.2bn/yr
NPV: ₦310bn
Median IRR: 101%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Kaga pays back quickly

Of the 49,811 buildings in Kaga with a modelled payback, 22.6% pay back inside five years and 6.6% inside three.

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How much of Kaga's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Kaga consume 15.2 GWh/yr but want 21.3 GWh/yr. The 29% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Kaga

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Kaga actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 49,811 buildings with a modelled result out of 50,225 in Kaga. 15,891 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years3,272 (7%)

Under 5 years11,271 (23%)

Under 7 years15,933 (32%)

Under 10 years18,623 (37%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%17,743 (35%)

Above 15%15,891 (32%)

Above 20%12,435 (25%)

Above 25%10,046 (20%)

CO₂ avoided

16.8 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

4.86 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

6.11 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

153k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Kaga.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Kaga

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	20,132	1,483	₦2.94bn	₦2.93bn	19%	5.6 yr
D	15,698	848	₦4.95bn	₦3.96bn	5%	17.1 yr
E	14,395	716	₦2.38bn	₦2.38bn	5%	17.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	49,231	2,407	₦8.92bn	₦7.92bn	7%	15.6 yr
Commercial Retail	593	355	₦57.9m	₦57.9m	45%	2.4 yr
Commercial General	207	131	₦269m	₦269m	49%	2.1 yr
Worship	97	72	₦22m	₦22m	59%	1.9 yr
Anchor	86	75	₦999m	₦998m	63%	1.6 yr
Industrial	11	7	₦5.38m	₦4.52m	63%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	35,278	1,185	₦222m	₦215m	5%	17.1 yr
30 50m2	8,831	867	₦515m	₦514m	19%	5.9 yr
50 100m2	4,691	440	₦1.23bn	₦1.17bn	31%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	1,205	431	₦4.67bn	₦3.92bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	213	119	₦2.72bn	₦2.54bn	63%	1.6 yr
Over 1000m2	7	5	₦920m	₦920m	73%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	31,200	334	₦1.53bn	₦1.16bn	5%	17.1 yr
Dense Urban	13,517	875	₦1.71bn	₦1.71bn	21%	4.9 yr
Rural	3,226	1,056	₦1.68bn	₦1.68bn	9%	12.9 yr
Urban	2,282	782	₦5.35bn	₦4.73bn	19%	5.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	37,268	1,238	₦191m	₦191m	5%	16.9 yr
Residential Formal	5,531	93	₦177m	₦171m	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Small	4,277	459	₦1.43bn	₦1.37bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential	2,151	617	₦7.12bn	₦6.19bn	31%	3.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	593	355	₦57.9m	₦57.9m	45%	2.4 yr
Commercial	113	57	₦136m	₦136m	41%	2.6 yr
Institutional	73	57	₦463m	₦463m	57%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	41	30	₦11.1m	₦11.1m	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	37	35	₦51.3m	₦51.3m	51%	2.1 yr
Educational Facility	34	29	₦55.4m	₦55.4m	85%	1.1 yr
Place Of Worship	27	20	₦3.08m	₦3.08m	63%	1.6 yr
Healthcare Facility	16	15	₦481m	₦481m	57%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	50,225	3,047	₦10.3bn	₦9.27bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	49,981	2,876	₦9.08bn	₦8.09bn	7%	15.4 yr
SME High	150	92	₦187m	₦187m	47%	2.4 yr
Enterprise	94	79	₦1bn	₦1bn	63%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	37,283	1,244	₦192m	₦192m
4.0	4,338	96	₦212m	₦206m
2.0	3,950	694	₦1.57bn	₦1.57bn
3.0	3,131	639	₦7.89bn	₦6.9bn
1.0	1,482	341	₦284m	₦281m
5.0	33	26	₦40m	₦40m
6.0	8	7	₦86.3m	₦86.3m