Borno State

Rooftop solar in Mafa, Borno: what the roofs are worth

Mafa has 44,717 buildings with a viable rooftop and 274 MWp of roof capacity. 8% run a generator, and together they spend ₦7.7bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

44,717

Usable roof area

1.24 km²

274 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦7.7bn/yr

5.78 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

5.4 yr

Median IRR 19% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Mafa

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦7.7bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦6.38bn

Lifetime cash saved₦339bn

NPV₦51bn

Median IRR19%

Median payback5.4 yr

Unlocked energy5.62 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity25.8 MWp

Capex₦28.3bn

Year-one energy value₦27.8bn

Lifetime energy value₦1.29tn

NPV₦222bn

Median IRR83%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Mafa's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 25.8 MWp
Capital cost: ₦28.3bn
Year 1 savings: ₦27.8bn/yr
NPV: ₦222bn
Median IRR: 83%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Mafa pays back quickly

Of the 44,214 buildings in Mafa with a modelled payback, 44.0% pay back inside five years and 6.9% inside three.

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How much of Mafa's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Mafa consume 13.3 GWh/yr but want 18.9 GWh/yr. The 30% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Mafa

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Mafa actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 44,214 buildings with a modelled result out of 44,717 in Mafa. 29,053 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years3,029 (7%)

Under 5 years19,465 (44%)

Under 7 years29,122 (66%)

Under 10 years33,451 (76%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%32,582 (73%)

Above 15%29,053 (65%)

Above 20%22,105 (49%)

Above 25%15,839 (35%)

CO₂ avoided

12.6 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

3.02 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

5.62 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

126k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Mafa.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Mafa

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	15,686	464	₦1.6bn	₦1.59bn	25%	4.4 yr
C	10,574	233	₦448m	₦448m	15%	6.9 yr
A	9,094	2,090	₦694m	₦689m	31%	3.6 yr
E	5,184	311	₦3.06bn	₦2.57bn	5%	15.9 yr
D	4,179	264	₦1.9bn	₦1.08bn	7%	15.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	44,465	3,209	₦7.1bn	₦5.78bn	19%	5.4 yr
Worship	108	65	₦10.9m	₦10.9m	51%	2.1 yr
Anchor	95	59	₦512m	₦506m	53%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	43	26	₦71.3m	₦71.3m	39%	2.6 yr
Industrial	5	3	₦7.59m	₦7.59m	51%	2.1 yr
Commercial Retail	1	0	₦63.7k	₦63.7k	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	25,997	1,529	₦275m	₦269m	15%	7.1 yr
30 50m2	9,117	609	₦399m	₦397m	25%	4.4 yr
50 100m2	6,624	585	₦1.12bn	₦991m	31%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	2,768	575	₦2.75bn	₦2.23bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	196	56	₦2.19bn	₦1.92bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	15	8	₦963m	₦568m	39%	2.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	23,125	2,087	₦1.07bn	₦1.06bn	25%	4.4 yr
Dense Urban	7,533	129	₦1.2bn	₦1.2bn	15%	6.9 yr
Unclassified	6,023	269	₦2.64bn	₦2.06bn	5%	15.9 yr
Rural	5,061	836	₦2.74bn	₦2.01bn	9%	9.4 yr
Urban	2,975	41	₦48.8m	₦48.8m	13%	7.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	25,757	1,815	₦219m	₦219m	13%	7.4 yr
Residential Informal	7,376	783	₦631m	₦631m	31%	3.6 yr
Residential Small	4,296	185	₦1.11bn	₦977m	31%	3.6 yr
Residential Formal	4,107	0	₦71.4m	₦71.4m	23%	4.6 yr
Residential	2,929	426	₦5.06bn	₦3.88bn	29%	3.6 yr
Institutional	77	50	₦236m	₦236m	53%	2.1 yr
Worship Center	40	22	₦3.16m	₦3.16m	47%	2.1 yr
Place Of Worship	33	20	₦1.62m	₦1.62m	51%	2.1 yr
Educational Facility	25	18	₦38.7m	₦38.7m	77%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	22	14	₦255m	₦249m	55%	1.9 yr
Clinic	17	9	₦29.3m	₦29.2m	37%	2.9 yr
School	16	11	₦9.65m	₦9.65m	55%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	44,696	3,362	₦7.7bn	₦6.37bn
Farmland	21	0	₦1.83m	₦1.83m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	44,617	3,300	₦7.18bn	₦5.86bn	19%	5.4 yr
Enterprise	97	62	₦518m	₦512m	53%	1.9 yr
SME High	3	0	₦1.01m	₦1.01m	37%	2.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	23,635	1,829	₦198m	₦198m
2.0	6,549	533	₦1.54bn	₦1.22bn
3.0	5,962	765	₦5.33bn	₦4.37bn
1.0	4,301	118	₦293m	₦257m
4.0	4,268	117	₦338m	₦338m
5.0	2	0	₦501k	₦501k