Borno State

Rooftop solar in Dikwa, Borno: what the roofs are worth

Dikwa has 33,553 buildings with a viable rooftop and 181 MWp of roof capacity. 13% run a generator, and together they spend ₦26.5bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

33,553

Usable roof area

825,265 m²

181 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦26.5bn/yr

22.8 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.9 yr

Median IRR 23% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Dikwa

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦26.5bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦17.4bn

Lifetime cash saved₦851bn

NPV₦141bn

Median IRR23%

Median payback4.9 yr

Unlocked energy9.18 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity44 MWp

Capex₦46.2bn

Year-one energy value₦48.9bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.23tn

NPV₦389bn

Median IRR89%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Dikwa's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 44 MWp
Capital cost: ₦46.2bn
Year 1 savings: ₦48.9bn/yr
NPV: ₦389bn
Median IRR: 89%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Dikwa pays back quickly

Of the 33,539 buildings in Dikwa with a modelled payback, 51.4% pay back inside five years and 18.7% inside three.

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How much of Dikwa's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Dikwa consume 35.7 GWh/yr but want 44.9 GWh/yr. The 20% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Dikwa

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Dikwa actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 33,539 buildings with a modelled result out of 33,553 in Dikwa. 23,334 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years6,267 (19%)

Under 5 years17,240 (51%)

Under 7 years23,373 (70%)

Under 10 years26,645 (79%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%25,827 (77%)

Above 15%23,334 (70%)

Above 20%19,229 (57%)

Above 25%14,784 (44%)

CO₂ avoided

30.2 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

9.33 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

9.18 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

225k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Dikwa.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Dikwa

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	15,453	2,917	₦4.13bn	₦3.77bn	25%	4.6 yr
C	11,397	380	₦7.89bn	₦6.24bn	23%	4.9 yr
D	4,398	940	₦8.43bn	₦4.63bn	9%	12.9 yr
E	2,305	259	₦6.04bn	₦2.78bn	7%	15.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	30,077	3,310	₦23.6bn	₦14.6bn	21%	5.1 yr
Commercial Retail	2,685	836	₦138m	₦138m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial General	503	119	₦1.47bn	₦1.32bn	37%	2.9 yr
Worship	191	165	₦121m	₦121m	63%	1.6 yr
Anchor	87	61	₦1.2bn	₦1.19bn	59%	1.9 yr
Industrial	7	3	₦2.58m	₦2.58m	41%	2.6 yr
Hospitality	3	2	₦840k	₦840k	47%	2.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	21,582	2,411	₦680m	₦670m	17%	6.1 yr
30 50m2	6,262	854	₦1.24bn	₦978m	25%	4.1 yr
50 100m2	4,343	790	₦4bn	₦3.14bn	31%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	1,125	332	₦10bn	₦5.07bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	218	94	₦7.98bn	₦5.15bn	39%	2.9 yr
Over 1000m2	23	15	₦2.57bn	₦2.41bn	65%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Dense Urban	21,953	2,982	₦5.38bn	₦5.02bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	4,661	320	₦9.33bn	₦4.57bn	7%	15.9 yr
Rural	3,610	1,025	₦7.96bn	₦4.64bn	31%	3.6 yr
Urban	3,329	169	₦3.83bn	₦3.18bn	11%	8.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	14,890	1,305	₦163m	₦163m	11%	9.1 yr
Residential Informal	4,739	9	₦238m	₦238m	29%	3.9 yr
Residential Formal	4,621	0	₦65.4m	₦64.2m	21%	5.1 yr
Residential Small	3,599	917	₦5.9bn	₦3.91bn	31%	3.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	2,685	836	₦138m	₦138m	37%	2.9 yr
Residential	2,227	1,079	₦17.2bn	₦10.3bn	33%	3.4 yr
Commercial	331	28	₦896m	₦750m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	124	57	₦428m	₦428m	39%	2.9 yr
Institutional	112	91	₦1.28bn	₦1.27bn	59%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	74	66	₦30.4m	₦30.4m	67%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	54	45	₦10.5m	₦10.5m	65%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	27	21	₦47.4m	₦47.4m	87%	1.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	33,467	4,480	₦25.1bn	₦16.8bn
Farmland	68	1	₦23.2m	₦23.2m
Industrial	18	15	₦1.37bn	₦582m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	33,016	4,354	₦24bn	₦15bn	21%	4.9 yr
SME High	446	79	₦1.32bn	₦1.18bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	91	63	₦1.2bn	₦1.19bn	59%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	14,919	1,327	₦164m	₦164m
2.0	7,201	1,050	₦5.14bn	₦3.9bn
1.0	4,124	1,578	₦1.85bn	₦1.26bn
4.0	3,528	17	₦337m	₦336m
3.0	3,489	519	₦18bn	₦10.8bn
5.0	271	5	₦1bn	₦855m
6.0	21	0	₦48.7m	₦48.7m