Borno State

Rooftop solar in Nganzai, Borno: what the roofs are worth

Nganzai has 32,260 buildings with a viable rooftop and 116 MWp of roof capacity. 3% run a generator, and together they spend ₦4.65bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

32,260

Usable roof area

531,203 m²

116 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦4.65bn/yr

4.28 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

14.1 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Nganzai

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦4.65bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦3.5bn

Lifetime cash saved₦187bn

NPV₦28.2bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback14.1 yr

Unlocked energy3.9 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity18.9 MWp

Capex₦20.3bn

Year-one energy value₦20.6bn

Lifetime energy value₦942bn

NPV₦163bn

Median IRR93%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Nganzai's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 18.9 MWp
Capital cost: ₦20.3bn
Year 1 savings: ₦20.6bn/yr
NPV: ₦163bn
Median IRR: 93%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Nganzai pays back quickly

Of the 32,012 buildings in Nganzai with a modelled payback, 21.4% pay back inside five years and 3.5% inside three.

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How much of Nganzai's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Nganzai consume 8.23 GWh/yr but want 12.1 GWh/yr. The 32% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Nganzai

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Nganzai actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 32,012 buildings with a modelled result out of 32,260 in Nganzai. 10,816 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years1,129 (4%)

Under 5 years6,866 (21%)

Under 7 years10,878 (34%)

Under 10 years14,954 (47%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%14,228 (44%)

Above 15%10,816 (34%)

Above 20%7,539 (23%)

Above 25%5,500 (17%)

CO₂ avoided

6.84 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

1.45 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

3.9 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

93.3k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Nganzai.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Nganzai

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	10,538	286	₦898m	₦854m	13%	7.4 yr
E	7,644	261	₦1.71bn	₦1.37bn	5%	17.6 yr
D	7,500	202	₦1.67bn	₦900m	5%	17.6 yr
B	6,578	90	₦371m	₦371m	17%	5.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	29,871	363	₦2.99bn	₦1.85bn	7%	15.1 yr
Worship	1,261	298	₦44.3m	₦44.3m	23%	4.6 yr
Commercial Retail	897	79	₦26m	₦26m	33%	3.4 yr
Commercial General	142	33	₦130m	₦130m	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	83	61	₦1.46bn	₦1.44bn	61%	1.6 yr
Industrial	6	5	₦6.64m	₦6.64m	61%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	26,963	504	₦198m	₦152m	5%	15.9 yr
30 50m2	2,836	57	₦213m	₦115m	21%	5.4 yr
50 100m2	1,727	68	₦353m	₦335m	31%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	610	170	₦1.18bn	₦836m	33%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	100	26	₦1.28bn	₦652m	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	24	14	₦1.43bn	₦1.41bn	61%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	14,181	418	₦3.53bn	₦2.38bn	5%	17.6 yr
Dense Urban	12,866	85	₦340m	₦340m	17%	6.4 yr
Urban	2,838	168	₦252m	₦252m	13%	7.9 yr
Rural	2,375	168	₦531m	₦521m	5%	16.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	22,653	190	₦70.6m	₦70.6m	5%	16.9 yr
Residential Small	4,154	38	₦393m	₦375m	23%	4.4 yr
Residential Informal	2,339	0	₦46m	₦46m	23%	4.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	897	79	₦26m	₦26m	33%	3.4 yr
Residential	725	135	₦2.48bn	₦1.36bn	31%	3.4 yr
Institutional	463	131	₦1.39bn	₦1.37bn	27%	3.9 yr
Worship Center	455	108	₦9.95m	₦9.95m	19%	5.9 yr
Place Of Worship	381	88	₦6.44m	₦6.44m	19%	5.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	80	4	₦28.4m	₦28.4m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial	35	7	₦14.7m	₦14.7m	37%	2.9 yr
Educational Facility	22	19	₦27.3m	₦27.3m	89%	1.1 yr
Hospital	17	10	₦27.4m	₦27.4m	33%	3.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	32,260	839	₦4.65bn	₦3.5bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	32,059	764	₦3.14bn	₦2.01bn	7%	14.1 yr
SME High	115	11	₦43.1m	₦43.1m	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	86	64	₦1.46bn	₦1.44bn	61%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	23,253	313	₦78.2m	₦78.2m
2.0	4,419	134	₦702m	₦545m
1.0	2,174	225	₦172m	₦126m
3.0	1,899	160	₦3.61bn	₦2.65bn
4.0	460	7	₦67.3m	₦67.3m
5.0	54	0	₦22.4m	₦22.4m
6.0	1	0	₦2.46m	₦2.46m