Nigeria rooftop solar data

Rooftop solar in Niger State: buildings, spend and payback

2,879,469 buildings in Niger State carry a viable rooftop. Together they spend ₦420bn a year on grid power and generator fuel, and 6% of them run a generator.

Viable buildings

2,879,469

Usable roof area

117 km²

25.9 GWp of roof capacity

Current energy spend

₦420bn/yr

345 GWh/yr from generators

Median payback

9.4 yr

Median IRR 9% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Niger

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦420bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦406bn

Lifetime cash saved₦22.2tn

NPV₦3.2tn

Median IRR9%

Median payback9.4 yr

Unlocked energy422 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity2.36 GWp

Capex₦2.47tn

Year-one energy value₦2.2tn

Lifetime energy value₦104tn

NPV₦17.5tn

Median IRR95%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Niger State's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 2.36 GWp
Capital cost: ₦2.47tn
Year 1 savings: ₦2.2tn/yr
NPV: ₦17.5tn
Median IRR: 95%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Niger State pays back quickly

Of the 2,811,994 buildings in Niger State with a modelled payback, 30.7% pay back inside five years and 6.2% inside three.

Payback under 5 years

30.7%

Payback under 3 years

6.2%

IRR above 20%

32.9%

Under 3 years · 6%3 – 5 years · 24%5 – 7 years · 11%7 – 10 years · 11%Over 10 years · 47%

Coverage: 98% of buildings in Niger State produced a payback figure. Buildings with no viable scenario are excluded rather than counted as zero.

How much of Niger State's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Niger State consume 832 GWh/yr but want 1.25 TWh/yr. The 34% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Met today · 66%Suppressed · 34%

Energy wanted

1.25 TWh/yr

Energy consumed

832 GWh/yr

Unmet demand

422 GWh/yr

Modelled latent demand, not metered consumption. It is the load buildings would run given affordable, available supply.

How many rooftops in Niger State actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 2,811,994 buildings with a modelled result out of 2,879,469 in Niger State. 1,183,288 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years175,531 (6%)

Under 5 years863,677 (31%)

Under 7 years1,183,927 (42%)

Under 10 years1,497,210 (53%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%1,407,371 (49%)

Above 15%1,183,288 (41%)

Above 20%948,205 (33%)

Above 25%717,832 (25%)

Electricity billing bands in Niger State

Loading band economics…

What a delivered unit costs, by DisCo

Grid tariff plus the generator running that fills the gap, blended across every building the DisCo serves. Ranked most expensive first — the higher the all-in rate, the stronger the case for solar.

Loading the league table…

Ikeja and Eko are reported together as Lagos. Rates are modelled blends of billed grid energy and generator running, not published tariffs.

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Niger State.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Where the opportunity sits

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	1,330,750	49,125	₦124bn	₦116bn	7%	14.9 yr
D	772,409	36,357	₦91.4bn	₦87.6bn	9%	13.1 yr
B	380,154	35,577	₦82.2bn	₦81.4bn	23%	4.6 yr
C	280,313	39,273	₦96.8bn	₦95.7bn	21%	4.9 yr
A	115,843	18,577	₦25.7bn	₦25.2bn	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	2,800,362	138,691	₦281bn	₦270bn	9%	9.6 yr
Commercial Retail	31,605	13,132	₦3.22bn	₦3.22bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial General	27,726	12,737	₦51.3bn	₦51.1bn	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	11,071	7,798	₦76.4bn	₦74bn	55%	1.9 yr
Worship	7,618	6,027	₦3.43bn	₦3.43bn	59%	1.9 yr
Industrial	735	421	₦3.06bn	₦3.02bn	49%	2.1 yr
Hospitality	238	71	₦1.12bn	₦1.06bn	35%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	59	17	₦68.6m	₦68.6m	37%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	31	9	₦62.8m	₦62.8m	35%	2.9 yr
Productive Use	20	4	₦9.51m	₦9.51m	35%	3.1 yr
Automotive	4	2	₦9m	₦9m	31%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	1,378,669	46,106	₦9.03bn	₦8.88bn	5%	16.9 yr
30 50m2	570,097	29,172	₦13.8bn	₦13.3bn	11%	9.1 yr
50 100m2	550,519	41,454	₦49.3bn	₦48.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
100 250m2	328,145	48,310	₦145bn	₦139bn	27%	3.9 yr
250 1000m2	50,360	13,113	₦131bn	₦127bn	29%	3.9 yr
Over 1000m2	1,679	754	₦71.8bn	₦69.9bn	33%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	1,318,293	43,675	₦146bn	₦136bn	5%	15.9 yr
Urban Centre	508,890	59,557	₦109bn	₦108bn	23%	4.4 yr
Rural	477,310	29,187	₦50bn	₦48.5bn	9%	9.6 yr
Urban	291,306	28,716	₦79.6bn	₦78bn	17%	6.1 yr
Dense Urban	283,670	17,774	₦36.1bn	₦35.7bn	17%	6.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	1,475,045	34,941	₦7.14bn	₦7.14bn	5%	16.1 yr
Residential Small	572,049	47,747	₦58bn	₦56bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Formal	305,583	11,677	₦11.6bn	₦11.6bn	17%	5.6 yr
Residential	223,359	34,204	₦193bn	₦184bn	27%	3.9 yr
Residential Informal	204,550	8,450	₦10bn	₦9.97bn	21%	4.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	31,606	13,131	₦3.21bn	₦3.21bn	35%	3.1 yr
Apartment	13,603	1,206	₦976m	₦976m	27%	3.9 yr
Commercial	11,134	4,291	₦19.9bn	₦19.8bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	8,741	3,717	₦18.3bn	₦18.2bn	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	8,362	6,250	₦59.8bn	₦59.2bn	55%	1.9 yr
Duplex	6,132	464	₦403m	₦403m	27%	3.9 yr
Educational Facility	3,893	2,883	₦5.48bn	₦5.48bn	79%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	2,874,825	178,251	₦415bn	₦402bn
Industrial	1,775	432	₦3.44bn	₦3.31bn
Farmland	1,662	51	₦496m	₦496m
Farmyard	974	15	₦21.3m	₦21.3m
Commercial	228	160	₦753m	₦753m
Retail	5	0	₦43.7k	₦43.7k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	2,848,169	162,841	₦302bn	₦291bn	9%	9.6 yr
SME High	19,841	7,987	₦38.6bn	₦38.4bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	11,459	8,081	₦79bn	₦76.6bn	55%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	1,470,422	35,554	₦7.13bn	₦7.13bn
2.0	433,795	42,086	₦66bn	₦62.3bn
4.0	352,308	18,698	₦45bn	₦44.7bn
3.0	349,312	55,718	₦259bn	₦250bn
1.0	264,243	24,455	₦17.1bn	₦16.5bn
5.0	8,227	1,883	₦14bn	₦13.9bn
6.0	1,162	515	₦11.6bn	₦11.5bn