Niger State

Rooftop solar in Wushishi, Niger: what the roofs are worth

Wushishi has 63,268 buildings with a viable rooftop and 498 MWp of roof capacity. 8% run a generator, and together they spend ₦9.6bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

63,268

Usable roof area

2.25 km²

498 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦9.6bn/yr

8.97 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

9.9 yr

Median IRR 9% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Wushishi

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦9.6bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦9.41bn

Lifetime cash saved₦506bn

NPV₦75.5bn

Median IRR9%

Median payback9.9 yr

Unlocked energy8.94 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity47.6 MWp

Capex₦50.5bn

Year-one energy value₦46.7bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.2tn

NPV₦374bn

Median IRR95%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Wushishi's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 47.6 MWp
Capital cost: ₦50.5bn
Year 1 savings: ₦46.7bn/yr
NPV: ₦374bn
Median IRR: 95%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Wushishi pays back quickly

Of the 61,895 buildings in Wushishi with a modelled payback, 27.7% pay back inside five years and 8.3% inside three.

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How much of Wushishi's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Wushishi consume 16.4 GWh/yr but want 25.3 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Wushishi

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Wushishi actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 61,895 buildings with a modelled result out of 63,268 in Wushishi. 23,761 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years5,126 (8%)

Under 5 years17,123 (28%)

Under 7 years23,766 (38%)

Under 10 years31,292 (51%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%28,932 (46%)

Above 15%23,761 (38%)

Above 20%18,921 (30%)

Above 25%14,232 (22%)

CO₂ avoided

17.7 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

4.43 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

8.94 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

127k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Wushishi.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Wushishi

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	32,742	2,329	₦3.58bn	₦3.4bn	7%	14.1 yr
D	17,078	923	₦3.24bn	₦3.24bn	7%	13.9 yr
C	13,448	1,849	₦2.78bn	₦2.78bn	21%	4.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	62,155	4,118	₦6.24bn	₦6.06bn	9%	12.9 yr
Anchor	300	244	₦2.15bn	₦2.14bn	69%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	276	234	₦749m	₦749m	57%	1.9 yr
Worship	276	251	₦349m	₦349m	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	247	244	₦62.3m	₦62.3m	57%	1.9 yr
Industrial	12	9	₦28.6m	₦28.6m	69%	1.4 yr
Hospitality	1	0	₦153k	₦153k	35%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	1	1	₦23.2m	₦23.2m	65%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	30,979	1,409	₦249m	₦249m	5%	16.9 yr
30 50m2	13,797	1,093	₦433m	₦433m	11%	9.4 yr
50 100m2	12,469	1,348	₦1.39bn	₦1.35bn	25%	4.4 yr
100 250m2	5,303	984	₦2.77bn	₦2.63bn	27%	3.9 yr
250 1000m2	679	239	₦2.53bn	₦2.52bn	29%	3.9 yr
Over 1000m2	41	28	₦2.23bn	₦2.23bn	67%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	37,447	2,181	₦4.44bn	₦4.33bn	7%	14.6 yr
Dense Urban	12,321	1,559	₦2.27bn	₦2.27bn	19%	5.1 yr
Rural	10,484	940	₦2.25bn	₦2.17bn	9%	13.1 yr
Urban	3,016	421	₦645m	₦645m	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	34,917	1,282	₦207m	₦207m	5%	16.1 yr
Residential Small	13,181	1,893	₦1.64bn	₦1.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Formal	8,081	1	₦132m	₦132m	17%	5.9 yr
Residential	4,769	942	₦4.23bn	₦4.09bn	27%	3.9 yr
Residential Informal	1,038	0	₦23.7m	₦23.7m	21%	5.1 yr
Institutional	263	225	₦2.25bn	₦2.25bn	57%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	247	244	₦62.3m	₦62.3m	57%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	109	93	₦174m	₦174m	81%	1.4 yr
Worship Center	97	89	₦35.1m	₦35.1m	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	96	90	₦283m	₦283m	59%	1.9 yr
Apartment	89	0	₦1.93m	₦1.93m	27%	4.1 yr
Place Of Worship	85	77	₦10.7m	₦10.7m	63%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	63,228	5,097	₦9.6bn	₦9.41bn
Farmyard	31	0	₦1.16m	₦1.16m
Farmland	4	4	₦598k	₦598k
Industrial	3	0	₦7.11k	₦7.11k
Commercial	2	0	₦257k	₦257k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	62,856	4,754	₦7.09bn	₦6.91bn	9%	9.9 yr
Enterprise	310	252	₦2.18bn	₦2.17bn	69%	1.6 yr
SME High	102	95	₦329m	₦329m	59%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	34,956	1,318	₦209m	₦209m
2.0	8,433	1,369	₦1.64bn	₦1.52bn
4.0	7,332	29	₦443m	₦443m
3.0	6,823	1,535	₦6.63bn	₦6.61bn
1.0	5,723	849	₦632m	₦594m
5.0	1	1	₦46.8m	₦46.8m