Niger State

Rooftop solar in Magama, Niger: what the roofs are worth

Magama has 172,785 buildings with a viable rooftop and 865 MWp of roof capacity. 3% run a generator, and together they spend ₦9.73bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

172,785

Usable roof area

3.94 km²

865 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦9.73bn/yr

8.14 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

15.1 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Magama

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦9.73bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦8.9bn

Lifetime cash saved₦489bn

NPV₦67.3bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback15.1 yr

Unlocked energy10.7 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity77.9 MWp

Capex₦84.4bn

Year-one energy value₦83.5bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.96tn

NPV₦678bn

Median IRR99%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Magama's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 77.9 MWp
Capital cost: ₦84.4bn
Year 1 savings: ₦83.5bn/yr
NPV: ₦678bn
Median IRR: 99%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Magama pays back quickly

Of the 170,931 buildings in Magama with a modelled payback, 16.1% pay back inside five years and 3.0% inside three.

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How much of Magama's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Magama consume 19.8 GWh/yr but want 30.4 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Magama

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Magama actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 170,931 buildings with a modelled result out of 172,785 in Magama. 42,454 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years5,199 (3%)

Under 5 years27,513 (16%)

Under 7 years42,523 (25%)

Under 10 years60,481 (35%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%54,592 (32%)

Above 15%42,454 (25%)

Above 20%31,279 (18%)

Above 25%21,278 (12%)

CO₂ avoided

18.3 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

3.75 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

10.7 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

278k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Magama.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Magama

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	114,173	2,246	₦3.44bn	₦3.38bn	7%	15.6 yr
D	54,214	2,256	₦3.37bn	₦2.98bn	7%	14.1 yr
B	3,301	390	₦1.73bn	₦1.7bn	21%	5.1 yr
C	1,027	65	₦138m	₦138m	19%	5.6 yr
A	70	55	₦1.05bn	₦696m	51%	2.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	168,996	2,511	₦6.48bn	₦5.95bn	7%	15.1 yr
Commercial Retail	2,116	1,239	₦192m	₦192m	39%	2.6 yr
Commercial General	1,035	758	₦1.03bn	₦1.03bn	41%	2.6 yr
Anchor	326	265	₦1.94bn	₦1.64bn	57%	1.9 yr
Worship	256	208	₦49.3m	₦49.3m	57%	1.9 yr
Industrial	55	30	₦28.6m	₦28.6m	43%	2.6 yr
Hospitality	1	1	₦2.03m	₦2.03m	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	110,389	1,903	₦407m	₦399m	5%	17.1 yr
30 50m2	35,040	1,099	₦532m	₦532m	11%	9.4 yr
50 100m2	21,233	1,197	₦1.39bn	₦1.35bn	25%	4.6 yr
100 250m2	5,369	622	₦2.09bn	₦2bn	29%	3.9 yr
250 1000m2	707	170	₦3.87bn	₦3.18bn	29%	3.6 yr
Over 1000m2	47	21	₦1.43bn	₦1.43bn	31%	3.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	80,505	715	₦3.89bn	₦3.7bn	5%	17.4 yr
Rural	42,171	931	₦783m	₦783m	7%	13.9 yr
Dense Urban	30,398	1,898	₦1.75bn	₦1.75bn	17%	6.4 yr
Urban	19,711	1,468	₦3.31bn	₦2.66bn	9%	12.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	117,223	1,277	₦345m	₦345m	5%	16.6 yr
Residential Small	29,077	811	₦1.46bn	₦1.41bn	23%	4.9 yr
Residential	13,550	423	₦4.59bn	₦4.11bn	13%	7.4 yr
Residential Formal	7,820	0	₦63.6m	₦63.6m	17%	6.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	2,116	1,239	₦192m	₦192m	39%	2.6 yr
Residential Informal	1,321	0	₦23.4m	₦23.4m	23%	4.9 yr
Commercial	571	350	₦243m	₦243m	41%	2.6 yr
Institutional	273	225	₦1.15bn	₦1.15bn	55%	1.9 yr
Market	147	146	₦13.6m	₦13.6m	41%	2.6 yr
Educational Facility	111	91	₦151m	₦151m	81%	1.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	109	103	₦522m	₦522m	61%	1.6 yr
Worship Center	89	71	₦16.2m	₦16.2m	61%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	172,560	4,987	₦9.68bn	₦8.85bn
Farmland	114	0	₦1.29m	₦1.29m
Farmyard	80	0	₦669k	₦669k
Commercial	29	25	₦44.1m	₦44.1m
Industrial	2	0	₦5.87k	₦5.87k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	171,746	4,271	₦7bn	₦6.47bn	7%	15.1 yr
SME High	680	453	₦765m	₦765m	43%	2.6 yr
Enterprise	359	288	₦1.97bn	₦1.67bn	57%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	117,288	1,319	₦347m	₦347m
2.0	21,518	1,332	₦1.53bn	₦1.45bn
1.0	16,327	969	₦539m	₦534m
3.0	11,142	1,170	₦6.66bn	₦5.92bn
4.0	6,262	69	₦290m	₦290m
5.0	239	147	₦282m	₦282m
6.0	9	6	₦75.7m	₦75.7m