Niger State

Rooftop solar in Shiroro, Niger: what the roofs are worth

Shiroro has 136,109 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.08 GWp of roof capacity. 4% run a generator, and together they spend ₦13.4bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

136,109

Usable roof area

4.89 km²

1.08 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦13.4bn/yr

10.7 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

13.4 yr

Median IRR 9% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Shiroro

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦13.4bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦13.4bn

Lifetime cash saved₦734bn

NPV₦105bn

Median IRR9%

Median payback13.4 yr

Unlocked energy15 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity115 MWp

Capex₦125bn

Year-one energy value₦126bn

Lifetime energy value₦6tn

NPV₦1.03tn

Median IRR101%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Shiroro's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 115 MWp
Capital cost: ₦125bn
Year 1 savings: ₦126bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.03tn
Median IRR: 101%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Shiroro pays back quickly

Of the 133,085 buildings in Shiroro with a modelled payback, 28.2% pay back inside five years and 3.9% inside three.

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How much of Shiroro's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Shiroro consume 25.8 GWh/yr but want 40.8 GWh/yr. The 37% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Shiroro

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Shiroro actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 133,085 buildings with a modelled result out of 136,109 in Shiroro. 48,399 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years5,158 (4%)

Under 5 years37,554 (28%)

Under 7 years48,431 (36%)

Under 10 years62,151 (47%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%57,054 (42%)

Above 15%48,399 (36%)

Above 20%40,632 (30%)

Above 25%32,123 (24%)

CO₂ avoided

27.2 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

6.02 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

15 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

449k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Shiroro.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Shiroro

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	73,781	2,196	₦4.84bn	₦4.83bn	7%	14.4 yr
D	46,434	1,874	₦3.7bn	₦3.7bn	9%	12.9 yr
C	13,222	537	₦3.05bn	₦3.04bn	17%	5.9 yr
B	2,672	467	₦1.81bn	₦1.81bn	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	134,461	3,883	₦10.4bn	₦10.4bn	9%	13.4 yr
Anchor	640	448	₦2.29bn	₦2.29bn	55%	1.9 yr
Worship	544	420	₦140m	₦140m	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	401	285	₦526m	₦526m	57%	1.9 yr
Industrial	59	38	₦51.3m	₦51.3m	63%	1.6 yr
Mall Retail	2	0	₦299k	₦299k	35%	2.9 yr
Hospitality	1	0	₦16.5k	₦16.5k	31%	3.6 yr
Productive Use	1	0	₦434k	₦434k	39%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	62,562	1,402	₦278m	₦278m	5%	17.1 yr
30 50m2	33,478	1,031	₦535m	₦535m	9%	12.9 yr
50 100m2	26,331	1,163	₦1.82bn	₦1.82bn	27%	4.1 yr
100 250m2	12,056	1,027	₦3.91bn	₦3.91bn	29%	3.9 yr
250 1000m2	1,633	430	₦5.26bn	₦5.25bn	29%	3.6 yr
Over 1000m2	49	21	₦1.58bn	₦1.58bn	29%	3.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	86,770	2,448	₦5.72bn	₦5.71bn	7%	14.9 yr
Rural	17,687	1,025	₦3.46bn	₦3.45bn	9%	9.6 yr
Dense Urban	17,039	755	₦1.26bn	₦1.26bn	17%	5.9 yr
Urban	14,613	846	₦2.95bn	₦2.95bn	17%	5.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	78,315	1,558	₦317m	₦317m	5%	15.9 yr
Residential Small	29,271	1,236	₦2.05bn	₦2.05bn	27%	3.9 yr
Residential Formal	15,101	0	₦166m	₦166m	15%	6.6 yr
Residential	11,186	1,088	₦7.83bn	₦7.82bn	29%	3.9 yr
Institutional	523	383	₦1.73bn	₦1.73bn	55%	1.9 yr
Apartment	347	0	₦5.95m	₦5.95m	25%	4.4 yr
Duplex	232	0	₦3.65m	₦3.65m	23%	4.6 yr
Educational Facility	212	162	₦249m	₦249m	81%	1.4 yr
Worship Center	195	148	₦32m	₦32m	61%	1.9 yr
Place Of Worship	169	133	₦17.4m	₦17.4m	59%	1.9 yr
Healthcare Facility	157	107	₦510m	₦510m	51%	2.1 yr
Clinic	123	76	₦190m	₦190m	51%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	135,875	5,058	₦13.2bn	₦13.2bn
Farmyard	167	0	₦1.7m	₦1.7m
Industrial	36	6	₦199m	₦198m
Commercial	17	10	₦9.73m	₦9.73m
Farmland	14	0	₦270k	₦270k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	135,430	4,600	₦11.1bn	₦11.1bn	9%	13.4 yr
Enterprise	669	469	₦2.28bn	₦2.28bn	55%	1.9 yr
SME High	10	5	₦39.2m	₦39.2m	39%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	78,423	1,631	₦322m	₦322m
2.0	16,634	1,245	₦2.29bn	₦2.28bn
3.0	13,922	1,486	₦9.65bn	₦9.64bn
4.0	13,723	5	₦312m	₦312m
1.0	13,405	707	₦819m	₦819m
5.0	2	0	₦1.37m	₦1.37m