Niger State

Rooftop solar in Rafi, Niger: what the roofs are worth

Rafi has 137,827 buildings with a viable rooftop and 947 MWp of roof capacity. 5% run a generator, and together they spend ₦17.4bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

137,827

Usable roof area

4.3 km²

947 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦17.4bn/yr

16.7 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

13.9 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Rafi

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦17.4bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦16.9bn

Lifetime cash saved₦909bn

NPV₦131bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback13.9 yr

Unlocked energy17.9 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity122 MWp

Capex₦125bn

Year-one energy value₦114bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.41tn

NPV₦917bn

Median IRR95%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Rafi's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 122 MWp
Capital cost: ₦125bn
Year 1 savings: ₦114bn/yr
NPV: ₦917bn
Median IRR: 95%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Rafi pays back quickly

Of the 134,621 buildings in Rafi with a modelled payback, 25.9% pay back inside five years and 5.5% inside three.

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How much of Rafi's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Rafi consume 38.7 GWh/yr but want 56.6 GWh/yr. The 32% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Rafi

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Rafi actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 134,621 buildings with a modelled result out of 137,827 in Rafi. 46,618 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years7,337 (5%)

Under 5 years34,815 (26%)

Under 7 years46,644 (35%)

Under 10 years60,395 (45%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%56,216 (41%)

Above 15%46,618 (34%)

Above 20%37,499 (27%)

Above 25%31,129 (23%)

CO₂ avoided

32.5 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

6.13 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

17.9 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

349k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Rafi.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Rafi

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	71,059	3,608	₦5.28bn	₦4.97bn	7%	15.4 yr
D	36,383	1,473	₦3.2bn	₦3.16bn	7%	14.6 yr
C	29,994	1,484	₦4.94bn	₦4.77bn	17%	5.9 yr
B	313	26	₦209m	₦209m	29%	3.9 yr
A	78	49	₦3.78bn	₦3.78bn	53%	2.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	129,041	2,300	₦6.3bn	₦6.03bn	7%	14.4 yr
Commercial Retail	4,483	2,283	₦575m	₦575m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial General	3,364	1,305	₦3.8bn	₦3.8bn	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	479	357	₦5.9bn	₦5.7bn	55%	1.9 yr
Worship	421	364	₦134m	₦134m	59%	1.9 yr
Industrial	37	31	₦696m	₦653m	75%	1.4 yr
Filling Station	2	0	₦939k	₦939k	35%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	72,231	2,011	₦430m	₦428m	5%	17.4 yr
30 50m2	31,145	1,529	₦882m	₦765m	9%	9.6 yr
50 100m2	24,958	1,788	₦2.19bn	₦2.19bn	27%	3.9 yr
100 250m2	8,256	1,021	₦3.81bn	₦3.64bn	29%	3.9 yr
250 1000m2	1,167	269	₦4.94bn	₦4.76bn	29%	3.9 yr
Over 1000m2	70	22	₦5.15bn	₦5.1bn	29%	3.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	86,276	1,524	₦8.97bn	₦8.65bn	5%	16.1 yr
Dense Urban	28,241	1,488	₦4bn	₦3.82bn	19%	5.6 yr
Rural	15,569	2,627	₦1.96bn	₦1.96bn	13%	8.4 yr
Urban	7,741	1,001	₦2.48bn	₦2.46bn	19%	5.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	84,041	967	₦279m	₦279m	5%	16.4 yr
Residential Small	24,446	848	₦1.76bn	₦1.64bn	27%	3.9 yr
Residential Formal	8,406	0	₦81.1m	₦81.1m	11%	7.9 yr
Residential	6,299	485	₦4.12bn	₦3.97bn	29%	3.9 yr
Residential Informal	5,764	0	₦59.8m	₦59.3m	11%	8.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	4,483	2,283	₦575m	₦575m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial	1,939	587	₦2.02bn	₦2.02bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	1,150	528	₦1.31bn	₦1.31bn	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	397	315	₦5.05bn	₦5.05bn	55%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	158	124	₦208m	₦208m	79%	1.4 yr
Worship Center	140	120	₦45.9m	₦45.9m	63%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	139	120	₦15.8m	₦15.8m	63%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	137,633	6,626	₦17.2bn	₦16.8bn
Farmyard	126	5	₦1.86m	₦1.86m
Farmland	48	0	₦875k	₦875k
Industrial	20	9	₦184m	₦56.7m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	134,242	5,151	₦7.48bn	₦7.22bn	7%	13.9 yr
SME High	3,081	1,109	₦3.33bn	₦3.33bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	504	380	₦6.59bn	₦6.34bn	55%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	83,135	1,028	₦278m	₦278m
2.0	15,762	1,093	₦1.95bn	₦1.78bn
1.0	14,584	2,677	₦1.22bn	₦1.21bn
3.0	13,577	1,621	₦10.4bn	₦10.2bn
4.0	9,392	156	₦1.73bn	₦1.64bn
5.0	1,282	55	₦1.11bn	₦1.07bn
6.0	95	10	₦725m	₦725m