Niger State

Rooftop solar in Paikoro, Niger: what the roofs are worth

Paikoro has 124,178 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.11 GWp of roof capacity. 5% run a generator, and together they spend ₦11.8bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

124,178

Usable roof area

5.01 km²

1.11 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦11.8bn/yr

11 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

9.4 yr

Median IRR 9% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Paikoro

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦11.8bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦11.8bn

Lifetime cash saved₦644bn

NPV₦92.4bn

Median IRR9%

Median payback9.4 yr

Unlocked energy13.1 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity92 MWp

Capex₦98.3bn

Year-one energy value₦93.4bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.44tn

NPV₦755bn

Median IRR97%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Paikoro's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 92 MWp
Capital cost: ₦98.3bn
Year 1 savings: ₦93.4bn/yr
NPV: ₦755bn
Median IRR: 97%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Paikoro pays back quickly

Of the 119,420 buildings in Paikoro with a modelled payback, 30.3% pay back inside five years and 5.6% inside three.

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How much of Paikoro's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Paikoro consume 23.2 GWh/yr but want 36.3 GWh/yr. The 36% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Paikoro

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Paikoro actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 119,420 buildings with a modelled result out of 124,178 in Paikoro. 50,016 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years6,698 (6%)

Under 5 years36,197 (30%)

Under 7 years50,031 (42%)

Under 10 years65,469 (55%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%60,780 (49%)

Above 15%50,016 (40%)

Above 20%39,986 (32%)

Above 25%29,313 (24%)

CO₂ avoided

23.1 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

4.99 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

13.1 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

285k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Paikoro.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Paikoro

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	62,887	2,642	₦5.86bn	₦5.85bn	9%	13.6 yr
D	43,118	3,307	₦4.57bn	₦4.56bn	11%	7.9 yr
C	17,942	693	₦1.17bn	₦1.17bn	17%	6.1 yr
B	231	17	₦228m	₦228m	19%	5.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	122,249	5,125	₦6.71bn	₦6.7bn	9%	9.4 yr
Anchor	650	472	₦4.2bn	₦4.19bn	55%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	514	386	₦671m	₦671m	55%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	390	361	₦72.8m	₦72.8m	67%	1.6 yr
Worship	328	290	₦132m	₦132m	61%	1.6 yr
Industrial	43	24	₦43.2m	₦43.2m	47%	2.1 yr
Filling Station	2	0	₦1.26m	₦1.26m	35%	2.9 yr
Hospitality	2	1	₦1.26m	₦1.26m	35%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	55,987	1,931	₦310m	₦310m	5%	16.6 yr
50 100m2	27,889	1,644	₦1.49bn	₦1.49bn	25%	4.6 yr
30 50m2	24,198	1,160	₦408m	₦408m	11%	9.4 yr
100 250m2	14,354	1,512	₦3.02bn	₦3bn	27%	3.9 yr
250 1000m2	1,627	364	₦2.69bn	₦2.69bn	29%	3.9 yr
Over 1000m2	123	48	₦3.92bn	₦3.92bn	29%	3.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	72,296	2,448	₦6.75bn	₦6.73bn	7%	14.1 yr
Dense Urban	18,635	1,221	₦1.18bn	₦1.18bn	17%	5.9 yr
Rural	15,901	1,259	₦1.31bn	₦1.3bn	13%	8.1 yr
Urban	15,413	1,607	₦2.4bn	₦2.4bn	17%	6.1 yr
Urban Centre	1,933	124	₦205m	₦205m	21%	5.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	62,994	1,774	₦299m	₦299m	7%	15.6 yr
Residential Small	30,827	1,718	₦1.56bn	₦1.56bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Formal	11,972	238	₦150m	₦150m	11%	7.9 yr
Residential	11,849	1,378	₦4.63bn	₦4.62bn	27%	3.9 yr
Residential Informal	4,179	0	₦64.3m	₦64.3m	19%	5.4 yr
Institutional	460	357	₦3.85bn	₦3.85bn	57%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	390	361	₦72.8m	₦72.8m	67%	1.6 yr
Apartment	274	14	₦4.57m	₦4.57m	21%	4.9 yr
Educational Facility	220	168	₦260m	₦260m	81%	1.4 yr
School	158	109	₦109m	₦109m	77%	1.4 yr
Duplex	152	3	₦2.42m	₦2.42m	23%	4.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	128	117	₦156m	₦156m	67%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	124,017	6,657	₦11.8bn	₦11.8bn
Industrial	87	1	₦36.4m	₦36.4m
Farmland	48	0	₦674k	₦674k
Farmyard	26	1	₦437k	₦437k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	123,357	6,039	₦7.42bn	₦7.4bn	9%	9.4 yr
Enterprise	666	484	₦4.22bn	₦4.21bn	55%	1.9 yr
SME High	155	136	₦197m	₦197m	67%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	63,014	1,792	₦301m	₦301m
3.0	20,285	2,078	₦8.91bn	₦8.89bn
2.0	20,154	1,518	₦1.73bn	₦1.73bn
4.0	11,626	231	₦391m	₦391m
1.0	9,090	1,040	₦478m	₦478m
5.0	9	0	₦19.5m	₦19.5m