Niger State

Rooftop solar in Tafa, Niger: what the roofs are worth

Tafa has 122,211 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.96 GWp of roof capacity. 9% run a generator, and together they spend ₦25.2bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

122,211

Usable roof area

8.76 km²

1.96 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦25.2bn/yr

18 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

5.4 yr

Median IRR 19% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Tafa

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦25.2bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦25bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.41tn

NPV₦199bn

Median IRR19%

Median payback5.4 yr

Unlocked energy28.1 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity114 MWp

Capex₦113bn

Year-one energy value₦78.8bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.7tn

NPV₦600bn

Median IRR65%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Tafa's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 114 MWp
Capital cost: ₦113bn
Year 1 savings: ₦78.8bn/yr
NPV: ₦600bn
Median IRR: 65%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Tafa pays back quickly

Of the 114,060 buildings in Tafa with a modelled payback, 44.8% pay back inside five years and 9.2% inside three.

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How much of Tafa's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Tafa consume 57 GWh/yr but want 85.1 GWh/yr. The 33% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Tafa

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Tafa actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 114,060 buildings with a modelled result out of 122,211 in Tafa. 76,597 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years10,525 (9%)

Under 5 years51,091 (45%)

Under 7 years76,630 (67%)

Under 10 years94,393 (83%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%91,901 (75%)

Above 15%76,597 (63%)

Above 20%57,318 (47%)

Above 25%40,881 (33%)

CO₂ avoided

52.3 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

9.93 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

28.1 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

181k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Tafa.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Tafa

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	62,892	3,757	₦8.68bn	₦8.61bn	19%	5.4 yr
A	31,667	2,165	₦3.19bn	₦3.19bn	17%	5.9 yr
C	18,066	2,977	₦7.89bn	₦7.74bn	23%	4.6 yr
D	5,057	1,102	₦3.57bn	₦3.57bn	13%	6.6 yr
E	4,529	439	₦1.91bn	₦1.91bn	11%	8.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	117,800	9,327	₦15.8bn	₦15.6bn	19%	5.6 yr
Commercial General	1,950	486	₦3.86bn	₦3.86bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	1,588	352	₦138m	₦138m	35%	3.1 yr
Anchor	515	154	₦5.17bn	₦5.09bn	43%	2.4 yr
Worship	295	108	₦228m	₦228m	35%	3.1 yr
Industrial	41	11	₦42.1m	₦41.6m	39%	2.9 yr
Hospitality	10	0	₦30m	₦30m	35%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	8	2	₦3.8m	₦3.8m	35%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	2	0	₦130k	₦130k	35%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	2	0	₦2.91m	₦2.91m	39%	2.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	35,913	3,282	₦7.03bn	₦7bn	27%	4.1 yr
50 100m2	32,692	2,462	₦1.89bn	₦1.89bn	19%	5.9 yr
Under 30m2	31,871	2,477	₦438m	₦435m	7%	8.9 yr
30 50m2	16,880	1,344	₦473m	₦465m	13%	7.1 yr
250 1000m2	4,687	815	₦9.16bn	₦9.05bn	29%	3.9 yr
Over 1000m2	168	60	₦6.24bn	₦6.17bn	29%	3.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	91,543	5,486	₦12.4bn	₦12.2bn	19%	5.4 yr
Dense Urban	10,517	2,208	₦4.85bn	₦4.84bn	23%	4.4 yr
Urban	10,248	1,538	₦3.89bn	₦3.89bn	19%	5.4 yr
Unclassified	9,206	1,196	₦4.09bn	₦4.05bn	19%	5.4 yr
Rural	697	12	₦10.9m	₦10.9m	9%	8.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	38,943	661	₦671m	₦663m	15%	6.4 yr
Residential Informal	29,837	1,053	₦850m	₦850m	19%	5.4 yr
Residential Small	17,775	3,294	₦2.34bn	₦2.34bn	23%	4.4 yr
Shed	17,229	2,096	₦351m	₦351m	17%	6.4 yr
Residential	9,573	2,076	₦11.4bn	₦11.3bn	27%	3.9 yr
Apartment	3,356	117	₦81.5m	₦81.5m	23%	4.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,587	351	₦137m	₦137m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial	1,172	377	₦3.08bn	₦3.08bn	35%	2.9 yr
Duplex	1,087	30	₦21.3m	₦21.3m	23%	4.6 yr
Institutional	379	126	₦4.85bn	₦4.79bn	31%	3.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	321	1	₦295m	₦295m	35%	3.1 yr
Unknown	187	33	₦124m	₦124m	31%	3.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	122,177	10,431	₦25.1bn	₦24.9bn
Industrial	23	8	₦116m	₦116m
Farmland	11	1	₦40.1m	₦40.1m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	120,255	9,906	₦16.7bn	₦16.6bn	19%	5.4 yr
SME High	1,434	379	₦3.35bn	₦3.35bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	522	155	₦5.17bn	₦5.1bn	43%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	53,851	1,249	₦5.15bn	₦5.13bn
3.0	29,098	4,364	₦15.2bn	₦15bn
2.0	17,617	2,057	₦1.26bn	₦1.25bn
0.0	16,095	2,085	₦341m	₦341m
1.0	4,463	353	₦134m	₦134m
5.0	874	209	₦823m	₦823m
6.0	213	123	₦2.33bn	₦2.33bn