Niger State

Rooftop solar in Bida, Niger: what the roofs are worth

Bida has 125,233 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.91 GWp of roof capacity. 14% run a generator, and together they spend ₦52.6bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

125,233

Usable roof area

8.53 km²

1.91 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦52.6bn/yr

43.3 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 27% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Bida

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦52.6bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦52.1bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.83tn

NPV₦413bn

Median IRR27%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy43.5 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity197 MWp

Capex₦204bn

Year-one energy value₦164bn

Lifetime energy value₦7.77tn

NPV₦1.29tn

Median IRR77%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Bida's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 197 MWp
Capital cost: ₦204bn
Year 1 savings: ₦164bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.29tn
Median IRR: 77%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Bida pays back quickly

Of the 124,510 buildings in Bida with a modelled payback, 63.7% pay back inside five years and 14.2% inside three.

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How much of Bida's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Bida consume 98.5 GWh/yr but want 142 GWh/yr. The 31% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Bida

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Bida actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 124,510 buildings with a modelled result out of 125,233 in Bida. 95,157 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years17,664 (14%)

Under 5 years79,339 (64%)

Under 7 years95,157 (76%)

Under 10 years105,661 (85%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%102,744 (82%)

Above 15%95,157 (76%)

Above 20%84,362 (67%)

Above 25%69,331 (55%)

CO₂ avoided

99 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

23.9 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

43.5 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

415k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Bida.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Bida

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	67,070	8,786	₦23.2bn	₦23.1bn	27%	3.9 yr
E	22,402	1,126	₦3.65bn	₦3.46bn	11%	9.4 yr
D	20,916	1,871	₦6.78bn	₦6.61bn	15%	7.1 yr
C	14,845	5,772	₦18.9bn	₦18.9bn	29%	3.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	121,476	15,260	₦38.6bn	₦38.3bn	27%	4.1 yr
Commercial General	1,656	936	₦3.97bn	₦3.97bn	39%	2.9 yr
Commercial Retail	1,083	650	₦149m	₦149m	39%	2.6 yr
Anchor	701	480	₦9.63bn	₦9.44bn	53%	1.9 yr
Worship	255	197	₦190m	₦190m	55%	1.9 yr
Industrial	33	16	₦53.3m	₦53.3m	39%	2.6 yr
Hospitality	20	14	₦60.7m	₦60.7m	39%	2.4 yr
Filling Station	4	0	₦2.21m	₦2.21m	35%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	3	2	₦2.83m	₦2.83m	37%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	2	0	₦170k	₦170k	35%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	34,487	4,128	₦714m	₦713m	13%	7.6 yr
100 250m2	30,690	6,140	₦20.2bn	₦20bn	27%	3.9 yr
50 100m2	30,274	3,469	₦3.89bn	₦3.88bn	27%	4.1 yr
30 50m2	23,996	2,162	₦904m	₦904m	19%	5.4 yr
250 1000m2	5,664	1,582	₦17.1bn	₦17bn	29%	3.9 yr
Over 1000m2	122	74	₦9.78bn	₦9.61bn	55%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	72,254	11,249	₦27.6bn	₦27.6bn	27%	3.9 yr
Unclassified	23,727	1,726	₦5.57bn	₦5.31bn	11%	9.1 yr
Urban	17,884	3,485	₦16.8bn	₦16.6bn	23%	4.9 yr
Rural	8,242	814	₦1.78bn	₦1.76bn	15%	6.6 yr
Dense Urban	3,126	281	₦855m	₦855m	17%	6.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	28,621	3,121	₦498m	₦498m	9%	13.1 yr
Residential Formal	27,535	1,919	₦3.16bn	₦3.16bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Informal	25,851	1,023	₦2.34bn	₦2.31bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Small	24,209	4,863	₦5.2bn	₦5.19bn	27%	3.9 yr
Residential	12,766	4,185	₦27.1bn	₦26.8bn	29%	3.9 yr
Apartment	1,375	88	₦156m	₦156m	27%	3.9 yr
Duplex	1,119	61	₦135m	₦135m	27%	3.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,084	650	₦150m	₦150m	39%	2.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	694	343	₦1.32bn	₦1.32bn	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	440	310	₦8bn	₦8bn	49%	2.1 yr
Commercial	371	244	₦1.27bn	₦1.27bn	49%	2.1 yr
Educational Facility	260	186	₦534m	₦534m	67%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	125,152	17,513	₦52.4bn	₦52bn
Industrial	48	27	₦128m	₦128m
Farmland	19	13	₦42.8m	₦42.8m
Commercial	8	0	₦83.2k	₦83.2k
Farmyard	6	2	₦1.45m	₦1.45m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	123,432	16,469	₦40.3bn	₦40.1bn	27%	4.1 yr
SME High	1,076	595	₦2.6bn	₦2.6bn	39%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	725	491	₦9.68bn	₦9.49bn	53%	2.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	36,149	2,430	₦7.31bn	₦7.22bn
3.0	31,549	7,595	₦39bn	₦38.7bn
0.0	28,078	3,130	₦493m	₦493m
2.0	22,627	3,264	₦4.18bn	₦4.08bn
1.0	6,469	983	₦513m	₦513m
5.0	320	133	₦765m	₦765m
6.0	41	20	₦345m	₦345m