Niger State

Rooftop solar in Rijau, Niger: what the roofs are worth

Rijau has 145,043 buildings with a viable rooftop and 688 MWp of roof capacity. 2% run a generator, and together they spend ₦7.94bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

145,043

Usable roof area

3.09 km²

688 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦7.94bn/yr

7.86 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

17.4 yr

Median IRR 5% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Rijau

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦7.94bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦7.79bn

Lifetime cash saved₦428bn

NPV₦59.2bn

Median IRR5%

Median payback17.4 yr

Unlocked energy9.13 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity64.1 MWp

Capex₦69.9bn

Year-one energy value₦69.8bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.31tn

NPV₦568bn

Median IRR95%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Rijau's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 64.1 MWp
Capital cost: ₦69.9bn
Year 1 savings: ₦69.8bn/yr
NPV: ₦568bn
Median IRR: 95%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Rijau pays back quickly

Of the 142,334 buildings in Rijau with a modelled payback, 14.0% pay back inside five years and 2.2% inside three.

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How much of Rijau's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Rijau consume 16.3 GWh/yr but want 25.4 GWh/yr. The 36% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Rijau

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Rijau actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 142,334 buildings with a modelled result out of 145,043 in Rijau. 28,826 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years3,197 (2%)

Under 5 years19,880 (14%)

Under 7 years28,881 (20%)

Under 10 years36,961 (26%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%34,591 (24%)

Above 15%28,826 (20%)

Above 20%22,030 (15%)

Above 25%16,685 (12%)

CO₂ avoided

15.2 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

3.04 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

9.13 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

255k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Rijau.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Rijau

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	88,974	1,435	₦4.81bn	₦4.66bn	3%	18.1 yr
D	44,505	716	₦1.7bn	₦1.7bn	5%	16.9 yr
C	11,564	1,000	₦1.43bn	₦1.43bn	19%	5.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	143,334	1,698	₦3.6bn	₦3.44bn	5%	17.4 yr
Commercial Retail	670	563	₦156m	₦156m	65%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	550	499	₦2.1bn	₦2.1bn	65%	1.6 yr
Anchor	329	269	₦2.04bn	₦2.04bn	65%	1.6 yr
Worship	151	118	₦46m	₦46m	55%	1.9 yr
Industrial	9	4	₦1.66m	₦1.66m	39%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	102,032	1,021	₦312m	₦312m	3%	19.1 yr
30 50m2	23,137	491	₦335m	₦335m	9%	13.1 yr
50 100m2	14,091	713	₦1.01bn	₦1.01bn	27%	4.1 yr
100 250m2	4,844	714	₦2.31bn	₦2.15bn	29%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	874	192	₦2.6bn	₦2.6bn	29%	3.6 yr
Over 1000m2	65	20	₦1.38bn	₦1.38bn	31%	3.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	92,852	456	₦2.96bn	₦2.8bn	3%	19.1 yr
Urban	21,540	1,466	₦3.2bn	₦3.2bn	11%	8.6 yr
Rural	17,976	485	₦682m	₦682m	5%	15.9 yr
Dense Urban	12,675	744	₦1.1bn	₦1.1bn	19%	5.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	112,999	523	₦256m	₦256m	3%	18.6 yr
Residential Small	18,043	767	₦998m	₦998m	27%	4.1 yr
Residential	5,467	408	₦2.28bn	₦2.12bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential Formal	4,038	0	₦39.2m	₦39.2m	13%	7.6 yr
Residential Informal	2,747	0	₦27.9m	₦27.9m	15%	6.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	670	563	₦156m	₦156m	65%	1.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	305	285	₦1.59bn	₦1.59bn	71%	1.4 yr
Institutional	224	186	₦1.68bn	₦1.68bn	55%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	119	105	₦194m	₦194m	81%	1.4 yr
Commercial	85	83	₦132m	₦132m	65%	1.6 yr
Healthcare Facility	72	51	₦320m	₦320m	51%	2.1 yr
School	67	59	₦74m	₦74m	81%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	145,016	3,151	₦7.94bn	₦7.79bn
Farmland	27	0	₦83.3k	₦83.3k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	144,319	2,513	₦4.18bn	₦4.02bn	5%	17.4 yr
SME High	386	365	₦1.72bn	₦1.72bn	69%	1.6 yr
Enterprise	338	273	₦2.04bn	₦2.04bn	63%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	113,022	537	₦256m	₦256m
2.0	11,739	599	₦1.2bn	₦1.05bn
1.0	9,180	830	₦563m	₦563m
3.0	7,569	1,084	₦4.44bn	₦4.44bn
4.0	3,519	92	₦1.03bn	₦1.03bn
5.0	14	9	₦453m	₦453m