Niger State

Rooftop solar in Mariga, Niger: what the roofs are worth

Mariga has 224,950 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.13 GWp of roof capacity. 2% run a generator, and together they spend ₦6.46bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

224,950

Usable roof area

5.15 km²

1.13 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦6.46bn/yr

4.64 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

15.1 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Mariga

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦6.46bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦6.42bn

Lifetime cash saved₦377bn

NPV₦45.8bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback15.1 yr

Unlocked energy11.7 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity102 MWp

Capex₦111bn

Year-one energy value₦114bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.41tn

NPV₦929bn

Median IRR99%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Mariga's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 102 MWp
Capital cost: ₦111bn
Year 1 savings: ₦114bn/yr
NPV: ₦929bn
Median IRR: 99%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Mariga pays back quickly

Of the 222,143 buildings in Mariga with a modelled payback, 15.7% pay back inside five years and 2.4% inside three.

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How much of Mariga's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Mariga consume 16.6 GWh/yr but want 28.4 GWh/yr. The 41% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Mariga

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Mariga actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 222,143 buildings with a modelled result out of 224,950 in Mariga. 53,061 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years5,381 (2%)

Under 5 years34,901 (16%)

Under 7 years53,187 (24%)

Under 10 years77,922 (35%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%70,114 (31%)

Above 15%53,061 (24%)

Above 20%39,405 (18%)

Above 25%28,309 (13%)

CO₂ avoided

15.4 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

2.12 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

11.7 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

404k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Mariga.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Mariga

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	138,247	2,367	₦3.49bn	₦3.48bn	7%	15.9 yr
D	76,867	1,961	₦2.61bn	₦2.58bn	7%	13.9 yr
C	9,836	870	₦363m	₦363m	13%	7.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	219,872	2,279	₦4.14bn	₦4.1bn	7%	15.1 yr
Commercial Retail	2,861	1,351	₦236m	₦236m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial General	1,150	661	₦848m	₦848m	43%	2.6 yr
Worship	673	574	₦167m	₦167m	59%	1.9 yr
Anchor	356	312	₦1.05bn	₦1.05bn	69%	1.6 yr
Industrial	37	21	₦15.7m	₦15.7m	61%	1.6 yr
Productive Use	1	0	₦571k	₦571k	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	143,409	1,990	₦494m	₦493m	5%	17.4 yr
30 50m2	45,265	1,251	₦650m	₦650m	11%	9.4 yr
50 100m2	29,057	1,186	₦1.64bn	₦1.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
100 250m2	6,317	610	₦1.38bn	₦1.38bn	29%	3.9 yr
250 1000m2	855	149	₦1.58bn	₦1.58bn	29%	3.6 yr
Over 1000m2	47	12	₦716m	₦716m	29%	3.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	146,006	1,777	₦3.66bn	₦3.63bn	5%	16.9 yr
Rural	39,466	1,261	₦931m	₦931m	9%	9.9 yr
Dense Urban	20,575	772	₦549m	₦549m	17%	6.1 yr
Urban	18,903	1,388	₦1.31bn	₦1.31bn	17%	6.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	156,533	1,120	₦421m	₦421m	5%	16.6 yr
Residential Small	34,103	780	₦1.63bn	₦1.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Formal	12,792	0	₦77.2m	₦77.2m	13%	7.9 yr
Residential	11,790	379	₦1.94bn	₦1.94bn	15%	6.9 yr
Residential Informal	4,615	0	₦62.3m	₦62.3m	19%	5.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	2,861	1,351	₦236m	₦236m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial	678	275	₦304m	₦304m	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	431	376	₦977m	₦977m	57%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	231	196	₦60.6m	₦60.6m	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	230	191	₦300m	₦300m	65%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	219	185	₦19.6m	₦19.6m	63%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	134	122	₦129m	₦129m	83%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	224,475	5,198	₦6.45bn	₦6.42bn
Farmland	310	0	₦1.84m	₦1.84m
Farmyard	140	0	₦1.47m	₦1.47m
Industrial	22	0	₦471k	₦471k
Commercial	3	0	₦37.5k	₦37.5k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	223,665	4,406	₦4.79bn	₦4.76bn	7%	15.1 yr
SME High	909	467	₦605m	₦605m	41%	2.6 yr
Enterprise	376	325	₦1.06bn	₦1.06bn	69%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	156,317	1,191	₦423m	₦423m
2.0	24,543	979	₦1.44bn	₦1.41bn
1.0	19,864	2,068	₦1.05bn	₦1.05bn
3.0	13,723	898	₦3.12bn	₦3.12bn
4.0	10,213	60	₦353m	₦353m
5.0	276	2	₦61.6m	₦61.6m
6.0	14	0	₦11.3m	₦11.3m