Niger State

Rooftop solar in Chanchaga, Niger: what the roofs are worth

Chanchaga has 146,020 buildings with a viable rooftop and 2.74 GWp of roof capacity. 16% run a generator, and together they spend ₦28.8bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

146,020

Usable roof area

12.2 km²

2.74 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦28.8bn/yr

16.4 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Chanchaga

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦28.8bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦28.5bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.71tn

NPV₦225bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy49 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity163 MWp

Capex₦160bn

Year-one energy value₦95.3bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.48tn

NPV₦701bn

Median IRR63%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Chanchaga's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 163 MWp
Capital cost: ₦160bn
Year 1 savings: ₦95.3bn/yr
NPV: ₦701bn
Median IRR: 63%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Chanchaga pays back quickly

Of the 143,041 buildings in Chanchaga with a modelled payback, 64.9% pay back inside five years and 12.0% inside three.

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How much of Chanchaga's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Chanchaga consume 85.2 GWh/yr but want 134 GWh/yr. The 37% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Chanchaga

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Chanchaga actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 143,041 buildings with a modelled result out of 146,020 in Chanchaga. 118,205 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years17,164 (12%)

Under 5 years92,824 (65%)

Under 7 years118,226 (83%)

Under 10 years131,779 (92%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%130,117 (89%)

Above 15%118,205 (81%)

Above 20%100,366 (69%)

Above 25%77,503 (53%)

CO₂ avoided

69.7 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

7.98 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

49 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

230k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Chanchaga.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Chanchaga

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	76,952	9,189	₦14.9bn	₦14.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
A	66,298	13,090	₦12.5bn	₦12.4bn	27%	4.1 yr
C	2,770	1,220	₦1.34bn	₦1.29bn	27%	3.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	141,299	21,915	₦15.6bn	₦15.4bn	25%	4.1 yr
Commercial General	2,312	750	₦6.9bn	₦6.84bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Retail	1,082	456	₦170m	₦170m	35%	3.1 yr
Anchor	848	236	₦4.96bn	₦4.95bn	45%	2.4 yr
Worship	274	81	₦209m	₦209m	35%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	110	27	₦740m	₦675m	35%	3.1 yr
Industrial	53	17	₦204m	₦204m	39%	2.9 yr
Filling Station	17	7	₦43.6m	₦43.6m	37%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	14	6	₦26.7m	₦26.7m	37%	2.9 yr
Productive Use	7	2	₦1.88m	₦1.88m	35%	3.1 yr
Automotive	4	2	₦9m	₦9m	31%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	46,517	7,710	₦9.34bn	₦9.32bn	27%	3.9 yr
Under 30m2	36,865	5,889	₦583m	₦538m	15%	6.9 yr
50 100m2	33,825	4,414	₦1.63bn	₦1.63bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	18,511	2,816	₦558m	₦498m	21%	5.4 yr
250 1000m2	10,135	2,605	₦11.3bn	₦11.3bn	29%	3.9 yr
Over 1000m2	167	65	₦5.37bn	₦5.27bn	33%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	141,336	22,318	₦25.6bn	₦25.4bn	25%	4.1 yr
Unclassified	2,990	753	₦1.76bn	₦1.64bn	27%	3.9 yr
Urban	1,694	428	₦1.52bn	₦1.47bn	27%	3.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	53,139	6,723	₦3.09bn	₦3.09bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Informal	52,025	5,317	₦4.19bn	₦4.19bn	25%	4.1 yr
Residential Small	11,219	3,495	₦1.21bn	₦1.1bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	10,648	2,338	₦278m	₦278m	21%	4.9 yr
Residential	8,067	3,020	₦6.37bn	₦6.31bn	29%	3.9 yr
Apartment	4,096	699	₦291m	₦291m	27%	3.9 yr
Duplex	2,105	323	₦148m	₦148m	27%	3.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	1,347	468	₦3.78bn	₦3.78bn	37%	2.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,081	456	₦162m	₦162m	35%	3.1 yr
Institutional	452	129	₦4.17bn	₦4.17bn	31%	3.4 yr
Educational Facility	299	91	₦350m	₦350m	45%	2.4 yr
Unknown	295	70	₦495m	₦495m	31%	3.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	145,830	23,435	₦28.8bn	₦28.5bn
Industrial	161	57	₦59.1m	₦59.1m
Farmland	25	3	₦5.5m	₦5.5m
Commercial	4	4	₦5.86m	₦5.86m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	143,551	22,667	₦18.7bn	₦18.4bn	25%	4.1 yr
SME High	1,617	589	₦5.07bn	₦5.07bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	852	243	₦5.06bn	₦5.06bn	45%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	75,632	10,128	₦13bn	₦13bn
3.0	34,397	6,694	₦10.9bn	₦10.7bn
2.0	20,818	3,292	₦989m	₦987m
0.0	10,308	2,325	₦274m	₦274m
1.0	4,099	816	₦108m	₦108m
5.0	666	202	₦2.15bn	₦2.15bn
6.0	100	42	₦1.35bn	₦1.35bn