Niger State

Rooftop solar in Borgu, Niger: what the roofs are worth

Borgu has 177,244 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.2 GWp of roof capacity. 9% run a generator, and together they spend ₦21.9bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

177,244

Usable roof area

5.41 km²

1.2 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦21.9bn/yr

18.7 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

14.9 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Borgu

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦21.9bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦21.8bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.16tn

NPV₦168bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback14.9 yr

Unlocked energy16.3 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity93.5 MWp

Capex₦101bn

Year-one energy value₦91.7bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.34tn

NPV₦734bn

Median IRR95%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Borgu's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 93.5 MWp
Capital cost: ₦101bn
Year 1 savings: ₦91.7bn/yr
NPV: ₦734bn
Median IRR: 95%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Borgu pays back quickly

Of the 173,004 buildings in Borgu with a modelled payback, 24.5% pay back inside five years and 9.2% inside three.

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How much of Borgu's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Borgu consume 39.6 GWh/yr but want 55.9 GWh/yr. The 29% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Borgu

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Borgu actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 173,004 buildings with a modelled result out of 177,244 in Borgu. 58,547 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years15,911 (9%)

Under 5 years42,363 (24%)

Under 7 years58,589 (34%)

Under 10 years71,045 (41%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%67,188 (38%)

Above 15%58,547 (33%)

Above 20%46,824 (26%)

Above 25%36,507 (21%)

CO₂ avoided

40.1 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

10.2 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

16.3 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

242k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Borgu.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Borgu

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	92,390	3,491	₦3.98bn	₦3.93bn	5%	16.9 yr
D	46,406	2,830	₦3.1bn	₦3.04bn	5%	16.1 yr
C	17,676	3,267	₦5.68bn	₦5.68bn	21%	5.1 yr
A	11,985	2,548	₦2.31bn	₦2.28bn	27%	3.9 yr
B	8,787	4,012	₦6.87bn	₦6.83bn	29%	3.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	175,447	14,604	₦15.8bn	₦15.7bn	7%	15.1 yr
Commercial Retail	555	529	₦78.2m	₦78.2m	51%	2.1 yr
Anchor	475	396	₦4.81bn	₦4.73bn	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	401	312	₦917m	₦917m	51%	2.1 yr
Worship	329	283	₦130m	₦130m	59%	1.9 yr
Industrial	23	19	₦133m	₦133m	51%	2.1 yr
Hospitality	10	4	₦31.4m	₦31.4m	37%	2.9 yr
Filling Station	3	0	₦2.26m	₦2.26m	37%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	1	1	₦172k	₦172k	45%	2.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	112,781	4,389	₦722m	₦722m	5%	17.6 yr
30 50m2	26,548	2,926	₦864m	₦854m	11%	8.6 yr
50 100m2	23,588	3,920	₦2.26bn	₦2.26bn	27%	4.1 yr
100 250m2	11,797	3,744	₦6.27bn	₦6.2bn	29%	3.9 yr
250 1000m2	2,436	1,122	₦7.81bn	₦7.72bn	29%	3.6 yr
Over 1000m2	94	47	₦4.01bn	₦4.01bn	35%	2.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	116,317	4,358	₦8.02bn	₦7.95bn	5%	17.1 yr
Rural	26,048	3,371	₦2.93bn	₦2.89bn	11%	9.1 yr
Urban Centre	15,044	4,572	₦5.47bn	₦5.44bn	29%	3.9 yr
Urban	14,937	3,006	₦4.17bn	₦4.13bn	23%	4.9 yr
Dense Urban	4,898	841	₦1.34bn	₦1.34bn	21%	5.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	123,525	4,294	₦762m	₦762m	5%	17.1 yr
Residential Small	29,908	5,427	₦2.93bn	₦2.92bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential	10,327	3,708	₦11.6bn	₦11.5bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential Informal	6,276	881	₦345m	₦345m	21%	4.6 yr
Residential Formal	5,134	277	₦156m	₦156m	21%	4.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	555	529	₦78.2m	₦78.2m	51%	2.1 yr
Institutional	350	297	₦2.29bn	₦2.29bn	55%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	156	136	₦363m	₦363m	79%	1.4 yr
Apartment	155	9	₦10.1m	₦10.1m	29%	3.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	143	101	₦170m	₦170m	47%	2.4 yr
Worship Center	121	104	₦51.6m	₦51.6m	63%	1.6 yr
School	120	101	₦151m	₦151m	75%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	176,623	16,142	₦21.9bn	₦21.7bn
Farmland	432	1	₦3.19m	₦3.19m
Farmyard	178	0	₦2.04m	₦2.04m
Industrial	6	5	₦44.5m	₦44.5m
Commercial	5	0	₦156k	₦156k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	176,580	15,617	₦16.8bn	₦16.7bn	7%	14.9 yr
Enterprise	495	412	₦4.9bn	₦4.81bn	59%	1.9 yr
SME High	169	119	₦248m	₦248m	47%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	123,565	4,328	₦764m	₦764m
2.0	20,074	3,905	₦2.94bn	₦2.9bn
3.0	16,914	5,498	₦16.5bn	₦16.3bn
1.0	10,746	1,769	₦780m	₦775m
4.0	5,920	645	₦830m	₦830m
5.0	25	3	₦155m	₦155m