Niger State

Rooftop solar in Kontagora, Niger: what the roofs are worth

Kontagora has 131,765 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.37 GWp of roof capacity. 6% run a generator, and together they spend ₦18.7bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

131,765

Usable roof area

6.16 km²

1.37 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦18.7bn/yr

14.6 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

7.1 yr

Median IRR 15% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Kontagora

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦18.7bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦18.5bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.05tn

NPV₦148bn

Median IRR15%

Median payback7.1 yr

Unlocked energy21.5 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity92.3 MWp

Capex₦93.6bn

Year-one energy value₦74.7bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.53tn

NPV₦586bn

Median IRR91%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Kontagora's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 92.3 MWp
Capital cost: ₦93.6bn
Year 1 savings: ₦74.7bn/yr
NPV: ₦586bn
Median IRR: 91%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Kontagora pays back quickly

Of the 129,182 buildings in Kontagora with a modelled payback, 34.3% pay back inside five years and 6.8% inside three.

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How much of Kontagora's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Kontagora consume 42.7 GWh/yr but want 64.2 GWh/yr. The 34% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Kontagora

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Kontagora actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 129,182 buildings with a modelled result out of 131,765 in Kontagora. 63,853 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years8,779 (7%)

Under 5 years44,348 (34%)

Under 7 years63,965 (50%)

Under 10 years79,211 (61%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%76,172 (58%)

Above 15%63,853 (48%)

Above 20%49,347 (37%)

Above 25%36,097 (27%)

CO₂ avoided

38.4 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

7.08 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

21.5 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

191k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Kontagora.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Kontagora

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	53,703	2,690	₦7.68bn	₦7.61bn	21%	5.1 yr
E	44,072	1,358	₦1.84bn	₦1.82bn	7%	15.1 yr
D	23,557	395	₦1.14bn	₦1.14bn	7%	15.1 yr
C	10,433	3,880	₦8.06bn	₦7.96bn	29%	3.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	125,557	5,708	₦10.3bn	₦10.3bn	13%	7.6 yr
Commercial Retail	3,891	1,367	₦303m	₦303m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial General	1,792	955	₦5.95bn	₦5.95bn	39%	2.6 yr
Anchor	308	158	₦2.01bn	₦1.91bn	47%	2.4 yr
Worship	156	112	₦46.4m	₦46.4m	51%	2.1 yr
Industrial	32	16	₦28.9m	₦28.9m	39%	2.4 yr
Hospitality	19	4	₦26.2m	₦26.2m	35%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	7	3	₦3.96m	₦3.96m	37%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	3	0	₦9.06m	₦9.06m	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	58,006	2,430	₦514m	₦455m	5%	16.4 yr
50 100m2	27,594	1,727	₦1.31bn	₦1.31bn	23%	4.9 yr
30 50m2	24,393	1,104	₦422m	₦421m	13%	8.1 yr
100 250m2	18,520	2,243	₦5.31bn	₦5.28bn	29%	3.9 yr
250 1000m2	3,155	778	₦9.06bn	₦8.96bn	29%	3.6 yr
Over 1000m2	97	41	₦2.09bn	₦2.09bn	31%	3.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	58,919	5,142	₦12.4bn	₦12.3bn	23%	4.9 yr
Unclassified	34,465	798	₦2.19bn	₦2.1bn	5%	16.9 yr
Urban	22,310	1,581	₦3.64bn	₦3.64bn	15%	7.1 yr
Rural	16,071	802	₦466m	₦466m	7%	14.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	52,452	1,290	₦307m	₦307m	5%	16.1 yr
Residential Informal	23,199	147	₦537m	₦537m	19%	5.6 yr
Residential Small	20,882	2,085	₦1.26bn	₦1.2bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Formal	17,417	402	₦521m	₦521m	21%	4.9 yr
Residential	10,940	1,686	₦7.67bn	₦7.64bn	29%	3.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	3,890	1,367	₦303m	₦303m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial	1,014	614	₦4.25bn	₦4.25bn	41%	2.6 yr
Apartment	514	94	₦43.7m	₦43.7m	29%	3.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	476	201	₦1.15bn	₦1.15bn	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	219	133	₦1.35bn	₦1.35bn	49%	2.1 yr
Duplex	149	4	₦5.05m	₦5.05m	29%	3.9 yr
Unknown	118	45	₦159m	₦159m	33%	3.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	131,427	8,298	₦18.6bn	₦18.4bn
Farmland	157	0	₦1.8m	₦1.8m
Industrial	121	25	₦136m	₦136m
Farmyard	60	0	₦879k	₦879k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	129,931	7,336	₦11.2bn	₦11.2bn	13%	7.1 yr
SME High	1,509	821	₦5.46bn	₦5.46bn	41%	2.6 yr
Enterprise	325	166	₦2.01bn	₦1.91bn	47%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	51,100	1,311	₦294m	₦294m
2.0	25,810	1,913	₦1.32bn	₦1.26bn
4.0	19,762	776	₦1.84bn	₦1.83bn
3.0	17,662	2,486	₦9.8bn	₦9.68bn
1.0	16,432	1,303	₦326m	₦326m
5.0	734	341	₦1.51bn	₦1.51bn
6.0	265	193	₦3.62bn	₦3.62bn