Niger State

Rooftop solar in Mashegu, Niger: what the roofs are worth

Mashegu has 250,257 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.4 GWp of roof capacity. 1% run a generator, and together they spend ₦5.3bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

250,257

Usable roof area

6.42 km²

1.4 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦5.3bn/yr

3.73 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

14.1 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Mashegu

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦5.3bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦5.15bn

Lifetime cash saved₦300bn

NPV₦33.2bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback14.1 yr

Unlocked energy9.05 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity87.1 MWp

Capex₦96.6bn

Year-one energy value₦94.4bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.5tn

NPV₦768bn

Median IRR99%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Mashegu's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 87.1 MWp
Capital cost: ₦96.6bn
Year 1 savings: ₦94.4bn/yr
NPV: ₦768bn
Median IRR: 99%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Mashegu pays back quickly

Of the 246,370 buildings in Mashegu with a modelled payback, 14.2% pay back inside five years and 1.4% inside three.

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How much of Mashegu's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Mashegu consume 13.3 GWh/yr but want 22.3 GWh/yr. The 41% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Mashegu

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Mashegu actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 246,370 buildings with a modelled result out of 250,257 in Mashegu. 63,759 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years3,370 (1%)

Under 5 years34,950 (14%)

Under 7 years63,823 (26%)

Under 10 years97,587 (40%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%87,640 (35%)

Above 15%63,759 (25%)

Above 20%41,545 (17%)

Above 25%24,266 (10%)

CO₂ avoided

12.3 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

1.75 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

9.05 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

320k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Mashegu.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Mashegu

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	149,359	2,379	₦3.2bn	₦3.05bn	7%	14.6 yr
D	95,343	914	₦1.98bn	₦1.97bn	9%	13.6 yr
B	4,690	8	₦64.1m	₦63.9m	15%	6.6 yr
C	865	15	₦62.1m	₦61.8m	19%	5.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	246,586	1,275	₦3.72bn	₦3.57bn	7%	14.4 yr
Commercial Retail	1,916	926	₦193m	₦193m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial General	697	300	₦401m	₦401m	35%	3.1 yr
Worship	665	534	₦135m	₦135m	57%	1.9 yr
Anchor	358	258	₦824m	₦824m	53%	1.9 yr
Industrial	33	22	₦22.2m	₦22.2m	65%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	2	1	₦597k	₦597k	35%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	141,394	1,274	₦424m	₦424m	5%	16.6 yr
30 50m2	57,118	865	₦503m	₦502m	9%	9.6 yr
50 100m2	42,941	675	₦1.09bn	₦1.09bn	21%	5.1 yr
100 250m2	7,982	381	₦1.14bn	₦1.14bn	27%	3.9 yr
250 1000m2	771	107	₦1.38bn	₦1.23bn	29%	3.9 yr
Over 1000m2	51	14	₦762m	₦762m	29%	3.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	94,758	858	₦2.61bn	₦2.46bn	5%	16.1 yr
Rural	73,390	1,736	₦1.35bn	₦1.35bn	7%	14.1 yr
Dense Urban	56,233	230	₦739m	₦739m	13%	8.1 yr
Urban	25,876	492	₦597m	₦597m	11%	9.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	159,213	699	₦400m	₦400m	5%	15.9 yr
Residential Small	48,776	388	₦1.02bn	₦1.02bn	21%	5.1 yr
Residential	18,682	188	₦2.19bn	₦2.04bn	15%	6.9 yr
Residential Formal	17,891	0	₦98m	₦98m	13%	7.9 yr
Residential Informal	2,021	0	₦16.8m	₦16.8m	17%	6.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,916	926	₦193m	₦193m	35%	3.1 yr
Institutional	414	317	₦696m	₦696m	55%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	259	59	₦91m	₦91m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial	222	97	₦133m	₦133m	35%	3.1 yr
Place Of Worship	221	179	₦17.4m	₦17.4m	59%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	220	174	₦47.2m	₦47.2m	61%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	112	94	₦104m	₦104m	79%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	250,087	3,316	₦5.3bn	₦5.14bn
Farmland	128	0	₦1.81m	₦1.81m
Farmyard	42	0	₦566k	₦566k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	249,392	2,881	₦4.23bn	₦4.08bn	7%	14.1 yr
SME High	482	157	₦224m	₦224m	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	383	278	₦844m	₦844m	55%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	159,306	774	₦404m	₦404m
2.0	33,393	697	₦1.29bn	₦1.29bn
1.0	29,094	1,482	₦759m	₦759m
3.0	15,162	350	₦2.63bn	₦2.48bn
4.0	13,243	12	₦184m	₦184m
5.0	57	1	₦27.5m	₦27.5m
6.0	2	0	₦5.76m	₦5.76m