Niger State

Rooftop solar in Munya, Niger: what the roofs are worth

Munya has 83,460 buildings with a viable rooftop and 515 MWp of roof capacity. 2% run a generator, and together they spend ₦2.68bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

83,460

Usable roof area

2.34 km²

515 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦2.68bn/yr

2.16 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

14.9 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Munya

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦2.68bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦2.68bn

Lifetime cash saved₦158bn

NPV₦19.4bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback14.9 yr

Unlocked energy5.1 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity48.9 MWp

Capex₦53.3bn

Year-one energy value₦54.7bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.61tn

NPV₦448bn

Median IRR101%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Munya's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 48.9 MWp
Capital cost: ₦53.3bn
Year 1 savings: ₦54.7bn/yr
NPV: ₦448bn
Median IRR: 101%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Munya pays back quickly

Of the 80,730 buildings in Munya with a modelled payback, 19.7% pay back inside five years and 2.4% inside three.

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How much of Munya's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Munya consume 6.95 GWh/yr but want 12 GWh/yr. The 42% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Munya

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Munya actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 80,730 buildings with a modelled result out of 83,460 in Munya. 20,534 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years1,977 (2%)

Under 5 years15,922 (20%)

Under 7 years20,547 (25%)

Under 10 years28,816 (36%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%25,664 (31%)

Above 15%20,534 (25%)

Above 20%17,163 (21%)

Above 25%13,245 (16%)

CO₂ avoided

6.39 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

846036 litres/yr

Energy unlocked

5.1 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

185k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Munya.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Munya

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	55,528	1,430	₦1.85bn	₦1.85bn	7%	14.9 yr
D	27,932	544	₦828m	₦828m	7%	14.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	82,131	702	₦1.46bn	₦1.46bn	7%	14.9 yr
Commercial General	358	349	₦490m	₦490m	61%	1.6 yr
Anchor	346	332	₦549m	₦549m	71%	1.4 yr
Worship	323	309	₦137m	₦137m	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	284	266	₦32.1m	₦32.1m	65%	1.6 yr
Industrial	18	16	₦17m	₦17m	69%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	47,645	654	₦155m	₦155m	5%	17.6 yr
30 50m2	16,557	330	₦190m	₦190m	9%	12.9 yr
50 100m2	13,697	475	₦653m	₦653m	25%	4.4 yr
100 250m2	5,048	399	₦835m	₦835m	29%	3.9 yr
250 1000m2	499	113	₦779m	₦779m	29%	3.9 yr
Over 1000m2	14	3	₦71.3m	₦71.3m	29%	3.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	59,975	718	₦1.41bn	₦1.41bn	5%	15.9 yr
Rural	16,393	823	₦728m	₦728m	9%	9.4 yr
Dense Urban	5,332	335	₦485m	₦485m	11%	8.4 yr
Urban	1,760	98	₦55.6m	₦55.6m	9%	9.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	56,282	268	₦125m	₦125m	5%	16.6 yr
Residential Small	18,763	336	₦637m	₦637m	23%	4.6 yr
Residential	7,086	98	₦696m	₦696m	23%	4.4 yr
Institutional	296	284	₦384m	₦384m	59%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	284	266	₦32.1m	₦32.1m	65%	1.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	154	153	₦221m	₦221m	67%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	123	115	₦109m	₦109m	83%	1.1 yr
Worship Center	112	106	₦29.7m	₦29.7m	65%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	103	99	₦17.9m	₦17.9m	63%	1.6 yr
Healthcare Facility	77	75	₦202m	₦202m	53%	1.9 yr
School	76	72	₦47.3m	₦47.3m	83%	1.4 yr
Clinic	66	66	₦143m	₦143m	53%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	83,441	1,974	₦2.68bn	₦2.68bn
Farmland	10	0	₦182k	₦182k
Farmyard	9	0	₦777k	₦777k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	82,942	1,472	₦1.88bn	₦1.88bn	7%	14.9 yr
Enterprise	358	343	₦564m	₦564m	71%	1.4 yr
SME High	160	159	₦234m	₦234m	67%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	56,324	308	₦128m	₦128m
2.0	10,832	490	₦715m	₦715m
1.0	8,840	632	₦383m	₦383m
3.0	7,425	505	₦1.31bn	₦1.31bn
4.0	36	36	₦121m	₦121m
5.0	3	3	₦28.1m	₦28.1m