Niger State

Rooftop solar in Gbako, Niger: what the roofs are worth

Gbako has 64,405 buildings with a viable rooftop and 488 MWp of roof capacity. 4% run a generator, and together they spend ₦5.98bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

64,405

Usable roof area

2.21 km²

488 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦5.98bn/yr

4.72 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

9.9 yr

Median IRR 9% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Gbako

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦5.98bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦5.89bn

Lifetime cash saved₦327bn

NPV₦46.2bn

Median IRR9%

Median payback9.9 yr

Unlocked energy7.29 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity65.3 MWp

Capex₦70.3bn

Year-one energy value₦71.3bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.39tn

NPV₦582bn

Median IRR105%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Gbako's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 65.3 MWp
Capital cost: ₦70.3bn
Year 1 savings: ₦71.3bn/yr
NPV: ₦582bn
Median IRR: 105%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Gbako pays back quickly

Of the 63,907 buildings in Gbako with a modelled payback, 30.2% pay back inside five years and 3.9% inside three.

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How much of Gbako's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Gbako consume 11.6 GWh/yr but want 18.9 GWh/yr. The 39% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Gbako

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Gbako actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 63,907 buildings with a modelled result out of 64,405 in Gbako. 24,344 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years2,462 (4%)

Under 5 years19,327 (30%)

Under 7 years24,340 (38%)

Under 10 years33,268 (52%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%29,393 (46%)

Above 15%24,344 (38%)

Above 20%20,758 (32%)

Above 25%16,257 (25%)

CO₂ avoided

12.3 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

2.64 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

7.29 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

235k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Gbako.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Gbako

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	42,293	1,540	₦3.86bn	₦3.84bn	9%	9.9 yr
D	21,532	803	₦2.02bn	₦1.95bn	9%	9.6 yr
C	580	118	₦102m	₦102m	27%	3.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	63,368	1,479	₦4.79bn	₦4.7bn	9%	9.9 yr
Anchor	441	413	₦567m	₦567m	77%	1.4 yr
Worship	288	277	₦168m	₦168m	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	267	255	₦417m	₦417m	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	22	22	₦8.42m	₦8.42m	69%	1.6 yr
Industrial	17	13	₦32m	₦31.6m	67%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	2	2	₦2.06m	₦2.06m	65%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	26,962	560	₦144m	₦144m	7%	15.6 yr
30 50m2	18,657	450	₦342m	₦335m	9%	9.6 yr
50 100m2	13,623	549	₦1.33bn	₦1.27bn	27%	4.1 yr
100 250m2	4,699	676	₦2.3bn	₦2.28bn	27%	3.9 yr
250 1000m2	456	221	₦1.85bn	₦1.85bn	29%	3.9 yr
Over 1000m2	8	5	₦18.8m	₦18.8m	77%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	48,382	1,545	₦3.58bn	₦3.49bn	9%	13.1 yr
Rural	13,798	545	₦1.65bn	₦1.65bn	11%	8.9 yr
Urban	2,225	371	₦745m	₦745m	23%	4.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	36,384	498	₦139m	₦139m	7%	14.6 yr
Residential Small	19,928	531	₦1.58bn	₦1.51bn	25%	4.1 yr
Residential	7,056	450	₦3.07bn	₦3.05bn	27%	4.1 yr
Institutional	325	312	₦467m	₦467m	57%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	174	166	₦185m	₦185m	83%	1.4 yr
School	110	104	₦59.2m	₦59.2m	81%	1.4 yr
Place Of Worship	96	92	₦14.6m	₦14.6m	63%	1.6 yr
Worship Center	95	91	₦46.7m	₦46.7m	65%	1.6 yr
Healthcare Facility	85	77	₦230m	₦230m	51%	2.1 yr
Clinic	70	64	₦91m	₦91m	51%	2.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	22	22	₦8.42m	₦8.42m	69%	1.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	21	21	₦50.1m	₦50.1m	71%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	64,405	2,461	₦5.98bn	₦5.89bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	63,930	2,014	₦5.34bn	₦5.25bn	9%	9.9 yr
Enterprise	448	420	₦593m	₦592m	77%	1.4 yr
SME High	27	27	₦52.4m	₦52.4m	71%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	36,405	517	₦140m	₦140m
2.0	13,330	840	₦2.11bn	₦2.09bn
1.0	9,139	440	₦617m	₦552m
3.0	5,523	656	₦3.07bn	₦3.06bn
4.0	8	8	₦47m	₦47m