Niger State

Rooftop solar in Lavun, Niger: what the roofs are worth

Lavun has 109,685 buildings with a viable rooftop and 898 MWp of roof capacity. 4% run a generator, and together they spend ₦12.1bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

109,685

Usable roof area

4.07 km²

898 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦12.1bn/yr

10.5 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

9.9 yr

Median IRR 9% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Lavun

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦12.1bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦11.2bn

Lifetime cash saved₦592bn

NPV₦88bn

Median IRR9%

Median payback9.9 yr

Unlocked energy10.4 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity77 MWp

Capex₦83.1bn

Year-one energy value₦81bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.85tn

NPV₦657bn

Median IRR101%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Lavun's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 77 MWp
Capital cost: ₦83.1bn
Year 1 savings: ₦81bn/yr
NPV: ₦657bn
Median IRR: 101%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Lavun pays back quickly

Of the 106,897 buildings in Lavun with a modelled payback, 25.0% pay back inside five years and 4.3% inside three.

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How much of Lavun's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Lavun consume 19.7 GWh/yr but want 30.2 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Lavun

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Lavun actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 106,897 buildings with a modelled result out of 109,685 in Lavun. 39,472 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years4,648 (4%)

Under 5 years26,686 (25%)

Under 7 years39,477 (37%)

Under 10 years54,161 (51%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%49,551 (45%)

Above 15%39,472 (36%)

Above 20%30,106 (27%)

Above 25%20,579 (19%)

CO₂ avoided

21.4 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

5.51 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

10.4 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

248k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Lavun.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Lavun

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	62,379	2,349	₦6.53bn	₦5.83bn	9%	13.1 yr
D	42,099	2,165	₦5.09bn	₦4.93bn	9%	9.9 yr
C	5,207	143	₦456m	₦456m	15%	6.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	108,248	3,624	₦9.44bn	₦8.69bn	9%	12.6 yr
Commercial General	438	333	₦492m	₦492m	57%	1.9 yr
Anchor	435	380	₦2.02bn	₦1.91bn	73%	1.4 yr
Commercial Retail	337	133	₦19.5m	₦19.5m	33%	3.4 yr
Worship	211	172	₦99.4m	₦99.4m	59%	1.9 yr
Industrial	16	15	₦9.03m	₦9.03m	59%	1.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	45,635	904	₦228m	₦228m	5%	16.6 yr
30 50m2	28,353	823	₦433m	₦433m	9%	9.6 yr
50 100m2	25,200	1,324	₦1.74bn	₦1.66bn	23%	4.9 yr
100 250m2	9,419	1,340	₦4.67bn	₦4.38bn	27%	3.9 yr
250 1000m2	1,036	246	₦3.46bn	₦3.07bn	29%	3.9 yr
Over 1000m2	42	20	₦1.55bn	₦1.45bn	29%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	53,976	1,982	₦6.96bn	₦6.16bn	9%	13.4 yr
Rural	22,653	1,971	₦3.23bn	₦3.18bn	13%	7.9 yr
Urban	17,543	392	₦891m	₦891m	7%	13.9 yr
Dense Urban	15,513	312	₦995m	₦995m	9%	9.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	56,833	912	₦213m	₦213m	7%	15.4 yr
Residential Small	33,665	1,763	₦2.32bn	₦2.24bn	21%	4.9 yr
Residential	11,754	949	₦6.84bn	₦6.16bn	25%	4.1 yr
Residential Formal	3,998	0	₦15.1m	₦15.1m	3%	14.9 yr
Residential Informal	1,998	0	₦54.5m	₦54.5m	19%	5.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	337	133	₦19.5m	₦19.5m	33%	3.4 yr
Institutional	315	274	₦1.35bn	₦1.3bn	57%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	160	145	₦199m	₦199m	83%	1.4 yr
Commercial	122	117	₦108m	₦108m	63%	1.6 yr
School	98	84	₦79.1m	₦79.1m	81%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	93	82	₦645m	₦588m	51%	2.1 yr
Worship Center	71	58	₦34.4m	₦34.4m	63%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	109,683	4,657	₦12.1bn	₦11.2bn
Industrial	2	0	₦68.1k	₦68.1k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	109,061	4,144	₦9.94bn	₦9.19bn	9%	9.9 yr
Enterprise	448	393	₦2.02bn	₦1.92bn	69%	1.6 yr
SME High	176	120	₦114m	₦114m	57%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	56,850	925	₦214m	₦214m
2.0	23,224	2,025	₦3.13bn	₦3.04bn
1.0	22,170	675	₦730m	₦690m
3.0	4,936	1,022	₦7.91bn	₦7.17bn
4.0	2,497	10	₦101m	₦101m
5.0	8	0	₦1.93m	₦1.93m