Niger State

Rooftop solar in Suleja, Niger: what the roofs are worth

Suleja has 75,218 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.26 GWp of roof capacity. 6% run a generator, and together they spend ₦15bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

75,218

Usable roof area

5.63 km²

1.26 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦15bn/yr

8.82 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Suleja

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦15bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦14.8bn

Lifetime cash saved₦876bn

NPV₦117bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy23.5 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity99 MWp

Capex₦100bn

Year-one energy value₦69.5bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.28tn

NPV₦531bn

Median IRR71%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Suleja's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 99 MWp
Capital cost: ₦100bn
Year 1 savings: ₦69.5bn/yr
NPV: ₦531bn
Median IRR: 71%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Suleja pays back quickly

Of the 72,591 buildings in Suleja with a modelled payback, 61.8% pay back inside five years and 6.6% inside three.

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How much of Suleja's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Suleja consume 39.5 GWh/yr but want 63 GWh/yr. The 37% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Suleja

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Suleja actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 72,591 buildings with a modelled result out of 75,218 in Suleja. 57,476 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years4,812 (7%)

Under 5 years44,895 (62%)

Under 7 years57,467 (79%)

Under 10 years64,761 (89%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%63,812 (85%)

Above 15%57,476 (76%)

Above 20%48,346 (64%)

Above 25%38,317 (51%)

CO₂ avoided

35.1 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

5.04 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

23.5 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

232k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Suleja.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Suleja

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	36,023	1,170	₦3.56bn	₦3.56bn	23%	4.6 yr
C	33,228	3,080	₦9.66bn	₦9.54bn	27%	4.1 yr
A	2,585	142	₦142m	₦142m	25%	4.4 yr
D	1,870	127	₦1.47bn	₦1.47bn	17%	6.4 yr
E	1,512	41	₦124m	₦124m	7%	14.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	69,788	3,447	₦10.7bn	₦10.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	2,587	586	₦3.07bn	₦3.07bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	2,230	379	₦155m	₦155m	33%	3.1 yr
Anchor	406	91	₦753m	₦703m	43%	2.4 yr
Worship	120	32	₦68.9m	₦68.9m	35%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	41	7	₦63m	₦63m	35%	3.1 yr
Industrial	35	18	₦98.2m	₦98.2m	39%	2.9 yr
Productive Use	5	0	₦800k	₦800k	35%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	4	0	₦1.52m	₦1.52m	35%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	2	0	₦449k	₦449k	35%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	22,630	1,620	₦6.77bn	₦6.77bn	27%	4.1 yr
50 100m2	19,312	1,053	₦1.55bn	₦1.53bn	25%	4.1 yr
Under 30m2	18,896	923	₦251m	₦247m	13%	6.9 yr
30 50m2	10,575	553	₦334m	₦330m	21%	5.4 yr
250 1000m2	3,752	396	₦5.15bn	₦5.13bn	27%	3.9 yr
Over 1000m2	53	15	₦898m	₦826m	29%	3.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	59,035	2,676	₦9.55bn	₦9.45bn	25%	4.4 yr
Dense Urban	8,269	1,036	₦3.22bn	₦3.21bn	27%	4.1 yr
Unclassified	4,401	291	₦1.1bn	₦1.07bn	17%	5.9 yr
Urban	3,317	551	₦1.09bn	₦1.09bn	27%	3.9 yr
Rural	196	6	₦5.64m	₦5.64m	13%	6.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	27,176	25	₦1.12bn	₦1.11bn	21%	4.9 yr
Residential Formal	20,451	748	₦2.04bn	₦2.02bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Small	7,928	1,183	₦1.36bn	₦1.36bn	27%	4.1 yr
Shed	6,817	397	₦86.6m	₦86.6m	17%	6.6 yr
Residential	4,317	901	₦5.72bn	₦5.67bn	27%	3.9 yr
Apartment	2,417	165	₦355m	₦355m	27%	4.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	2,232	379	₦155m	₦155m	33%	3.1 yr
Commercial	1,443	493	₦1.91bn	₦1.91bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	745	1	₦576m	₦576m	35%	3.1 yr
Duplex	682	28	₦70.4m	₦70.4m	27%	4.1 yr
Institutional	213	55	₦644m	₦594m	31%	3.4 yr
Unknown	176	46	₦308m	₦308m	31%	3.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	75,106	4,521	₦14.6bn	₦14.5bn
Industrial	78	38	₦353m	₦353m
Commercial	28	1	₦1.99m	₦1.99m
Farmland	5	0	₦133k	₦133k
Retail	1	0	₦535	₦535

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	72,662	3,959	₦11.7bn	₦11.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
SME High	2,136	497	₦2.45bn	₦2.45bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	420	104	₦835m	₦785m	43%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	33,109	945	₦4.49bn	₦4.47bn
3.0	19,374	2,009	₦7.96bn	₦7.85bn
2.0	12,043	629	₦591m	₦583m
0.0	6,547	407	₦84.6m	₦84.6m
1.0	3,165	339	₦94.2m	₦94.2m
5.0	919	207	₦1.34bn	₦1.34bn
6.0	61	24	₦410m	₦409m