Niger State

Rooftop solar in Agwara, Niger: what the roofs are worth

Agwara has 50,522 buildings with a viable rooftop and 222 MWp of roof capacity. 2% run a generator, and together they spend ₦3.12bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

50,522

Usable roof area

1 km²

222 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦3.12bn/yr

3.34 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

16.9 yr

Median IRR 5% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Agwara

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦3.12bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦3.04bn

Lifetime cash saved₦166bn

NPV₦23.7bn

Median IRR5%

Median payback16.9 yr

Unlocked energy3.61 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity20.3 MWp

Capex₦21.7bn

Year-one energy value₦20.4bn

Lifetime energy value₦967bn

NPV₦165bn

Median IRR95%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Agwara's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 20.3 MWp
Capital cost: ₦21.7bn
Year 1 savings: ₦20.4bn/yr
NPV: ₦165bn
Median IRR: 95%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Agwara pays back quickly

Of the 50,113 buildings in Agwara with a modelled payback, 12.0% pay back inside five years and 2.7% inside three.

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How much of Agwara's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Agwara consume 6.24 GWh/yr but want 9.85 GWh/yr. The 37% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Agwara

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Agwara actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 50,113 buildings with a modelled result out of 50,522 in Agwara. 10,479 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years1,354 (3%)

Under 5 years5,994 (12%)

Under 7 years10,512 (21%)

Under 10 years15,281 (30%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%14,216 (28%)

Above 15%10,479 (21%)

Above 20%6,724 (13%)

Above 25%4,988 (10%)

CO₂ avoided

5.8 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

1.18 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

3.61 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

50.8k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Agwara.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Agwara

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	29,163	237	₦1.76bn	₦1.68bn	5%	17.9 yr
D	13,636	599	₦911m	₦908m	5%	17.4 yr
C	7,723	346	₦458m	₦453m	17%	6.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	49,421	837	₦1.05bn	₦975m	5%	16.9 yr
Commercial Retail	611	105	₦36.4m	₦36.4m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial General	325	106	₦363m	₦359m	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	163	134	₦1.67bn	₦1.67bn	65%	1.6 yr
Worship	2	0	₦21.5k	₦21.5k	21%	4.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	37,995	399	₦115m	₦115m	3%	18.4 yr
30 50m2	6,330	156	₦85m	₦85m	11%	8.9 yr
50 100m2	4,417	245	₦269m	₦269m	25%	4.4 yr
100 250m2	1,463	263	₦609m	₦533m	29%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	290	105	₦681m	₦673m	29%	3.6 yr
Over 1000m2	27	14	₦1.36bn	₦1.36bn	59%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	33,604	257	₦1.47bn	₦1.47bn	3%	18.6 yr
Rural	8,631	229	₦908m	₦832m	9%	13.9 yr
Urban	8,287	696	₦746m	₦739m	17%	6.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	40,190	202	₦101m	₦101m	5%	17.9 yr
Residential Small	6,751	353	₦272m	₦272m	21%	5.1 yr
Residential	2,480	282	₦678m	₦602m	25%	4.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	611	105	₦36.4m	₦36.4m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	205	44	₦225m	₦220m	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	82	71	₦1.46bn	₦1.46bn	55%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	59	50	₦76.3m	₦76.3m	79%	1.4 yr
Commercial	50	2	₦19.9m	₦19.9m	37%	2.9 yr
School	41	33	₦47.7m	₦47.7m	75%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	37	28	₦110m	₦109m	49%	2.1 yr
Clinic	15	12	₦94.1m	₦91.1m	49%	2.1 yr
Place Of Worship	1	0	₦7.4k	₦7.4k	21%	4.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	50,326	1,071	₦3.06bn	₦2.97bn
Commercial	120	110	₦64.8m	₦64.8m
Farmland	76	1	₦800k	₦800k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	50,104	1,002	₦1.21bn	₦1.13bn	5%	16.9 yr
SME High	255	46	₦245m	₦240m	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	163	134	₦1.67bn	₦1.67bn	65%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	40,191	203	₦101m	₦101m
1.0	3,584	241	₦114m	₦114m
2.0	3,436	322	₦438m	₦362m
3.0	3,267	397	₦2.28bn	₦2.28bn
4.0	42	17	₦133m	₦129m
5.0	2	2	₦58.8m	₦58.8m