Niger State

Rooftop solar in Mokwa, Niger: what the roofs are worth

Mokwa has 109,100 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.1 GWp of roof capacity. 8% run a generator, and together they spend ₦28.3bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

109,100

Usable roof area

4.96 km²

1.1 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦28.3bn/yr

22.5 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

6.4 yr

Median IRR 15% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Mokwa

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦28.3bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦26.9bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.46tn

NPV₦215bn

Median IRR15%

Median payback6.4 yr

Unlocked energy28.4 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity149 MWp

Capex₦150bn

Year-one energy value₦130bn

Lifetime energy value₦6.13tn

NPV₦1.03tn

Median IRR93%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Mokwa's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 149 MWp
Capital cost: ₦150bn
Year 1 savings: ₦130bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.03tn
Median IRR: 93%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Mokwa pays back quickly

Of the 105,385 buildings in Mokwa with a modelled payback, 40.2% pay back inside five years and 8.7% inside three.

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How much of Mokwa's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Mokwa consume 56.3 GWh/yr but want 84.7 GWh/yr. The 33% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Mokwa

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Mokwa actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 105,385 buildings with a modelled result out of 109,100 in Mokwa. 54,872 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years9,174 (9%)

Under 5 years42,415 (40%)

Under 7 years54,874 (52%)

Under 10 years67,059 (64%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%63,686 (58%)

Above 15%54,872 (50%)

Above 20%45,807 (42%)

Above 25%36,908 (34%)

CO₂ avoided

54.2 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

11.6 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

28.4 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

374k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Mokwa.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Mokwa

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	42,507	2,515	₦9.53bn	₦8.57bn	9%	13.4 yr
D	31,639	2,461	₦4.89bn	₦4.87bn	15%	6.9 yr
C	17,580	2,050	₦5.96bn	₦5.85bn	27%	4.1 yr
B	16,730	1,257	₦5.91bn	₦5.61bn	19%	4.4 yr
A	644	464	₦2.04bn	₦2.03bn	45%	2.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	100,863	6,454	₦19.1bn	₦17.8bn	13%	7.6 yr
Commercial Retail	4,193	654	₦254m	₦254m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial General	2,884	729	₦3.36bn	₦3.35bn	35%	3.1 yr
Worship	611	507	₦269m	₦269m	59%	1.9 yr
Anchor	481	376	₦5.23bn	₦5.22bn	57%	1.9 yr
Industrial	59	27	₦59.3m	₦59.3m	39%	2.9 yr
Filling Station	7	0	₦2.68m	₦2.68m	35%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	2	0	₦426k	₦426k	31%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	44,631	1,787	₦473m	₦452m	5%	15.9 yr
50 100m2	24,520	2,310	₦4.49bn	₦4.06bn	27%	4.1 yr
30 50m2	22,630	1,593	₦1.11bn	₦1.07bn	11%	8.1 yr
100 250m2	15,347	2,503	₦9.81bn	₦9.38bn	27%	3.9 yr
250 1000m2	1,910	510	₦6.96bn	₦6.57bn	29%	3.9 yr
Over 1000m2	62	44	₦5.48bn	₦5.4bn	55%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	46,944	3,535	₦12.9bn	₦11.7bn	9%	13.4 yr
Rural	28,381	1,883	₦4.4bn	₦4.4bn	13%	7.4 yr
Urban Centre	18,033	1,728	₦4bn	₦3.99bn	21%	4.4 yr
Urban	9,774	1,123	₦6.09bn	₦5.92bn	27%	3.9 yr
Dense Urban	5,968	478	₦918m	₦904m	21%	5.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	47,815	1,555	₦296m	₦296m	7%	15.1 yr
Residential Small	29,552	2,878	₦5.53bn	₦4.93bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential	11,903	2,017	₦13.1bn	₦12.4bn	27%	3.9 yr
Residential Formal	6,299	0	₦99.5m	₦99.5m	15%	6.6 yr
Residential Informal	4,554	4	₦61.5m	₦61.5m	-3%	6.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	4,193	654	₦254m	₦254m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial	1,677	352	₦1.98bn	₦1.97bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	845	145	₦968m	₦968m	35%	3.1 yr
Apartment	620	0	₦11.8m	₦11.8m	23%	4.6 yr
Institutional	494	394	₦4.58bn	₦4.57bn	55%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	203	166	₦73.9m	₦73.9m	61%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	200	167	₦38.5m	₦38.5m	61%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	108,931	8,618	₦26.7bn	₦25.3bn
Industrial	140	114	₦1.24bn	₦1.24bn
Farmland	26	15	₦352m	₦352m
Farmyard	3	0	₦110k	₦110k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	106,060	7,856	₦20.1bn	₦18.8bn	15%	6.9 yr
SME High	2,523	491	₦2.91bn	₦2.9bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	517	400	₦5.29bn	₦5.27bn	57%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	47,731	1,595	₦298m	₦298m
3.0	25,345	3,663	₦18.7bn	₦17.8bn
2.0	17,793	2,091	₦4.23bn	₦3.87bn
4.0	11,208	391	₦1.14bn	₦1.14bn
1.0	4,917	577	₦1.18bn	₦1bn
5.0	1,849	352	₦1.67bn	₦1.67bn
6.0	257	78	₦1.13bn	₦1.11bn