Niger State

Rooftop solar in Gurara, Niger: what the roofs are worth

Gurara has 50,966 buildings with a viable rooftop and 477 MWp of roof capacity. 6% run a generator, and together they spend ₦8.1bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

50,966

Usable roof area

2.14 km²

477 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦8.1bn/yr

6.58 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

8.6 yr

Median IRR 11% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Gurara

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦8.1bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦7.98bn

Lifetime cash saved₦449bn

NPV₦64.4bn

Median IRR11%

Median payback8.6 yr

Unlocked energy11 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity56.6 MWp

Capex₦55.4bn

Year-one energy value₦45.4bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.14tn

NPV₦358bn

Median IRR91%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Gurara's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 56.6 MWp
Capital cost: ₦55.4bn
Year 1 savings: ₦45.4bn/yr
NPV: ₦358bn
Median IRR: 91%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Gurara pays back quickly

Of the 47,795 buildings in Gurara with a modelled payback, 33.8% pay back inside five years and 7.1% inside three.

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How much of Gurara's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Gurara consume 19.2 GWh/yr but want 30.2 GWh/yr. The 36% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Gurara

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Gurara actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 47,795 buildings with a modelled result out of 50,966 in Gurara. 21,802 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years3,400 (7%)

Under 5 years16,148 (34%)

Under 7 years21,807 (46%)

Under 10 years27,275 (57%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%25,794 (51%)

Above 15%21,802 (43%)

Above 20%17,610 (35%)

Above 25%13,445 (26%)

CO₂ avoided

17.1 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

2.88 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

11 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

98.6k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Gurara.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Gurara

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	22,060	962	₦1.67bn	₦1.65bn	7%	14.4 yr
D	16,314	1,007	₦1.14bn	₦1.14bn	13%	7.4 yr
C	6,798	1,001	₦4.04bn	₦3.94bn	25%	4.1 yr
B	3,774	201	₦823m	₦823m	7%	5.6 yr
A	2,020	2	₦431m	₦431m	11%	7.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	47,548	1,924	₦3.51bn	₦3.51bn	9%	9.4 yr
Commercial General	1,507	528	₦2.37bn	₦2.27bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	1,334	286	₦74.9m	₦74.9m	35%	3.1 yr
Anchor	318	222	₦1.78bn	₦1.76bn	53%	1.9 yr
Worship	235	199	₦133m	₦133m	61%	1.6 yr
Industrial	19	11	₦227m	₦227m	43%	2.6 yr
Hospitality	2	2	₦1.98m	₦1.98m	71%	1.4 yr
Filling Station	1	1	₦308k	₦308k	51%	2.1 yr
Mall Retail	1	0	₦54.6k	₦54.6k	35%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	1	0	₦92.5k	₦92.5k	35%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	23,663	844	₦185m	₦185m	5%	17.1 yr
50 100m2	11,081	854	₦1.03bn	₦1.03bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	8,945	528	₦225m	₦225m	11%	8.9 yr
100 250m2	6,453	724	₦2.22bn	₦2.22bn	27%	3.9 yr
250 1000m2	790	207	₦2.5bn	₦2.49bn	29%	3.9 yr
Over 1000m2	34	16	₦1.93bn	₦1.83bn	37%	2.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	20,535	913	₦2bn	₦2bn	5%	16.1 yr
Dense Urban	12,858	937	₦3.07bn	₦2.97bn	17%	5.9 yr
Rural	11,449	900	₦1.14bn	₦1.13bn	17%	6.4 yr
Urban	4,630	335	₦1.8bn	₦1.8bn	21%	5.1 yr
Urban Centre	1,494	88	₦81.1m	₦81.1m	13%	6.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	23,220	581	₦114m	₦114m	5%	16.4 yr
Residential Small	11,287	979	₦1.03bn	₦1.03bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Formal	7,940	0	₦60.3m	₦60.3m	9%	7.9 yr
Residential	3,652	364	₦2.29bn	₦2.28bn	27%	3.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,335	286	₦75m	₦75m	35%	3.1 yr
Residential Informal	1,147	0	₦17.2m	₦17.2m	15%	6.9 yr
Commercial	905	323	₦1.9bn	₦1.8bn	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	248	190	₦1.37bn	₦1.37bn	55%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	226	61	₦141m	₦141m	35%	3.1 yr
Market	154	0	₦2.81m	₦2.81m	29%	3.6 yr
Duplex	151	0	₦1.32m	₦1.32m	17%	6.4 yr
Apartment	147	0	₦1.89m	₦1.89m	21%	5.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	50,654	3,118	₦7.55bn	₦7.43bn
Industrial	304	55	₦546m	₦546m
Farmyard	4	0	₦104k	₦104k
Retail	3	0	₦23.9k	₦23.9k
Farmland	1	0	₦47.2k	₦47.2k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	49,509	2,560	₦4.06bn	₦4.06bn	9%	8.9 yr
SME High	1,128	381	₦2.04bn	₦1.93bn	35%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	329	232	₦2bn	₦1.98bn	53%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	23,261	602	₦116m	₦116m
3.0	8,188	982	₦4.69bn	₦4.67bn
2.0	7,733	800	₦930m	₦930m
4.0	7,279	94	₦714m	₦713m
1.0	4,042	554	₦276m	₦276m
5.0	409	128	₦1.01bn	₦912m
6.0	54	13	₦364m	₦364m